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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Some of these runs being churned out are definitely pointing and signalling a June 2012 style outbreak (Warmth and humidity being overlapped by quite a strong jet stream). 

Keep an eye on the outputs this week. Things could get pretty interesting. All on a knife edge as ever. 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

GEM almost gives us a plume this Sun/Mon, but it gets cut off by yet more ridging. 

I can see this being another 2018, where the heat doesn't go out with a bang, except for a lucky few. The Easternmost quarter of the country did have some explosive late July storms that year also but other than the April/May plumes, there was nothing for the central south.

 

I've now moved back to the Isle of Wight, limiting my chase options dramatically, but it's probably for the best given my last two have been wild goose chases for nothing! I'm fully relying on elevated channel storms now!

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

At least you won't have to drive so far Lance, when storm chasing. The IOW could be good for spotting waterspouts.

Rutland water may become a smaller version of lake Maracaibo, but without tarantulas, or ⚡.

 

The lack of imports has shown that we can grow our own severe storms too.

 

 

Edited by Sprites
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Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Weather Preferences: Three fine days and a thunderstorm
  • Location: Leiston

Yeah totally dig the last 5-10 year thing, "warm nose" is almost constantly capping things.

Plumes as said don't cut it, they destabilize over the North Sea because of wonky trajectory with the MUCAPE covering France then remaining offshore in the North Sea stretching over to Denmark.

July 2019 was the last and most classic example, although here we did get a lucky glance, the bulk was 30 miles offshore. This after days of raw record breaking heat, to add insult the storms had tops at flight level in the early evening (love for someone to verify) and it was a painful miss within a year of many misses.

Last year? Well say no more.

I'm still sure at some point somethings got to give so I just enjoy what I can and await the 90s throwback we used to see.

Have a nice evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

May 2017 and counting here. Only distant rumbles of thunder heard since then.

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

May 2017 and counting here. Only distant rumbles of thunder heard since then.

A 4 year storm drought,  must be frustrating after last years activity UK wide.  

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
11 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

A 4 year storm drought,  must be frustrating after last years activity UK wide.  

It's more frustrating the same areas keep getting hit. I'm also fully reliant on french imports rather than homegrown storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

maybe one day in the future, one of us will get a storm like this 

 

Edited by Atmogenic
Just remembered the June 2012 was similar to this one but not as frequent lightning and thunder as the one i posted
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

How is the forecast for today.

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
39 minutes ago, R Alto said:

Looks like some where in Northern France was getting wet...

20210609_162744.jpg

Must have been the cell that can be seen on this screenshot, it must have had some height on it!

I wish something like that would pop up here, sunny weather is nice but storms are better

Screenshot_20210609-171750.png

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
47 minutes ago, R Alto said:

Looks like some where in Northern France was getting wet...

20210609_162744.jpg

Thought I could see the tops of that even from here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

@Paul ShermanI’d say that something changed more than 10 years ago. 
There’s a thread on here somewhere about a decline in thunder days which also highlights what you’ve said.

From an IMBY perspective something has definitely altered! Having lived in the North East Wales/Chester area all my life I’ve also noticed a change.

Before 2004 we always used to get one big storm a year (quite often at the end of May), and then that was it.

Then came along 2004,2005… Absolutely horrible thunderless years… One distant rumble of thunder per year, and that was it! ☹️
Then one morning in September 2006 there was a distant thunderstorm that I could just about here for an hour or so. But it wasn’t until 2007 that the storms properly returned… But something had altered… Instead of our one big storm that would last for several hours, it was a half hour storm (right overhead), and then next day another one! 
 

So ever since 2007 we have now been getting multiple storms per year, but the big storms of yesteryear are now but a distant memory.

As a storm lover I’m certainly not complaining at this new set up… But you’re right… Something has definitely changed… But what?

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

@Paul ShermanI’d say that something changed more than 10 years ago. 
There’s a thread on here somewhere about a decline in thunder days which also highlights what you’ve said.

From an IMBY perspective something has definitely altered! Having lived in the North East Wales/Chester area all my life I’ve also noticed a change.

Before 2004 we always used to get one big storm a year (quite often at the end of May), and then that was it.

