Going Early With A Winter 2021 - 2022 Prediction

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

2015-16, 16-17 and 19-20 nog much better from a cold and snow perspective..

2013/2014, 2015/2016, 2016-2017 and 2019/2020

Those were bad winters if you wanted anything cold and/or snowy.

I say and/or as despite their general mild themes I in Scunthorpe did manage to see some snow in all 4 of those winters even if it was either very brief or so insignificant that it may as well have not happened at all

2013/2014 was a horror show storm fest and after the relatively decent 2012/2013 winter it was a big return to a more extreme version of the normality we get these days in most winters in the UK. December and February were especially bad for storms whilst January was a bit calmer but still mild and wet overall. Got one very brief 1 hour wet slushy snow event on 30th January 2014 which never settled and that was as good as it got for snow that winter.

The following 2014/2015 winter although another mild one was a marked improvement on 2013/2014. Got Boxing Day snow as well as some settling snow late January/Early February, otherwise mild overall but at least more frosts than the previous winter.

2015/2016 was also a general horror show and was the first winter with named storms and I think we got quite some way through the list of names during this winter. December 2015 was the biggest horror show of all in terms of what a winter month should be. Had a higher CET than many autumn and spring months achieve in normal conditions and it almost temperature wise felt like summer at times and would have done so even more if the weather was more settled than it was. The only bit of snow I got the entire winter was during a brief cold snap in January when we had a few minutes short very light shower.

2016/2017 was a much calmer and drier winter and after the previous 3 winters was an improvement in that way. Was disappointingly mild however too. Had no covering of snow the entire winter either and only a couple of very brief light snow showers from that tame easterly in early February.

2017/2018 to follow was an improvement for snow. Missed out on the December snow event which was a disappointment but made up for it in February and March with the 2 beast from the east events.

2018/2019 promised a lot but delivered little and was a let down after the SSW potential came to nothing. Brief snow shower event late January into early February before we had our February "heatwave"

2019/2020 was a total horror show and was as bad as 2013/2014 but less stormy. Still just as zonal however and a winter I would like to forget about. Still managed some snow however but had to wait a very long time, 27th February to see it.

2020/2021 was the winter in this entire list that had the most potential to deliver snow but for me in Scunthorpe we missed out on several snow events that struck in other parts of the country. We only really got lucky with the 2nd week of February event here which was a shame considering what others got.

2021/2022? Wonder what this one has in store. Lets hope 2020/2021 was the teaser winter for this one and we hit the jackpot this time around. We shall see.

[damianslaw]

40 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

2013/2014, 2015/2016, 2016-2017 and 2019/2020

Those were bad winters if you wanted anything cold and/or snowy.

I say and/or as despite their general mild themes I in Scunthorpe did manage to see some snow in all 4 of those winters even if it was either very brief or so insignificant that it may as well have not happened at all

2013/2014 was a horror show storm fest and after the relatively decent 2012/2013 winter it was a big return to a more extreme version of the normality we get these days in most winters in the UK. December and February were especially bad for storms whilst January was a bit calmer but still mild and wet overall. Got one very brief 1 hour wet slushy snow event on 30th January 2014 which never settled and that was as good as it got for snow that winter.

The following 2014/2015 winter although another mild one was a marked improvement on 2013/2014. Got Boxing Day snow as well as some settling snow late January/Early February, otherwise mild overall but at least more frosts than the previous winter.

2015/2016 was also a general horror show and was the first winter with named storms and I think we got quite some way through the list of names during this winter. December 2015 was the biggest horror show of all in terms of what a winter month should be. Had a higher CET than many autumn and spring months achieve in normal conditions and it almost temperature wise felt like summer at times and would have done so even more if the weather was more settled than it was. The only bit of snow I got the entire winter was during a brief cold snap in January when we had a few minutes short very light shower.

2016/2017 was a much calmer and drier winter and after the previous 3 winters was an improvement in that way. Was disappointingly mild however too. Had no covering of snow the entire winter either and only a couple of very brief light snow showers from that tame easterly in early February.

