Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

GFS outdoor pub run.  It is consistent with ECM and its ensembles, and there has to be a transition to summer at some point and I think we are at it, by day 8 or so of course, T192:

From then on is the key point, does this pattern gain traction or not, because that is the important thing for summer, if this holds for a while it could impact SSTs in the Atlantic and set up the summer, but it has a way to go with the SSTs, cold at the moment on run in to UK (from Atlantic).

So longevity of this spell is important, I think, to build the scenario both atmosphere and SSTs to send the jet stream north in the summer.  We will see...

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS outdoor pub run.  It is consistent with ECM and its ensembles, and there has to be a transition to summer at some point and I think we are at it, by day 8 or so of course, T192:

From then on is the key point, does this pattern gain traction or not, because that is the important thing for summer, if this holds for a while it could impact SSTs in the Atlantic and set up the summer, but it has a way to go with the SSTs, cold at the moment on run in to UK (from Atlantic).

So longevity of this spell is important, I think, to build the scenario both atmosphere and SSTs to send the jet stream north in the summer.  We will see...

I think a decent early summer is not out of the equation. There seems to be a fairly consistent signal for troughing around the UK in July though. Hoping this translates to some decent convection.

GLOSEA going cool and unsettled later in summer

CFS and its omnipresent July trough

Edited April 12, 2021 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

awaiting ec consistency but the upper ridge is edging ever east across the fi modelling

suspect we have to look out for a possible correction west  from times to time and scandi trough incursions dropping ssw  

[Sky Full]

GFS 0Z has a love affair with UK high pressure from the 21st to the 29th April, with air temperatures gradually rising through to the end of the run....

  
 

If high pressure does become a fixture over the UK at the end of April it bodes well for a warm start to May.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

GFS 0Z has a love affair with UK high pressure from the 21st to the 29th April, with air temperatures gradually rising through to the end of the run....

  
 

If high pressure does become a fixture over the UK at the end of April it bodes well for a warm start to May.  

Still not really dropped the rain event next Monday, but better than yesterdays runs

[Sky Full]

Here is the full ECM 0Z run showing 500s and 850s.  High pressure is also seen close by the UK for most of this run and the cold air being squeezed out.....

  

Could this be the spring board to Summer 2021....

[Sky Full]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still not really dropped the rain event next Monday, but better than yesterdays runs

Yes .... it’s not completely dry.   Here’s the GFS rainfall gif covering the 19th and 20th April.....

 

Its a bit too far out to be accurate though, and I expect this will be different by next weekend.

[minus10]

10 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Yes .... it’s not completely dry.   Here’s the GFS rainfall gif covering the 19th and 20th April.....

 

Its a bit too far out to be accurate though, and I expect this will be different by next weekend.

Looks like most of the rain will miss the southeast on that run. While it is good that the hp signal will result in a warming eventually the absence of rain will become an increasing issue for gardeners/growers i think....

[Bradley in Kent]

Morning all, I don't often post on this thread but thought I'd add my thoughts:

Assuming most here don't want continued cold, I'd say it's all eyes on the low beginning of next week. Firstly it'll stop a big build in the Atlantic. Then it'll encourage the high pressure behind it to topple. 

Once you have toppling high pressures with lows sent towards iceland, we can expect more seasonal and warmer weather! 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had  Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, but today i will indulge in 2 baps plus brown sauce , cheers gang ,STELLAS all round ..

[Timmytour]

4 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Yes .... it’s not completely dry.   Here’s the GFS rainfall gif covering the 19th and 20th April.....

 

Its a bit too far out to be accurate though, and I expect this will be different by next weekend.

is that the A1 corridor?

[mushymanrob]

This is turning out to be an extremely dry April in most places, and theres hardly any rain in the outlook either as high pressure is set to dominate our weather for the next two weeks. We are well on course for a record breaking (or near) dry April.

At least things should become less cold, and even warm if we can just get that ridge to nudge over to our East.

 

[Frosty.]

