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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
42 minutes ago, Harry said:

Disappointing swing in the overnight modelling (after yesterday evening was looking promising for many).

EURO4, AROME and WRF NMM 5KM all showing what to my eye is a Kent clipper (assuming all lightning stays on the eastern edge). 

image.thumb.png.166b65334f5653309e889cbe87131bef.pngimage.thumb.png.54ccfd510ca050dcb6a54e1506e074ab.pngimage.thumb.png.7f08b7ef0bf74d37f85998f9a23c70f5.png

Doesn't look too much like a Kent clipper to me! These look fairly promising

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
7 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Tomorrow will be the summer equivalent of,  where will it snow tomorrow, and just like snow, storms can be equally tricky to pin down, it's just going to be a case of keeping up to date with the latest runs, and hoping for the best.

And if you are really desperate, get in the car and place yourself in in a location that allows you to try and intercept anything that appears on the radar, while also checking in on this fabulous community

I'm going all in for tomorrow, and will travel further afield if necessary, as I am going up north for the weekend, so will likely miss out on the imports.

Camera gear ready and all set for tomorrow,  we just need mother nature to do her thing ⛈️?️⚡ I will also be wearing my lucky underpants just in case

PXL_20210615_224907681.jpg

PXL_20210615_224917083.jpg

I like the weather pants!

I have weather themed socks and a mug…both will be out today

Good luck today/tonight everyone.  All eyes on the French radars…

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Loving the latest UKV run for East sussex! Exciting day/night ahead...

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any pics mate?!

image.thumb.png.cd589511c305c6d7f6b2ed145d4202ba.pngimage.thumb.png.2576fe5257d67707ccd6a997a2841536.png

May 27th-28th 2017 Vibes, only more of a direct hit seemingly!

Edited by LightningLover
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

1256953869_Screenshot_20210616-080326_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.724968477e22db07d9f34ff63e2e2ae8.jpg

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Jun 2021

ISSUED 07:10 UTC Wed 16 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

It should be stressed that destabilising plume events are always fraught with uncertainties given the highly complex situation at play, and therefore there is always an element of uncertainty in these situations. An upper trough over the North Atlantic will continue to extend southwards through Wednesday, merging with an upper low to the west of Iberia. The net result is the mid/upper-level flow over the UK will become increasingly backed with time, allowing advection of a high Theta-W plume over western Europe into SE Britain by Wednesday evening. Forecast profiles reveal a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) with substantial moistening of the mid/upper levels as Wednesday evening progresses. Minor shortwave(s) embedded within the SW-ly flow aloft is likely to coincide with isentropic upglide to aid forced ascent and generate deep convection rooted within/atop this EML.

Firstly, there is a small risk that an isolated shower or two could develop during the late afternoon/early evening over England, in response to diurnal heating and low-level convergence. However, profiles look rather dry with a mid-level warm nose which would likely limit the depth of any convection in either case. Otherwise, the main period of interest is through the evening and night hours. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for a few scattered surface-based thunderstorms that could develop over northern France during the late afternoon/early evening period. In either case, elevated thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the leading edge of the EML during Wednesday afternoon and evening, initially across N / NW France and the English Channel, tracking northeastwards across CS / SE England mid-late evening and then across the Home Counties and East Anglia during the remainder of the night. Effective shear (both speed and directional) is supportive of multicells and eventual upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS), but also may promote some rotation in stronger updrafts which will increase the risk somewhat of locally large hail. 

It is possible that thunderstorms could develop as far west as Dorset initially, and while individual cells may track to the NNE the focus for lightning activity could appear to shift more NE or ENE as the atmosphere becomes a little worked over / modified further west, and storms continue to develop in the most unstable air along the leading edge of the main continental Theta-W plume. There may be more than one main wave of thunderstorms too - the initial wave on the leading edge of the EML, and then as a low level jet strengthens through the overnight hours this could promote both better advection of Theta-E northwestwards and provide forced ascent for further heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms (these most likely on the eastern flank of the rain shield) across portions of central, southern and eastern England. However, this is highly uncertain with a large spread between model guidance at present, but could bring the risk of lightning further west than the initial wave, depending on how the event evolves through the night. 