2017/2018 to follow was an improvement for snow. Missed out on the December snow event which was a disappointment but made up for it in February and March with the 2 beast from the east events.

2018/2019 promised a lot but delivered little and was a let down after the SSW potential came to nothing. Brief snow shower event late January into early February before we had our February "heatwave"

2019/2020 was a total horror show and was as bad as 2013/2014 but less stormy. Still just as zonal however and a winter I would like to forget about. Still managed some snow however but had to wait a very long time, 27th February to see it.

2020/2021 was the winter in this entire list that had the most potential to deliver snow but for me in Scunthorpe we missed out on several snow events that struck in other parts of the country. We only really got lucky with the 2nd week of February event here which was a shame considering what others got.

2021/2022? Wonder what this one has in store. Lets hope 2020/2021 was the teaser winter for this one and we hit the jackpot this time around. We shall see.

A teaser like 08-09 perhaps..

[summer blizzard]

Agree with 2014, it is offensive that some deemed that a winter.

[Roger J Smith]

I have not done any work on this subject yet, my LRF issuance is mid October. But I have to say that it would not be too surprising if this coming winter had at least one month out of three that produced generally wintry conditions. We came close last winter (some areas got more snow and cold than others). But it has been some time now since a severe winter month, if you don't count intervals in winter 2012-13 I would say Dec 2010 the last truly severe month. For some of course, a few severe days like we saw late Feb 2018 to early March 2018 can really leave a lasting memory of wintry weather (southeast Ireland in particular).

But apart from the above, the next contribution I could make to this discussion would be in mid-October at the earliest. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

On 06/09/2021 at 12:36, stainesbloke said:

Was that the winter where it was just one deep storm after another, near constant gales and deluges? Especially December? 

That was the one. Unforgettably bad! 

[stainesbloke]

32 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

That was the one. Unforgettably bad! 

Think that was the one where my hometown by the Thames suffered extensive and very damaging flooding, with hundreds of families evacuated. It seemed to blow a constant gale for weeks and it just poured with rain. Was that when the coastal mainline in Dorset was washed away? Grim.

[PeteG]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Think that was the one where my hometown by the Thames suffered extensive and very damaging flooding, with hundreds of families evacuated. It seemed to blow a constant gale for weeks and it just poured with rain. Was that when the coastal mainline in Dorset was washed away? Grim.

No coastal mainline in Dorset. The line washed away was at Dawlish in Devon.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, PeteG said:

No coastal mainline in Dorset. The line washed away was at Dawlish in Devon.

Ah, thank you for the correction

[SqueakheartLW]

Another week after the last update it is now time for my 3rd CFS 9 monthly run update for winter 2021/2022 based on the same 00z run as always. The first two updates looked very promising from a colder perspective and the summary of these values from the two updates so far are below.

26/08/2021 00z 9 monthly run update 1

December26/08/21 CFS 00z          CET Means 1991-2020          Anomalies          Ice Days   
Av Max     6.90C                                CET Max     7.71C                   -0.81C
Av Min      2.61C                                CET Min      2.23C                  +0.38C                4 Ice Days
Av Mean   4.76C                                CET Mean  4.97C                   -0.21C                                   

January    26/08/21 CFS 00z            CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies          Ice Days    
Av Max      3.39C                                CET Max     7.37C                  -3.98C
Av Min       0.52C                                CET Min      1.95C                  -1.43C               10 Ice Days
Av Mean   1.95C                                 CET Mean  4.66C                   -2.71C                                   

February26/08/21 CFS 00z              CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
Av Max      5.64C                                CET Max      7.92C                  -2.28C
Av Min       1.36C                                CET Min       1.85C                  -0.49C               0 Ice Days
Av Mean    3.50C                                CET Mean   4.89C                  -1.39C                                    

