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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

A very poor "effect" anywhere away from Northern areas as usual for the recent northerly. All signs are for a ridge of  high pressure to extend upwards in a southerly feed so spring warmth for many. A heat hater, I shall look forward to the cold months... Enjoy the heat... Personally can't stand it. Last post unless something interesting shows up

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

A very poor "effect" anywhere away from Northern areas as usual for the recent northerly.

I don’t normally comment on statements like this but must say your summation is wrong.

In Wiltshire we had settling snow Tuesday evening which lasted until Wednesday morning. Wednesday was then the coldest April day for 8 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
59 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I don’t normally comment on statements like this but must say your summation is wrong.

In Wiltshire we had settling snow Tuesday evening which lasted until Wednesday morning. Wednesday was then the coldest April day for 8 years.

Well. Guess you got fortunate then pal!! There always exceptions. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
40 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Well that didn’t take long then did it now ECM?

Another clobbering by the new GFS which has been days ahead on next week’s building ridge. 
 

Here’s yesterday’s 12z for Thursday:

Jet Energy heading NE and a trough spilling in towards Ireland bringing April showers for the foreseeable.

image.thumb.gif.d937d97069b2304775dae495803783c8.gif
And this mornings run:

image.thumb.gif.597764580656110bb7dfc49c9c0d93cc.gif
More energy peeling off SE and thus settled and dry across the U.K.

The issue for the ECM is this had been clear yesterday and it couldn’t cotton on, hence the late backtrack.

It’s still my favourite model, but maybe it’s going through a crisis in confidence? Form is temporary and all that...

But the new GFS really is the new kid on the block. It’s newfound consistency is probably down to ECMWF engineers giving it tips anyhow but we welcome any improvements to our medium range forecasting Arsenal especially during the challenging forecast period ahead (eg summer with neutral enso)

This is the current ECMWF summer forecast for the NH in MSLP

image.thumb.png.919170b3edade471b7c65ce51ff84ea9.png

Nothing to go off there in the Euro sector. 
 

I don’t think, unless Glosea chucks out a curveball tomorrow That this is going to be an easy summer to forecast. A weakening WQBO should finally be ready to go fully easterly by the late Autumn, it’s currently hanging around +0.82 but unless it nosedives in the next month or two shouldn’t be easterly enough to allow vast amounts of N blocking on its own over the next few months

image.thumb.png.cbd401fc7130f9350b5129cf3c7d75f7.png
You can see the blues (Eqbo) edging. Wry slowly down the top right quadrant of the chart. 30hpa is the key level which is still just about westerly. Could be good for coldies this winter, we’ll see, not a very reliable indicator in recent years...


Enso is strongly favoured to head back to neutral

image.thumb.png.e15c5f5c48f6e927ca815d49e4c9b19c.png

And solar cycle 25 is off to a sluggish start as expected. (Though some at the NCAR think it may turn out to be a strong one!)

solar-minimum-solar-maximum-comparison-3
EARTHSKY.ORG

A study of oppositely charged magnetic field bands, moving in the sun's northern and southern hemispheres, suggests the coming sunspot cycle - Cycle 25 - will be a particularly strong one. This result...

 

All in all these factors are unlikely, on there own, to force a settled / unsettled summer thus we are likely to be at the mercy of regular mjo fluctuations and rising and falling AAM. We will also need to rely on the NWP to guide us. Hence my appreciation of the improving GFS.

FWIW, I do fee there’ll be a bias towards a +nao signal this summer. With some hot and thundery spells interspersed with more settled periods and the standard singularities: the June monsoon and the mid/late August unsettledness. Drier in the SE. The ECM precip probability forecast product backs this up. 

image.thumb.png.d351645675bc487e5086c3b5d2f5a454.png

If we have a 2007 redux. You know who to blame!

Have a good weekend.

Josh.

Good post josh but amalgamations of the three summer months is always going to smooth out a number of variables

The monthly breakdowns show aug looking more pos NAO after June and moreso July are on the neg side. Certainly a propensity for Atlantic high through the early part of the summer before euro heights and pressure rises through aug and sept. Review required in a months time but July looks like it could be iffy with Atlantic ridging to greeny and nw scandi troughing ......... 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
29 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

A very promising sequence from the GFS from mid to late April showing more or less settled conditions extending across the UK leading to above average temperatures....

548D5474-D88E-4708-B5BD-16C7A2FED5BE.thumb.gif.925744ec5c30a500548a8320233cae76.gif  CB9FB836-EAD9-49BE-9B9A-4028E99485E7.thumb.gif.4e69a4ff24873b71261fd5ac193f98a9.gif
 

Certainly more Spring like than recently - and hopefully frost-free!

Yes certainly a big improvement- hopefully becoming more like last April. I hope we will have seen the last of the hard frosts and snow by early next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Before we get to what looks like a lovely high pressure building in for the middle of next week, there could be some snow on the ground for some tomorrow and Monday morning, the last couple of wags of winter’s tail getting on half way through meteorological spring. 

EURO4 shows snow showers, quite organised over Southern Scotland, these move south later in the night, with some accumulations predicted, on ground frozen pretty much nationwide by dawn tomorrow.