PWAT in excess of 40mm is rather high for UK standards, and brings the threat of locally large rainfall totals - especially where back-building of cells occurs - and hence the risk of surface water flooding. However, it should be noted that the spatial extent of the highest rainfall accumulations may not necessarily be in the same areas with the greatest lightning activity (i.e. displaced to the west). Lightning will likely be quite frequent at times, especially in SE England. Meanwhile, inverted-V profiles suggest the potential for strong gusts of wind, potentially as high as 40-50mph locally, and as mentioned earlier there could be some locally large hail from the strongest cells (again most likely in SE England).

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-06-16

 

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8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think latest 03z has it further east still

I find the UKV high unreliable in these situations, quite a few times it over corrects westwards and the jumps massively eastwards exactly like it has today. Disappointing.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
42 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

image.thumb.png.166b65334f5653309e889cbe87131bef.pngimage.thumb.png.54ccfd510ca050dcb6a54e1506e074ab.pngimage.thumb.png.7f08b7ef0bf74d37f85998f9a23c70f5.png

Doesn't look too much like a Kent clipper to me! These look fairly promising

This is what I’m looking at in terms of proper thunderstorm potential that overlaps with the best instability.

The other mass Thursday morning may contain some thunder but my fear is (usually) that time of day storms tend to rapidly weaken in terms of electrics and you’re left with a mass of semi-convective rain. 

F48342AB-0390-4551-BAC8-EBFBB8C86C80.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Unsurprisingly, models have now corrected eastwards again. IOW eastwards holds the best chance of frequent lightning, impressively high PWAT values in excess of 40mm could give rise to localised flooding problems too in some of the more intense cells. 

The UKV as noted yesterday looked "out there" against the rest of the output in terms of it's extreme westerly track, this mornings run looks about right to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

First time posting here since registering in 2012. Will be watching avidly from Portishead. Barometric pressure here has dropped 6 mb since yesterday evening, and humidity is high.

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Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

The way all this has yo yo'd left to right and back again, continuously each day. I would think now casting is where its at, I think its anyone's game from as far as Southampton pushing towards Kent and heading north north east. Really looking forward to this evening and I hope all of us can be within a shout.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I am planning on chasing later but looking at all the latest charts and forecasts I will probably have a long drive. No problem though, if I get to see a big night time storm with plenty of lightning it'll be worth it. My current thoughts from here would be to drop down the M1 and settle somewhere near the M1/M25 junction. Work means I probably can't get there until around 7/8pm but this should be early enough. I am hoping at that time there will be less traffic and I can use the M25 to get to the east of London if necessary. 

My current thoughts are IOW eastwards with Kent, Essex, London and East Sussex probably best placed.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

Looking at the risk chart it seems anything south of the M4 corridor could be in for a good light show, i have seen similar setups to this and normally anything east of Salisbury is where the action happens but i wonder if it will be like the bournemouth supercell that happened some years back

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
11 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

Looking at the risk chart it seems anything south of the M4 corridor could be in for a good light show, i have seen similar setups to this and normally anything east of Salisbury is where the action happens but i wonder if it will be like the bournemouth supercell that happened some years back

Ahh yes, cracker that was. Was perfectly placed to the east to watch the show and you could see the striations on the anvil when it lit up.

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Just now, Azazel said:

Ahh yes, cracker that was. Was perfectly placed to the east to watch the show and you could see the striations on the anvil when it lit up.

Remember that well. I was living in an elevated part of the village then and could watch it approach!

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Posted
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Heat
  • Location: North Hykeham, Lincoln

These events make me hate living in Lincoln. :( :(

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30 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

Looking at the risk chart it seems anything south of the M4 corridor could be in for a good light show, i have seen similar setups to this and normally anything east of Salisbury is where the action happens but i wonder if it will be like the bournemouth supercell that happened some years back

Six years ago now! Was easily the best storm I’ve seen down here and probably the last one I’d rate more than 4 or 5 out 10. Been dire since!

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Our area of interest is showing nicely on Satellite, in the Biscay/Nantes area. Expect our skies down here in the South to fill up with wonderful Ac Cas and/or Floccus through the afternoon.

 

Capture.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Oooh it looks its on for me

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Just now, snowrye said:

Oooh it looks its on for me

Fingers crossed!!

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