March    26/08/21 CFS 00z               CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
Av Max      5.97C                                CET Max      10.39C               -4.42C
Av Min       2.55C                                CET Min        3.08C                -0.53C               0 Ice Days
Av Mean    4.26C                                CET Mean    6.74C                -2.48C                                    

Overall     26/08/21 CFS 00z     CET Means 1991-2020     Anomalies     Ice Days                    
Av Max      5.48C                         CET Max     8.35C              -2.87C
Av Min       1.76C                         CET Min     2.28C               -0.52C             14 Ice Days Overall
Av Mean    3.62C                         CET Mean  5.32C              -1.70C

02/09/2021 00z 9 monthly run update 2

December02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          4.52C                     Max          7.71C               -3.19C
Av Min           2.29C                     Min           2.23C              +0.06C          5 Ice Days    
Av Mean        3.40C                     Mean       4.97C               -1.57C

January    02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          4.58C                    Max          7.37C               -2.79C
Av Min           2.32C                    Min           1.95C               +0.37C          0 Ice Days
Av Mean        3.45C                    Mean       4.66C                -1.21C

February 02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          3.00C                  Max          7.92C               -4.92C
Av Min           -0.14C                 Min          1.85C                -1.99C            2 Ice Days
Av Mean       1.43C                   Mean       4.89C                -3.46C

March    02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                         
Av Max          5.61C                  Max          10.39C             -4.78C
Av Min           2.23C                  Min           3.08C               -0.85C             0 Ice Days
Av Mean        3.92C                  Mean        6.74C              -2.82C

Overall    02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                      
Av Max          4.43C                  Max          8.35C                -3.92C
Av Min           1.68C                  Min           2.28C                -0.60C            7 Ice Days Overall
Av Mean        3.05C                  Mean       5.32C                 -2.27C

As you can see here the CFS 00z 9 monthly runs on these particular days of the week have got off to a decent start from a colder perspective. Surely we can't possibly get 3 in a row. No way. Well time for me to reveal all now.

December 2021 based on 09/02/2021 CFS 9 monthly run

Well this looks like a promising start to December 2021 if you want cold weather and a risk of snow straight away. This is the continuation of the pattern that sets up back in November and doesn't this have a look of late November 2010 to the chart. Hmmm, is the CFS onto something here already, seeing another December to remember again I wonder?

Even by the 6th we are still stuck in this pattern of Greenland blocking and general N to NE winds so temperatures remain low for the time of the year and snow remains a threat with low pressure generally dominating

Signs of a change beginning to take place here as pressure starts to drop to the north and signs of pressure rising to the south

By the 13th the cold spell is over and SW winds are back and a big thaw of any snow is taking place

A few days of unsettled weather before it turns drier and colder in the lead up to Christmas

A high pressure dominated Christmas here. Seasonable for England and Wales but Scotland and N Ireland milder in that flow around the high pressure

An attempt to get a colder pattern back in fails here as a northerly doesn't set up as the next low comes in to cut it off.

The year closes out under a brief ridge of high pressure ahead of the next low to the west

December 09/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.47C                     Max          7.71C               -2.24C
Av Min           5.41C                     Min           2.23C              +3.18C          0 Ice Days    
Av Mean        5.44C                     Mean       4.97C               +0.47C

So far Decembers have come out as the least cold or mildest of the 4 months I feature in each update and this one is no exception to the rule with an overall mean of 5.44C which is +0.47C above the 1991-2020 mean. This is largely down to the very mild nights during this month which more than offsets the chilly days. The low pressure domination of the initial colder spell early in the month contributes a lot to the not very cold nights with temperatures by night not much lower than the daytimes. How will January 2022 shape up then?

January 2022 based on 09/09/2021 CFS 00z 9 monthly run

The new year gets off to a mild and zonal start with low pressure racing in from off the Atlantic. How long is this going to last I wonder

One storm after another here with generally mild temperatures sees a lot of wind and rain to open up the new year. However things are about to change after the 12th

First we pull down colder air here on the 13th

Then we bring in higher pressure over the colder air

This could be a potential snow event in the east as milder air engages with the colder air that is now in situ

Milder air does eventually win for a short while but the Atlantic here now looks much weaker than it did earlier in the month so not as mild as before

After a couple of days of high pressure what's this I see brewing here? Is this a Beast from the East stirring up I wonder?

