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Going Early With A Winter 2021 - 2022 Prediction


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Anyone can have a guess!

Dec, Atlantic to dominate the whole month, 2-4 'named' storms thrown in, much wetter then average, also warmer than average! little to no snow at all away from northern hills/Scotland

Jan, Atlantic to dominate the whole 31 days, wetter than average, also milder and windier, flooding a problem by Mid Jan

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, low after low, wetter, windier and milder than average! by 20th or so, upto J or K in 'named' storms (assuming starts from A on 01 Nov), flooding obvios problem too

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anyone can have a guess!

Dec, Atlantic to dominate the whole month, 2-4 'named' storms thrown in, much wetter then average, also warmer than average! little to no snow at all away from northern hills/Scotland

Jan, Atlantic to dominate the whole 31 days, wetter than average, also milder and windier, flooding a problem by Mid Jan

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, low after low, wetter, windier and milder than average! by 20th or so, upto J or K in 'named' storms (assuming starts from A on 01 Nov), flooding obvios problem too

Sounds like 2013-2014 whilst others are plumping for 2010-2011 redux..

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
On 03/09/2021 at 19:10, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anyone can have a guess!

Dec, Atlantic to dominate the whole month, 2-4 'named' storms thrown in, much wetter then average, also warmer than average! little to no snow at all away from northern hills/Scotland

Jan, Atlantic to dominate the whole 31 days, wetter than average, also milder and windier, flooding a problem by Mid Jan

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, low after low, wetter, windier and milder than average! by 20th or so, upto J or K in 'named' storms (assuming starts from A on 01 Nov), flooding obvios problem too

I really, really hope that doesn't happen, but of course we know it can! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
23 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anyone can have a guess!

Dec, Atlantic to dominate the whole month, 2-4 'named' storms thrown in, much wetter then average, also warmer than average! little to no snow at all away from northern hills/Scotland

Jan, Atlantic to dominate the whole 31 days, wetter than average, also milder and windier, flooding a problem by Mid Jan

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, low after low, wetter, windier and milder than average! by 20th or so, upto J or K in 'named' storms (assuming starts from A on 01 Nov), flooding obvios problem too

 

3 hours ago, Earthshine said:

I predict a warmer and wetter than average winter.

Looks like two of you have already written off any chances of anything colder, drier or snowier than the average. Knew someone would do it in early September

Should really look at the underlying base factors we have going into the autumn period.

  1. Ascending out of solar minimum towards solar maximum - Favours cold usually
  2. Potential ENSO Neutral colder side through to Moderate La Nina depending on how ENSO develops this autumn - A colder signal
  3. A moderate EQBO (Moderate E -19.99 to -12.00) which is a colder signal and probably the most reliably cold of the options available here
  4. A potential for a tripole in the N Atlantic which favours a more blocked and colder pattern
  5. A negative IOD which should be in favour of colder conditions

Unknowns at this stage

Siberian snow cover extent as it has barely begun so no indicator here at present

Things that could go against us

  1. N Pacific is warm yet again and this has traditionally been a milder than average signal for the UK
  2. How strong will the polar vortex get as it is too early to tell yet
  3. Will there be a SSW to shake things up a bit. Better to get one of these if already in the milder pattern as getting one when it is already cold can mess up that pattern and turn things mild (Good example is winter 2001/2002)
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Things that could go against us

  1. N Pacific is warm yet again and this has traditionally been a milder than average signal for the UK
  2. How strong will the polar vortex get as it is too early to tell yet
  3. Will there be a SSW to shake things up a bit. Better to get one of these if already in the milder pattern as getting one when it is already cold can mess up that pattern and turn things mild (Good example is winter 2001/2002)

Yes, that has been an issue for many winters since 2013.  Hopefully those warm temps in the North Eastern Pacific will relent somewhat during the next few months!

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Sounds like 2013-2014 whilst others are plumping for 2010-2011 redux..

Hopefully it won't be like 2013-2014 what a vile winter that was. Just one brief dusting of snow one evening in the February was all we got here during the entirety of the Winter and even that was gone by morning. Can't think of a more snowless one.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
18 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hopefully it won't be like 2013-2014 what a vile winter that was. Just one brief dusting of snow one evening in the February was all we got here during the entirety of the Winter and even that was gone by morning. Can't think of a more snowless one.