Just comparing the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z mean @ T+240 hours...they both look  pretty good don’t they?..I realise this is broad brushstrokes and no doubt when we see the finer detail there will be some ripples in the water but essentially the outlook is predominantly settled!

 

 

[Methuselah]

7 hours ago, minus10 said:

Looks like most of the rain will miss the southeast on that run. While it is good that the hp signal will result in a warming eventually the absence of rain will become an increasing issue for gardeners/growers i think....

No need to crack out the old Zak-O-Vision specs just yet, then!

[Jordan S]

A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening..

even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country.

high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east northeast. So it should stay dry for most especially at the moment for the east and north, this pattern would possibly allow warmer air to eventually move into parts of the country from the south or southeast.. low pressure could move close to or up in to most likely the south or southwest of England with rain and showers which would be slow moving with this more likely pattern, giving the chance of significant rain for some here but plenty of dry and sunny weather with occasional cloudier spells before then if it does happen. 

Was waiting on the Gem and Ecmwf midday update to appear on the site it has just updated and similar to their  previous update on things for next week..

Gem..

Ecmwf..

Edited April 13, 2021 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

Thank the Lord the GEFS 12Z operational run is at the cold end of the pack:

    

Edited April 13, 2021 by General Cluster

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly settled outlook as these charts suggest, very broad brushstrokes with a mean but as the mean represents the average, on balance it does look like high pressure (s) will be the main feature during the next few weeks..so...variable cloud / sunshine / temperatures..BUT not much rain apart from occasionally across the far NW..for most it looks predominantly fine with just a few showers dotted around until the high becomes stronger, chilly and cloudier near / on the east coast but that should  also change as the position / orientation of the anticyclone undergoes several changes..also worthy of note, the cold 850’s this week gradually get mixed out and next week onwards they look warmer, more in line with where they should be during mid / late April...doesn’t mean we are in for a warm spell but something more pleasant at least!  

Edited April 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Alexis]

20 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS outdoor pub run.  It is consistent with ECM and its ensembles, and there has to be a transition to summer at some point and I think we are at it, by day 8 or so of course, T192:

 

So longevity of this spell is important, I think, to build the scenario both atmosphere and SSTs to send the jet stream north in the summer.  We will see...

Note that with that SST image it's apparently impossible to have completely average, normal sea temperatures!

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T240:

And that is really all there is to say, the clusters have only one, from the outset to deep FI.  Sometimes that can mean excessive uncertainty, but with this I think it means pretty much that this pattern will hold for a while.  And a gradual warm up now.

[bluearmy]

49 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T240:

And that is really all there is to say, the clusters have only one, from the outset to deep FI.  Sometimes that can mean excessive uncertainty, but with this I think it means pretty much that this pattern will hold for a while.  And a gradual warm up now.

Deleted - out of date chart originally quoted ....

Edited April 13, 2021 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looking west you’d have to think there must be more than one cluster .....

There isn’t!  But are things coming from the west?  They haven’t been all winter (without delivering copious snow ) When was the weather last genuinely from the Atlantic, I’m struggling to remember.

Actually @bluearmy that chart you posted is from ECM // 0z of 6 March run, so maybe it is a moot point?

Edited April 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There isn’t!  But are things coming from the west?  They haven’t been all winter (without delivering copious snow ) When was the weather last genuinely from the Atlantic, I’m struggling to remember.

Deleted - out of date chart posted 

Edited April 13, 2021 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

My point is that there must be a cluster with a feature out west looking at that spread .....hence the single cluster is still reflective of entropy rather than certainty. 

Please see the edit to my previous post, your chart is not current.

[Iceman2606]

A warming trend showing up on the GFS 12z ensembles as we head into next week showing temps into the mid-teens widely with plenty of dry weather.☀

 

Damaging frost risk remains unfortunately.❄

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Please see the edit to my previous post, your chart is not current.

Yeah - apologies for being a prat!

the spread is fairly low this side of the NH so just maybe ......