The attempt at the beast is blown away by another stirring of the polar vortex over Greenland and it seems the Atlantic is coming back again for another go

We close out January 2022 here with another snow event potential as the Atlantic comes up against the cold block to the east

January    09/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.16C                    Max          7.37C               -2.21C
Av Min           2.74C                    Min           1.95C               +0.79C          0 Ice Days
Av Mean        3.95C                    Mean       4.66C                -0.71C

After two colder than average Januaries in the first 2 updates the 3rd one sees a continuation of this theme but not as cold as either of those updates with only a mean of 3.95C which is -0.71C colder than the 1991-2020 average. Chilly days again to a similar anomaly to December but the less mild nights here mean the overall anomaly is below average rather than above. The least cold January so far in my updates but then the first one was always going to take some beating since it was a very cold update. Will February come out cold again as in the first 2 updates. Both February and March have been most reliable for getting cold anomalies so far.

February 2022 based on the 09/09/2021 CFS 00z 9 monthly run

February 2022 opens up with the leftovers from that potential snow maker moving out into the North Sea, leaving a slack less cold westerly flow behind it.

We then enter a period where the Atlantic tries its best to blow away the blocking and/or colder air to the east and struggles quite a bit. Further potential for snow events here as a result, especially on the northern side of the areas of low pressure.

Eventually the Atlantic fails miserably and we end up in a gentle easterly instead so bringing the risk of snow showers in from off the North Sea here

A brief push of milder air here before .....

This looks like one beast stirring up here, almost 4 years on from the very memorable 2018 beast. What an anniversary that would be

Just unfortunately on this run the beast fails and we end up in less cold NW winds instead to round out February 2022 here.

February 09/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          4.93C                  Max          7.92C               -2.99C
Av Min           1.75C                  Min           1.85C                -0.10C            0 Ice Days
Av Mean       3.34C                   Mean       4.89C                -1.55C

Despite the milder looking charts at times this February update has still managed to come out colder than average overall with a CET of 3.34C which is -1.55C below the 1991-2020 mean. Starting to see a common theme with the Februaries here where all featured so far are at least -1C below the mean. If this continues on then there is hope at least February could come out with a colder anomaly overall and the best month so far for snow chances. Will the Merch continue on with its theme of very cold days again?

March 2022 based on 09/09/2021 CFS 00z 9 monthly run

March opens up with the resumption of milder SW zonality so no cold start like with my previous updates

High pressure however soon takes over after the brief Atlantic incursion

The high eventually pulls up to the north which opens the gates to one last blast of winter from the east

Doesn't that beasterly look good?

Then we switch the beasterly for a northerly as the block then retrogresses towards Greenland so continuing the cold spell

Those look very cold for mid to late March charts I would agree

Finally we see an attempt by the Atlantic to move in to end winter finally

Although we don't get to see it on these charts as this is the 31st March chart the milder spring weather does finally move in in early April.

March    02/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                         
Av Max          6.23C                  Max          10.39C             -4.16C
Av Min           1.55C                  Min           3.08C               -1.53C             0 Ice Days
Av Mean        3.89C                  Mean        6.74C              -2.85C

Yet another very cold March is delivered by the CFS and this time the mean CET is 3.89C which is -2.85C below the 1991-2020 mean and as before the daytime anomaly is substantially below average again at -4.16C below the 1991-2020 daytime mean. Even the March night times here are proving to be colder than average and have so far been the most reliable to produce colder anomalies. Is the CFS seeing a March 2013 here. I hope so.