That's one brief dusting of snow more than I had that winter, didn't see a flake!  

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, that has been an issue for many winters since 2013.  Hopefully those warm temps in the North Eastern Pacific will relent somewhat during the next few months!

It was warm last winter..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It was warm last winter..

I know, but it would be good to see it cool in time for this winter, giving us a stronger chance of a genuine cold season, particularly as many other signals are positive.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
24 minutes ago, Don said:

That's one brief dusting of snow more than I had that winter, didn't see a flake!  

Don,  I could mention many a year that most of us didn’t see a flake unless we went to our local shop and brought the chocolate variety

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 minutes ago, Don said:

I know but it would be good to see it cool  this winter, giving us a stronger chance of a genuine cold season.

Be interesting to see how warm it was during the colder winters of 08/09, 09/10, 10/11 and 12/13. I think it has been anomalously warm for a number of winters now, but it is just one factor. Last winter proved it can be cancelled out, indeed I think instead of heights in this region there was a fair bit of aleutian low activity.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Don,  I could mention many a year that most of us didn’t see a flake unless we went to our local shop and brought the chocolate variety

Haha, very true, especially in the snow dome where I grew up! 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Anything other than 2013-14 will do. That one has to go down as the worst for over a century. Still makes me want to throw up thinking about it, even 8 years on.

Some snow a possibility, perhaps into January after the usual Atlantic barrage. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

A mostly meridional flow pattern for much of this year. You would expect a early cold start to the winter for much of Europe/British Isles if this was to prevail , but as we know from recent past experience that a kind of blocking does not necessary deliver the preferred results for lovers of cold. However, encouragingly the Arctic seems to be heading for a early onset of cold as the the Polar night soon takes effect. I am going for 60/40 in favour of a colder than normal winter ( fingers crossed ) 

ps. Defo more snow surviving in the higher  Eastern Alps this summer. Not sure what that means though for the coming winter but still nice to see.

 

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Anything other than 2013-14 will do. That one has to go down as the worst for over a century. Still makes me want to throw up thinking about it, even 8 years on.

Some snow a possibility, perhaps into January after the usual Atlantic barrage. 

Was that the winter where it was just one deep storm after another, near constant gales and deluges? Especially December? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Well the ECM and Copernicus etc.  September Long Range is out. Now obviously this is 3 months represented in a chart and even then one month out forecast. And of course hidden in 3 months may be all sorts of extremes that might cancel each other out. However they are pro's and they work on this and publish it along with data supporting the previous attempts accuracy. I can imagine a very typical Autumn and very early winter with slightly warmer mean temp and about normal rainfall over the period. However there are sure sign of very cold North West Atlantic Jan - March. I am sure we will get cold North Westerlies on occasion if that was to come off, perhaps some direct northerlies off High Pressure build over the North West. So with September not a week old, I will go with a normal to Mild First half Winter. Jan to March and a sporadically cold with some notable Snow from the N/W second half and some very notable storms in the second half too as I expect the Jet to be on fire on occasion. I think storms will be the Story of early  2022

2 Meter Temperature

image.thumb.png.de14746d848a87527a946a133a0fd155.png

Percipitation

image.thumb.png.8105af63b21c83160463d8f4026df000.png

 

Global Sea Surface 

image.thumb.png.4a8e81b4bf7c96a25391c4c72218ee3b.png

Temperature 850 (Northern Hemisphere)

image.thumb.png.9ef7f6d2c4101b98524611b365d0a289.png

 

Surface Pressure

image.thumb.png.fe7f7ec3269322d4b2618c39a146e971.png

 

But Pushing out to 2nd half Winter and that cold pool. It's big enough to shake things up.

image.thumb.png.aeacdd6df0bc67af624b29cc8ad638f3.png

 

850's 

image.thumb.png.10ab7e86bacce6de70be57db2fe155b5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
11 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Anything other than 2013-14 will do. That one has to go down as the worst for over a century. Still makes me want to throw up thinking about it, even 8 years on.

Some snow a possibility, perhaps into January after the usual Atlantic barrage. 