4836BDEB-7A28-411A-896B-5DABFEC33EE4.thumb.gif.aec95b0ef0fdcdd78a6d492a62161b5b.gifC1A07BB7-90FA-4B77-84A1-D26E60C230E5.gif4618F6C5-D2B1-4627-A39C-41B1EAE1C3A4.thumb.gif.b9a5c57f82a15af50bd3f61df2816e6e.gif
 


ICON picks up on the same showers for the Edinburgh area around midnight, moving down to NE England, and a batch of showers for the West Midlands working their way into the Marches, though it doesn’t really expect accumulations away from Scotland. 

3582AAF2-64EB-4CB9-BAD0-8C39C43619F8.thumb.gif.8410ff16b139b4dac2a5432ad8d5841d.gif7108EC26-11E0-47D7-8683-A51F4007E328.thumb.gif.bf8e219a41411b968b0e22e464e26817.gif


Agreement on something working in for NW England and Wales for early Monday morning, different angles on where exactly the showers will be.

DBF30D27-D7F4-4B1B-AC12-9D2DC0F630EE.thumb.gif.b7b3f27684f42d5d66d34de95d50d8de.gifDFB7535A-849E-42B8-BEE5-E6B6DA534A78.thumb.gif.727210193a690eedb3b51e253da613b7.gif

 

Aaah, and then to the middle of next week, GFS 0z for Thursday lunch time, now that is going to feel good during the day, medium / strong sunshine and hardly a puff of wind. Probably still wearing the pullover at that stage, though the high warming up in situ by next weekend. 

 

99402D04-8DA0-49F2-BA6C-AA55211B43BF.thumb.png.2156852740f4af4a53e791e12fb1acb0.png391354F3-2158-41CA-805C-66EF16817756.thumb.png.3f611c79f72ff7dd2f6ecc114f0fa634.png85E2FC17-A917-4A73-9198-91F46A064ACD.thumb.png.7fbf2bb19712a9fde7b28b9a07b1caa9.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by Cambrian
Carried a couple of images over twice, oh I didn’t know it worked like that, cool.
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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Good post josh but amalgamations of the three summer months is always going to smooth out a number of variables

The monthly breakdowns show aug looking more pos NAO after June and moreso July are on the neg side. Certainly a propensity for Atlantic high through the early part of the summer before euro heights and pressure rises through aug and sept. Review required in a months time but July looks like it could be iffy with Atlantic ridging to greeny and nw scandi troughing ......... 

Thanks BA. Yes agree the 3 month mean is smoothed so lacks utility as a predictive tool. Can I access the monthly breakdowns on the ECM site or are they behind a paywall?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Thanks BA. Yes agree the 3 month mean is smoothed so lacks utility as a predictive tool. Can I access the monthly breakdowns on the ECM site or are they behind a paywall?

Don’t  know about ec website josh - I’m seeing them behind a paywall but there is plenty free on ec nowadays 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Ok I freely admit I’ve cherry picked a pleasant chart from the Gfs 6z operational..but really, I could have shown a lot more charts!...in a nutshell..it’s an increasingly settled outlook which I’m sure the majority will be happy about? ☀️  

A44E6ED9-109E-4C33-BACF-934FB1A152D5.thumb.png.06897b10992f385ce0d2127241c7bdae.pngC778BC30-2839-47B1-8C35-40117E8630AF.thumb.png.1b0b364ce215ab8ee82c9c5af6a01ccb.png

What, you, Karl? Cherry-picking charts? Well, I never!

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

OMG..looking at the Gfs 12z operational..hello winter!!!..this spring is so confusing!.   ❄️  

A639F165-65E6-427F-B37F-3CE7090D6458.thumb.png.87be176c1a21a3be85d220cf6bce6691.png67CC4B7B-8AB6-4330-BD1D-6BB6A21822DB.thumb.png.690537844ed6f483b677c088a2692271.pngA47F3A91-F352-4C2B-93B6-105237F60BC7.thumb.png.63e62396fe8a668e2e18eb7876cacbde.png

 

Oh no....not another northerly   ........

image.thumb.png.e721976e7aeda22f498debc65c0d60a8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS looking good for settled high pressure, never mind the uppers, it is spring not summer after all!  

T192:

47B42E2A-180B-4406-AC04-DA9EE85200A9.thumb.png.c6adb92afa66c76442dcb7eb79242e82.png2AC1F751-6257-4C91-BE61-5BE8AC65DE29.thumb.png.3f7bc8623ee050cd42f0d281baabeb39.png

Jet stream heading north, so that’s all good.  

ECM even stronger support for a UK and don’t we need it!!  Same time T192:

CB927140-45B0-489A-B553-285D7A36A860.thumb.png.e3957b288e5532a7646826838dbf9a0c.png

Can it be true:  We’re heading out of winter and out of covid.  Good signs, GloSea5 should be out tomorrow for April update, first indications on a summer that we really need!!  

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
1 minute ago, minus10 said:

Oh no....not another northerly   ........

image.thumb.png.e721976e7aeda22f498debc65c0d60a8.png

Its ok...its a cold outlier on the ens..phew

image.thumb.png.24ba109d5fc0114c492d16f1b646423e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA has the Azores Scandi link up T144:

FABD057E-093D-4645-B99B-EAA1D09E3031.thumb.gif.c4b8cb31db0ee07d16aceebcb286d3ff.gif

As we have been seeing for a day or two, of course. 

High pressure moves NE T216:

99C8CF07-6272-4628-8A16-8C8DC8EE90E6.thumb.gif.d380a50962c3bf281ee58adc1f943c2c.gif

Not as strong as ECM.  

But let’s get the pattern in place first!

Edited by Mike Poole
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