Overall    09/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                      
Av Max          5.45C                  Max          8.35C                -2.90C
Av Min           2.86C                  Min           2.28C                +0.58C            0 Ice Days Overall
Av Mean        4.15C                  Mean       5.32C                 -1.17C

Overall we come out with another colder than average update which continues the trend so far by the CFS on the 00z 9 monthly runs I have decided to feature. This one however is the least cold update so far at 4.15C which is -1.17C below the 1991-2020 mean for the December to March period. Could have been colder if it were not for two failed beasterly attempts in January and February but to get 3 colder than average updates in 3 goes is not bad and gives early hope that this winter at least could be colder than average and supports the teaser winter idea too.

Summary of my 3 updates so far

I have featured the CET 1991-2020 means for each month as well as the anomalies I got for each update but left out the daytime and night time values and concentrated just on the means

Month                    26/08/2021 update          02/09/2021 update          09/09/2021 update          OVERALL AVERAGE

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C                   91-20     4.97C                   91-20     4.97C                    91-20     4.97C

                                Run        4.73C                  Run        5.54C                   Run        5.44C                    Runs      5.24C

                                Anom    -0.24C                 Anom    +0.57C                 Anom    +0.47C                  Anom     +0.27C

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C                 91-20     4.66C                    91-20     4.66C                   91-20     4.66C

                                Run        1.95C                 Run        3.42C                    Run        3.95C                   Runs      3.11C

                                Anom    -2.71C                Anom    -1.24C                   Anom    -0.71C                  Anom    -1.55C

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C                 91-20     4.89C                   91-20     4.89C                    91-20     4.89C

                                Run        3.50C                 Run        1.43C                   Run        3.34C                    Runs      2.76C

                                Anom    -1.39C                Anom    -3.46C                  Anom    -1.55C                   Anom    -2.13C

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C                91-20     6.74C                   91-20     6.74C                     91-20     6.74C

                                Run        4.26C                Run        3.92C                   Run        3.89C                    Runs       4.02C

                                Anom    -2.48C               Anom    -2.82C                  Anom    -2.85C                   Anom    -2.72C

OVERALL FIGURES

Dec to Mar            26/08/2021 update          02/09/2021 update          09/09/2021 update          OVERALL AVERAGE

                                91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C

                                Run        3.61C                   Run        3.58C                  Run        4.15C                    Runs      3.78C

                                Anom    -1.71C                  Anom    -1.74C                 Anom    -1.17C                   Anom    -1.54C

Looking good for cold so far I have to say. I will have the next update based on the 16/09/2021 CFS 00z 9 monthly run for you in a week's time. Hope to see a continuation of the colder theme with that run.

[Downburst]

UK Met Office have their seasonal long range out, apologies if already posted on other threads. Sticking to Oct/Nov/Dec and comparing to ECM, must say given the 3 month span here pretty much in agreement. Not unusual I suppose. Seems to me to continue to indicate a milder than average first half of winter overall, and probably continuing into Jan also, with at this extended range a predication of higher than average Dec/Jan/Feb. Of course all sorts will go on during this period including of course wintry weather. 

Pressure

 

2m Temperature

Precipitation

 

Forward looking and the likely very warn mid to north Atlantic, up to 55 degree north anyway continues to be very pronounced, with perhaps a weakening La Nina second half of winter. 

[damianslaw]

The higher than normal precipitation anomalies over Scandi and lower than normal over east Atlantic suggests possible scandi trough/mid Atlantic high and consequently temps may be colder at times or near average depending on how far north the heights in the Atlantic build. Conversely they could be further south and we end up with a mild NW fairky dry flow riding around the top. Both scenarios common under a La Nina base state. Both would suggest very tame co conditions, no major storm activity.. continuing the theme of 2021 which by and large has been an exceptionally benign year despite a few localised heavy rainfall events and heat and cold at times.. on a positive I guess with all the trauma of recent times and restrictions, a quiet winter is just what is needed. Don't need lots of weather related emergencies..

