Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Uh-oh - an eastward correction on the 18z goofus...

Couldnt make this up lol!!ecm looked slightly further west on the 12z but now gfs goes east!!nowcast all over this one!!

[Mapantz]

Those projected PWAT's are ridiculous!

Could be some serious flooding issues.

[Chris K]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Uh-oh - an eastward correction on the 18z goofus...

The 18z GFS at first glance seems better for prolonging thundery outbreaks from the South though?

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

The 18z GFS at first glance seems better for prolonging thundery outbreaks from the South though?

Yeah looks very close to the UKMO for future thundery outbreaks! ECM odd one out of the big 3 for that scenario now.

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Chris K said:

The 18z GFS at first glance seems better for prolonging thundery outbreaks from the South though?

Indeed - and a further round of storms hits the South Coast very early Saturday morning. Less than ideal timing but as long as round one delivers the nighttime goods it won't matter so much!

[oliverek7]

It’s now the time when I get anxious for every new model output . Stop bloody shifting around and making me nervous

[oliverek7]

Tell you what, gfs 18z is a good’un with successive lows coming up from the south all the way till Sunday

[Sentinel]

9 hours ago, viking_smb said:

jellyfish are a nuisance mate, you tend to get lions mane, compass, cynaea llamarckii (blue jelly) and barrel jellyfish (which are harmless) off southend, 

Compass, Lions mane and blue jelly stings though, 

Around us when im in the channel at work (CBYC) I tend to see compass, barrel and moon jellyfish though and I have great pleasure of bombing through with our ribs, in the bay there are no jellys due to fresh water (thank god)

 

What colour were they mate? 

Some are clear but a lot of them are blue and they're the ones that sting. It's like a slow burn - so I'm told - and lasts for about half an hour and best treated with salt water (!) or vinegar (proper stuff that has been brewed). There are thousands of them in Southend at the moment, they came in on the tide last week and have been around ever since. It's stopped me from swimming in the sea which is frustrating as I was sea swimming in January and then again in March in my wetsuit but not in June when it's really warm and beautiful.

[Thunder and Lightning]

The ARPEGE and ICON runs still taking things further West, the rest seem to have settled on further East where places like London may still be in play, but that's only if we don't get any more shifts east....

[The PIT]

Definite shift eastward overnight which takes us into the dry zone mostly.

[Thunder and Lightning]

UKV has shifted back a bit west, which is great news. If things stay like this and hopefully don't shift any more East than it could still be a good event for many.

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

UKV has shifted back a bit west, which is great news. If things stay like this and hopefully don't shift any more East than it could still be a good event for many.

Wow that looks like it shifted back to its original position from a couple of days ago!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Definitely, a very decent thundery days Thurs-Fri-Sat on the UKV. Majority of the models actually have the thundery mass moving up through SW/CS England (E Devon/Somerset/W Dorset) on Thursday, whereas GFS/ECM/UKV with the latter less so, more across CS/SE England so still looking good in my eyes.

[Harry]

WRF NMM 5KM coming into range and shows circa 1000 J/Kg coming into the SE quadrant early hours of Thursday.

While it chops and changes between runs, I find this model at this range to be one of the best indicators for storm risk, particularly within 24 hours of an event.

Lets keep our fingers crossed for something.

[Mapantz]

I think the thunder risk is going to be more in the East. The problem is going to be rainfall.. if moisture levels are going to be as high as the PWAT's suggest, that could lead mainly to a mess of heavy rain.

[Pursuer of Storms]

Had intended to post this when I took it on the 6th. Probably just another scud but this did look for about 20/30 seconds like a very weak funnel over MK. I seem to get one or two that I have to double take or ask about every year. Very eager to see what this week brings.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Pursuer of Storms

[Harry]

24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think the thunder risk is going to be more in the East. The problem is going to be rainfall.. if moisture levels are going to be as high as the PWAT's suggest, that could lead mainly to a mess of heavy rain.

Agreed - when the PWAT levels were shown it did concern me a little that we could get torrential convective rain but little in the way of lightning activity - I’ve seen that many times in the past. 

 

[PiscesStar]

13 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Those projected PWAT's are ridiculous!

Could be some serious flooding issues.

And power outages?? 

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

WRF NMM 5KM coming into range and shows circa 1000 J/Kg coming into the SE quadrant early hours of Thursday.

While it chops and changes between runs, I find this model at this range to be one of the best indicators for storm risk, particularly within 24 hours of an event.

Lets keep our fingers crossed for something.

Hi. Do you have a link for this please? Thanks in advance 

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Hi. Do you have a link for this please? Thanks in advance 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine de WRF-NMM 0.05x0.05° (5km) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est) et l'Italie, Royaume-Uni, Espagne et...

The 00z run looks a lot better than the 06z!

[suffolkboy_]

15 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Those projected PWAT's are ridiculous!

Could be some serious flooding issues.

Reflected in the MetOffice warnings of 30mm in an hour, and 50mm in 2-3 hours. 

[Petorious]

Is it possible that those PWAT levels could also come frome some extremely large thunderstorms as well as the feared just large amounts on non thundery rain?

Really keeping fingers crossed for a decent thunderstorm!

[ChannelThunder]

Starting to get in range for the 3-hourly UKV runs now, and EURO4's next run goes out 'til 20z on Weds I believe. Fingers crossed they show what the vast majority of us want: no or very little eastward correction! WRF 06z looks positive as it keeps Dorset-eastwards fully in the game.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Starting to get in range for the 3-hourly UKV runs now, and EURO4's next run goes out 'til 20z on Weds I believe. Fingers crossed they show what the vast majority of us want: no or very little eastward correction! WRF 06z looks positive as it keeps Dorset-eastwards fully in the game.

Also gfs 12z has gone much further west for wedneaday night thursday morning!!more in line with early morning ukv output!!!

[Thunder and Lightning]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Also gfs 12z has gone much further west for wedneaday night thursday morning!!more in line with early morning ukv output!!!

Like you just said, GFS and ICON models in a perfect place for most across Southern UK. Really looking to be an exciting day! 

Other models as well looking good... waiting for 12z ARPEGE. It will be exciting to see the AROME tomorrow