2015-16, 16-17 and 19-20 nog much better from a cold and snow perspective..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
31 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Well the ECM and Copernicus etc.  September Long Range is out. Now obviously this is 3 months represented in a chart and even then one month out forecast. And of course hidden in 3 months may be all sorts of extremes that might cancel each other out. However they are pro's and they work on this and publish it along with data supporting the previous attempts accuracy. I can imagine a very typical Autumn and very early winter with slightly warmer mean temp and about normal rainfall over the period. However there are sure sign of very cold North West Atlantic Jan - March. I am sure we will get cold North Westerlies on occasion if that was to come off, perhaps some direct northerlies off High Pressure build over the North West. So with September not a week old, I will go with a normal to Mild First half Winter. Jan to March and a sporadically cold with some notable Snow from the N/W second half and some very notable storms in the second half too as I expect the Jet to be on fire on occasion. I think storms will be the Story of early  2022

2 Meter Temperature

image.thumb.png.de14746d848a87527a946a133a0fd155.png

Percipitation

image.thumb.png.8105af63b21c83160463d8f4026df000.png

 

Global Sea Surface 

image.thumb.png.4a8e81b4bf7c96a25391c4c72218ee3b.png

Temperature 850 (Northern Hemisphere)

image.thumb.png.9ef7f6d2c4101b98524611b365d0a289.png

 

Surface Pressure

image.thumb.png.fe7f7ec3269322d4b2618c39a146e971.png

 

But Pushing out to 2nd half Winter and that cold pool. It's big enough to shake things up.

image.thumb.png.aeacdd6df0bc67af624b29cc8ad638f3.png

 

850's 

image.thumb.png.10ab7e86bacce6de70be57db2fe155b5.png

Suggestive strong mid Atlantic heights building sufficiently north to allow cold polar outbreaks. Deep trough over Scandi. Possible NW-SE diving low pressure action.. would be very snowy in the north. Very plausible la Nina set up and meridional. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Separate Post for UK Met Office

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Suggestive strong mid Atlantic heights building sufficiently north to allow cold polar outbreaks. Deep trough over Scandi. Possible NW-SE diving low pressure action.. would be very snowy in the north. Very plausible la Nina set up and meridional. 

Yep, looking forward to the next update form UK Met Office, France, JMA etc as it will help, but even more so to next months updates. But I think the North and West, based on these forecasts have a chance of catching up on missed rainfall over the last few months in the second half of winter. This is also backed up by my long held non scientifically built assumption of anomalies being smoothed out over time, so 6 dry months are as near as often followed by 6 that are wetter than average, except over timescales that don't matter in the average life span of an individual. 

Is this chart indicative of higher than normal Pressure south of Greenland over Jan-Feb-March or a notable part of that period at least, perhaps several weeks, But something is causing the model to predict drier over that cold anomaly that also sits there. The surface pressure has all the hall marks of +NAO over the period, but there might be a masked west based Negative NAO in there.  We shall see.

 

image.thumb.png.89f70c714db91453173f3285ff90ef01.pngimage.thumb.png.469aa8326bffc0bfc3562512004f7109.png

 

Edited by Downburst
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 06/09/2021 at 12:36, stainesbloke said:

Was that the winter where it was just one deep storm after another, near constant gales and deluges? Especially December? 

Winter 2019/20? That winter was a stinker. No snowfall and milder than 2013/14.

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

2015-16, 16-17 and 19-20 nog much better from a cold and snow perspective..

At least 2016/2017 benefitted from a seasonabl January... Not sure about in the north but down in the south I seem to remember Jan. 2017 seeming seasonable most of the time and we even managed a decent snowfall on the 13th. There was also a bit of a forgotten easterly in the first-half of Feb. 2017 though I don't seem to remember anything about it so there must be a reason it's forgotten about! After a decently frosty & cold November it was a let down.

 

I'm off course! I gave my predictions and I still think 21/22 will be the one to deliver the goods properly this time. 20/21 was a teaser... I hope 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Isn't it too early for a Winter thread? Just like Summer threads always get locked until late April if they are started right at start of Spring. I think the same should apply to Winter threads.  

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