Edited September 14, 2021 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

UK Met Office have their seasonal long range out, apologies if already posted on other threads. Sticking to Oct/Nov/Dec and comparing to ECM, must say given the 3 month span here pretty much in agreement. Not unusual I suppose. Seems to me to continue to indicate a milder than average first half of winter overall, and probably continuing into Jan also, with at this extended range a predication of higher than average Dec/Jan/Feb. Of course all sorts will go on during this period including of course wintry weather. 

These LRF models have been disappointing so far for those wanting a cold winter.  However, very early days and plenty of time for changes.  A winter similar to last year wouldn't be so bad, but would be prefer to have more snow in the south!

[SqueakheartLW]

4th Winter 2021/2022 update

Yet again a week has passed and time for me to yet again look through the CFS 00z 9 monthly run for 16/09/2021 to see what it is predicting this time around. So far we have done very well for a colder outlook but can the CFS maintain this or will it let us coldies down. At some point it is bound to churn out a milder than average run but will it be this one?

Summary of my first 3 updates so far

I have featured the CET 1991-2020 means for each month as well as the anomalies I got for each update but left out the daytime and night time values and concentrated just on the means

Month                    26/08/2021 update          02/09/2021 update          09/09/2021 update          OVERALL AVERAGE

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C                   91-20     4.97C                   91-20     4.97C                    91-20     4.97C

                                Run        4.73C                  Run        5.54C                   Run        5.44C                    Runs      5.24C

                                Anom    -0.24C                 Anom    +0.57C                 Anom    +0.47C                  Anom     +0.27C

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C                 91-20     4.66C                    91-20     4.66C                   91-20     4.66C

                                Run        1.95C                 Run        3.42C                    Run        3.95C                   Runs      3.11C

                                Anom    -2.71C                Anom    -1.24C                   Anom    -0.71C                  Anom    -1.55C

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C                 91-20     4.89C                   91-20     4.89C                    91-20     4.89C

                                Run        3.50C                 Run        1.43C                   Run        3.34C                    Runs      2.76C

                                Anom    -1.39C                Anom    -3.46C                  Anom    -1.55C                   Anom    -2.13C

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C                91-20     6.74C                   91-20     6.74C                     91-20     6.74C

                                Run        4.26C                Run        3.92C                   Run        3.89C                    Runs       4.02C

                                Anom    -2.48C               Anom    -2.82C                  Anom    -2.85C                   Anom    -2.72C

OVERALL FIGURES

Dec to Mar            26/08/2021 update          02/09/2021 update          09/09/2021 update          OVERALL AVERAGE

                                91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C                   91-20     5.32C

                                Run        3.61C                   Run        3.58C                  Run        4.15C                    Runs      3.78C

                                Anom    -1.71C                  Anom    -1.74C                 Anom    -1.17C                   Anom    -1.54C

Looking good for cold so far I have to say. Now time to find out what update 4 brings, here we go.

December 2021

We open up December here with a brief northerly which looks as if it isn't going to do very much with a brief ridge before the next low approaches.

Low pressure then gets stuck out to the west whilst a block forms to our east. Which is going to win out?

The block forces the low down into Europe and opens the doors to an early beasterly and the first potential snow chance already at this stage.

As is typical for the UK the block soon collapses down into Europe and the Atlantic starts to come back in again

This is quite brief as the next low slides through the UK and down into Europe

High pressure then builds around the UK just in time for Christmas so a dry and frosty Christmas on this run

Yet again the high collapses to the south and threatens another Atlantic push again.

The Atlantic is really struggling here once again and this is how we close out December 2021

December 16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.45C                     Max          7.71C               -2.26C
Av Min           5.46C                     Min           2.23C              +3.23C          2 Ice Days    
Av Mean        5.44C                     Mean       4.97C               +0.47C

As with the first 3 updates December comes out slightly milder than average again with a mean of 5.44C which is +0.47C above the 1991-2020 mean. Like with the other updates there is a period of colder weather within the month and this time it is mid month that has the coldest weather. We even manage a couple of ice days during this colder snap when the mini beasterly comes. We are doing well for colder days so far but we really need to get those nights a bit colder to pull December down into a colder than average month.