Then came along 2004,2005… Absolutely horrible thunderless years… One distant rumble of thunder per year, and that was it! ☹️
Then one morning in September 2006 there was a distant thunderstorm that I could just about here for an hour or so. But it wasn’t until 2007 that the storms properly returned… But something had altered… Instead of our one big storm that would last for several hours, it was a half hour storm (right overhead), and then next day another one! 
 

So ever since 2007 we have now been getting multiple storms per year, but the big storms of yesteryear are now but a distant memory.

As a storm lover I’m certainly not complaining at this new set up… But you’re right… Something has definitely changed… But what?

Interesting you say that 2004 and 05 were thunderless years up your way, because they delivered some corkers out here in the east! June 28th 2005 and Aug 31st 2005 saw some real humdingers on them days. 

I think as Paul said, it’s definitely a capping issue that kills off imports nowadays, and also restricts the south from brewing homegrowns too. Reduced Dew points I believe can lead to this. I really do wonder if the crackdown on cooling towers and a change of industry has played a part in seeing these reduced Dp’s, and with a wind straight off the English Channel, it just suppresses any fuel and relies on elevated convection. That’s one theory I have. Is it any coincidence that the cooling tower filled Trent valley and places such as Doncaster up toward York (laden with cooling towers from Eggborough and Drax) seem to do the best with storms? Plus the long track over warmed land mass to boot. 

Another place that I see more often than not break the cap even under pressures many millibars higher than here at times is Western Germany (Ruhr and North Rhine Westphalia area). What is that area full of? You guessed it, huge coal fired power stations!! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
59 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Interesting you say that 2004 and 05 were thunderless years up your way, because they delivered some corkers out here in the east! June 28th 2005 and Aug 31st 2005 saw some real humdingers on them days. 

 

Oh yes these dates are etched in my memory! The 28th June storms were more impressive here, after the humdingers on the 24th... but the ore storm humidity on 31st August was some the most unpleasant I’ve experienced in this country. Positively steamy!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
On 08/06/2021 at 20:30, Rush2112 said:

A 4 year storm drought,  must be frustrating after last years activity UK wide.  

U.K. wide? I think it was skewed further north, it was a very poor year for SE the French imports were essentially nonexistent as said it doesn’t matter how hot it becomes it doesn’t seem to translate into increased risk of thunderstorms, last August prime example 4 tropical nights I had the breakdown didn’t even wet the ground. Just rubbish. July 2019 last decent storm here and before that May 2018 increasingly getting more spaced out. Living in middle of London I expect much better traditionally heat of city would allow thunderstorms to develop nearly 48 months despite lots of heat and nothing decent awful. A few rumbles and one solitary CG doesn’t do it for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I think you were just unlucky. Last June and to a lesser degree August had significant electrical activity around the south east several times.

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

I think the UK is very slowly heading towards Scandinavia. This will reduce the thunder risk too. 

If you think it's bad now, come back to the UK in fifty million yrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Some convective downpours have developed in the SW, don't think these were forecast, al i heard was patchy drizzle.

image.thumb.png.b22f2d627d310e2c298537b865704cb3.png

Edited by Sparkiee storm
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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
23 hours ago, R Alto said:

Looks like some where in Northern France was getting wet...

20210609_162744.jpg

Cloud tops to 40k feet are visible at over 200 miles if you have a clear line of sight

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
34 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Some convective downpours have developed in the SW, don't think these were forecast, al i heard was patchy drizzle.

image.thumb.png.b22f2d627d310e2c298537b865704cb3.png

Had a lot more sun here than forecast too. Very warm and humid 23.3C

Edited by chapmanslade
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Been a while since I last posted on here, judging by current weather models I'm guessing it looks to be just a gradual break down rather than anything thundery or worth keeping an eye on?

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Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Weather Preferences: Three fine days and a thunderstorm
  • Location: Leiston
27 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Been a while since I last posted on here, judging by current weather models I'm guessing it looks to be just a gradual break down rather than anything thundery or worth keeping an eye on?

More than probably, as it stands a dead cold front moving down from the NW after days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity.

Massive SB and MU cape over northern France nothing in the south UK, if it does pop it will be northern UK just because.

Not a forecast and hopefully won't happen like this, but I set my expectations low these days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

No real plumes this year so far and none even in fantasy land. 
 

My La Niña theory is so far holding firm

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