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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    14 hours ago, Lance M said:

    Most models have showed something clipping Kent for a few days now. The worry with a Kent Clipper is when the models already show it taking that path 48 hours out, it can only really be corrected eastwards nearer the time and then miss us altogether. 

     

    I think on Sunday I'm going to have to make a call whether I chase to Kent or not! I'm moving back to the Isle of Wight in a few weeks so it'd likely be my last chance to jump in the car and chase on the 'mainland'. 

    If this is thundery then its an interesting update from the BBC. 

     

    Screenshot_20210508_082914_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20210508_082924_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20210508_082937_com.android.chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 08 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 09 May 2021

    ISSUED 07:29 UTC Sat 08 May 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Late on Saturday night, warm advection from France towards SE England will occur within a strong southwesterly flow regime on the forward side of a large upper trough. Forecast profiles exhibit warming in the ~800mb layer with moistening around ~700mb. The net result is increasing mid-level instability and the chance of elevated convection developing over the English Channel and NE France, running NE-wards into Sunday morning (continuing beyond the end of this forecast period). Guidance varies in the coverage of precipitation, in part due to much of it evaporating in dry near-surface layers, but the general consensus is most lightning activity will probably remain over NE France/BeNeLux and the southern North Sea where the main Theta-E / Theta-W plume exists. That said, some lightning activity could occur over parts of SE England / East Anglia (especially Kent), but confidence is lower here and so have refrained from introducing a SLGT at this stage. 

    Elsewhere, in Ireland relatively shallow convection will develop on Saturday afternoon/evening in northern areas, and then overnight in western areas within a strongly-sheared environment - gusty winds may occur, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. On Saturday evening/night elevated convection/showers will also drift into western Scotland.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-05-08

     

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Arome: as keen as ever!

     

    Screenshot_20210508-103649.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    11 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:
    p09gzsq6.jpg
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    What appears to be a tornado has been caught on film racing through a car park in Gateshead.

     

    What a nutter!,...he was just stood there,brave man😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    A little bit of interest has been showing up for the far southeast of England for later on tomorrow as a warm plume moves across from France bringing much warmer temperatures and a risk of some thunderstorms. Where it seems quite likely that the warm air will move into East Anglia and the south-east, it is a little more uncertain relating to where any storms will be. 

    Warm, moist air to the east of a cold front moving eastwards will allow temperatures tomorrow afternoon to rise above 20c with 21-22c possible in parts of East Anglia. After so long with temperatures struggling to break into the mid teens, it will feel warm. There is then the risk that heavy showers and elevated thunderstorms may brush into the far south-east, but there is uncertainty as to how far west this will occur. Due to these storms being elevated they should be able to cross the channel with little problem. The bigger issue is whether the storms will remain across the near continent, where the risk of storms is greater. 

    Showers are showing running into the south and east on the 00z run of the NMM, ahead of the cold front bringing non thundery rain across Central parts.

    nmmgif.thumb.gif.a7b9496f7b2d31442fccaeb8e8332a6b.gif

    The latest MUCAPE charts do show instability getting into the far south east by late afternoon and then quickly moving north along the Essex/Suffolk coastline through the evening. Highest risk in the UK appears to be Kent.

    902846921_nmmgif(1).thumb.gif.4e3cade53a968edbd345a7fb82deed23.gif

    There are still several runs before this unfolds and I will be keeping an eye on the high resolution runs. This could occur further west with even London and the Home Counties into the firing line along with more of East Anglia. It could likewise be further east and only affect the near continent. To me, this has Kent clipper written all over it. 

    image.png.270de9cf70fdfe68aada762b458dca63.png

    Grabbed a screenshot, I think most in the South East would like that to happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    Posted (edited)

    I may, if I can get time head eastwards towards Suffolk tomorrow if anything beefy does fire up. There is some good ingredients in this window, question is, will it deliver for us? or remain on the main continent, or fire up over the N Sea like the 21st August last year..!?

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    NMM 12z having none of it for the SE tomorrow night, keeping the instability off shore. Every fibre of my being says we won’t be seeing anything here tomorrow night - happy to be proved wrong though.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    FAX chart shows the area of interest quite nicely, although the main activity would be heading  through the channel and up in to the North Sea, somewhat. Heavy showers would still be possible in the far Southeast, running up through East Anglia.

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.99662d2f3a35763f37b73e54d9300620.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

    Dan's thoughts for tomorrow. I'm verging more towards not driving down to Kent right now, but I hope things look more positive in the morning.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    First elevated thunder and lightning of the year here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent

    Distant thunder and flashes to my south. A little teaser before tonight's possible action 🙃

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    The cell that’s producing the majority of the rumbles and occasional flash: 

    277694E4-CA7F-4C4B-B328-375608EB41C1.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    Posted (edited)

    Certainly a bit more activity than I anticipated this morning in the channel!

    Screenshot (62).png

    B019AFE8-E906-4A63-81C3-31FD478C38FC.jpeg

    Edited by LightningLover
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    12 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Certainly a bit more activity than I anticipated this morning in the channel!

    My gut feeling is this morning's activity will possibly be more noteworthy than the evening's offerings - hopefully not, but we'll see how the day evolves 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)
    37 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    The cell that’s producing the majority of the rumbles and occasional flash: 

    277694E4-CA7F-4C4B-B328-375608EB41C1.jpeg

    Is it still going? 

    Seemingly just arrived here. 

    Edit

    Heard thunder, at least it sounded like it, okay hearing the same unusual sound twice, it's surely thunder. 

    Just seen the radar, wasn't expecting that! 

    For those who have also just woken up. 

    Screenshot_20210509_065925_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.b421d441b8f4f3d789b906d353828ad0.jpg

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Currently looking out towards the channel, just saw a lovely orange CG!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)
    8 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Currently looking out towards the channel, just saw a lovely orange CG!

    Looked out the window, to a quick flash of lightning,although it's looking like it's going to just scrape the South East a bigger storm that could happen tonight could if it follows the same trajectory strike right into the heart of the South East. 

     

    Screenshot_20210509_071108_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Current view towards the Eastern Channel  (forgot to charge my good camera so I’m making do with my phone’s!)

    3A61DFAB-C5CC-4CEA-BAA5-A3536CCFD61C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Veiw towards the channel for me, its coming straight at me, if my angle is good then I realised the lightning will come straight at me. 

    IMG_20210509_071924.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    7 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Current view towards the Eastern Channel  (forgot to charge my good camera so I’m making do with my phone’s!)

    3A61DFAB-C5CC-4CEA-BAA5-A3536CCFD61C.jpeg

    Time to video, make a time-lapse with it coming towards us, take a frame of the best lightning seen and post all or at least the lightning pictures on here. 

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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-19 10:28:59 Valid: 19/09/2021 1200 - 20/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 19TH SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

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      Nick F
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