January 2022

January 2022 opens with a small area of high pressure trying to cling on with lows all around trying to push it out of the way

The Atlantic wins out here as is typical and we enter the mildest part of this month

However the Atlantic push is quite brief again as high pressure builds back in over the UK

Another attempt by the Atlantic takes place here but ends up failing as the low slides down over the UK and into Europe again

Now we enter the coldest part of January 2022 and in fact the longest and most prolonged cold spell of the winter on this run. We get a brief easterly that brings in the cold before high pressure builds in on top of the cold.

We set up a bit of a battleground here with lows and fronts trying to get in over the UK no doubt bringing frontal snow events.

Eventually the Atlantic breaks through fully by the end of the month.

January    16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          4.03C                    Max          7.37C               -3.34C
Av Min           0.77C                    Min           1.95C               -1.18C          2 Ice Days
Av Mean        2.40C                    Mean       4.66C                -2.26C

January 2022 has yet again come out as a colder than average month on this run and with a mean of 2.40C which is -2.26C below the 1991-2020 mean we have stepped back in a colder direction for January compared with update 3 but still not as cold as update 1 was. We therefore maintain the colder than average signal for January 2022 which is a good sign the month could turn out this way if we can keep this up.

February 2022

We open up February 2022 with the Atlantic back in business after it's breakthrough at the end of last month

This just continues on and on for the first 11 days of the month.

We break out of this pattern with a brief northerly before high pressure builds in, giving the coldest part of February 2022 on this particular run

High pressure sticks around for a few days but not for that long

Eventually the Atlantic comes back for another go

This attempt doesn't get very far though as the low just dives down into Europe instead

We have an attempt here to get an easterly in but the dartboard low to the west is racing in to cut it off

The Atlantic succeeds here and we end the month with a long fetch SW wind and very mild air is pushing in.

February 16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.61C                  Max          7.92C               -2.31C
Av Min           2.82C                  Min           1.85C                +0.97C            0 Ice Days
Av Mean       4.21C                   Mean       4.89C                -0.68C

This is a rather disappointing 4th update for February 2022 if you are looking for anything significant in the colder department. Even though the mean comes out at 4.21C which is still -0.68C colder than the 1991-2020 mean this is a rather more Atlantic dominated February 2022 compared with the other updates. Still a colder signal but much less so and I hope this is a blip rather than a new trend setter.

March 2022

March 2022 gets off to a very mild start here with the mildest temperatures of the month on this run appearing early on in the month.

We build high pressure in over these milder temperatures so we lower the night time values but maintain double figure maximums at this stage.

Although we turn winds to the east here it is not a cold air mass so temperatures remain above average at this stage

Back comes the Atlantic yet again to ruin any chance of a last blast of winter.

The Atlantic enters maximum gear here and we see one storm after another.

It is only right at the very end of March 2022 that we settle things down again. We turn winds into the east again but this does little to bring in any form of significant cold at this stage.

March    16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                         
Av Max          7.81C                  Max          10.39C             -2.58C
Av Min           4.61C                  Min           3.08C               +1.53C             0 Ice Days
Av Mean        6.21C                  Mean        6.74C              -0.53C

As expected when looking at the March charts this has come out as the least cold March 2022 update so far and after some very cold updates this is no real surprise. We still scrape into colder than average territory though with a mean of 6.21C which is -0.53C below the 1991-2020 mean but with an anomaly like that we are very much close to average.

Overall    16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                      
Av Max          5.72C                  Max          8.35C                -2.63C
Av Min           3.42C                  Min           2.28C                +1.14C            4 Ice Days Overall
Av Mean        4.57C                  Mean       5.32C                 -0.75C

Overall another colder than average update but much less so than the first 3 which is to be expected considering the February and March figures on this update bringing us back closer to the mean values for this time period. Overall we came out with a mean of 4.57C which is -0.75C below the December to March 1991-2020 mean. A bit of a let down update to be fair but then I was expecting some during the updates I am doing.

OVERALL FIGURES

These were the overall figures after the first 3 updates

Month                    OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C

                                Runs      5.24C

                                Anom     +0.27C                                

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C

                                Runs      3.11C

                                Anom    -1.55C                                  

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C

                                Runs      2.76C

                                Anom    -2.13C                                  

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C

                                Runs       4.02C

                                Anom    -2.72C                                  

 

Dec to Mar            OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS

                                91-20     5.32C

                                Runs      3.78C

                                Anom    -1.54C                                   

Now here are the updated figures to reflect the new 4th update.

Month                    OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 4 RUNS

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C

                                Runs      5.29C (up +0.05C)

                                Anom     +0.32C                                

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C

                                Runs      2.93C (down -0.18C)

                                Anom    -1.73C                                  

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C

                                Runs      3.12C (up +0.36C)

                                Anom    -1.77C                                  

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C

                                Runs       4.57C (up +0.55C)

                                Anom    -2.17C                                  

 

Dec to Mar            OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS

                                91-20     5.32C

                                Runs      3.98C (up +0.20C)

                                Anom    -1.34C                                   

I will be bringing update number 5 next week for the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021 to see where the CFS stands on winter 2021/2022 next time around. Hope it can shift back towards a more colder pattern after this latest not so cold update.

[SqueakheartLW]

With our current very warm September with a running mean of 17.1C which isn't a big amount lower than the July CET of 17.7C as of the 20th this has got me thinking about other years that have had warm Septembers or Septembers warmer than any of the summer months before them and then looked at what happened in the following winters.

I have looked through all years CET's for the summers as well as the Septembers and used 2 categories

1. September CET's that were equal to or warmer than the August CET value the month before it
2. September CET's that were equal to or warmer than the highest CET value from the summer just before it

Now looking at this year's September CET of 17.1C this currently stands +0.3C above the all time record September CET of 16.8C from 2006 and this is seriously looking under threat of falling this year. If the predicted warmer spell comes off this weekend then a 17C CET is looking more and more likely but could July be even beaten this year on top too. That would be some achievement and would stand out as the September equivalent of a December 2015 if it did happen.

Category 1

Now I will begin with the category that is much easier to achieve overall, Septembers that are equal to or warmer than the August just before it. This has happened a total of 12 times in the CET record in the years shown below in the screenshot

What is notable by the winters that followed these 12 years is how many milder than average CET values are present but there are some notable cold CET's in some of the winter months and a few of the winters came out colder than average. I have included an ENSO status and QBO status but these both only cover a small number of these years.

What could be good news for winter 2021/2022 for cold lovers is how 2006/2007 had an El Nino and 1956/1957 was a Neutral QBO winter as this take 2 of the milder winters out of the running potentially. However when averaging out all of the CET values and anomalies we come out almost bang on average for the Decembers, slightly milder than average for the Januaries and colder than average for the Februaries with the overall signal close to or a little below average overall which came out as a surprise to me.

Maybe having an equal to or warmer September than the August before it isn't as bad a signal as you might think for the following winter if you want something colder.

Category 2

Now for the tougher category overall and the one that September 2021 has the potential to achieve this year. Not only does the September have to be equal to or warmer than the August before it but it has to be equal to or warmer than any of the June, July or August CET's before it in the same year.

This one took some searching and only 2 years met the criterial I specified for this one and they are below in the screenshot

Only 1659 and 1890 met this criteria which shows how rarely this happens. Note 1659 fit into both groups which could be significant in terms of what could happen this year if we can get September's final CET value to be at 17.7C or higher in the end.

Note that there is also another significant year here too, particularly because of the December that year, 1890. Both of the winters following these Septembers that met the criteria were significantly colder than average in both the December and January with the February less so in the case of Feb 1891 and Feb 1660 was milder than average but overall a colder signal for both winters.

The other notable thing is that we had a La Nina in 1890/1891 winter too so we meet 2 criteria at least if we can get September 2021 to 17.7C CET or higher.