Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[Chris.R]

Feeling good about today although just don’t want to be stuck under a decaying cell again for ages that is so boring. Never seem to be stuck under a developing cell.

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Feeling good about today although just don’t want to be stuck under a decaying cell again for ages that is so boring. Never seem to be stuck under a developing cell.

I don't really have the best of feelings about today. While yes, the radars do look like there will be some cells popping up, most of these won't be thunderstorms. We had a cell develop right over us yesterday and not even one rumble of thunder came over it. I'm going to wait until we warm up a bit to get excited. 

But I do hope you get something today.

[Chris.R]

12.5°C and rising fast with good insollation.

[BrickFielder]

 Storm forecasts need to  be realistic and when temperatures are below 20C then updraft strengths are likely to be limited. Equally when the air moisture is fairly consistent upwards then you are likely to get messy convection without good focus for storms.
 What we do have is a slow moving surface type low under an upper trough. This typically would give us slow moving heavy rainfall pulse type storms. With surface instability somewhat weak and mid level lapse rates being a strong driver of instability through the zero degree isotherm then hail should be part of the mix along with lightning (cold cloud tops today playing a part).
 There are some features which are tricky to assess today which could affect storm severity in a few areas. The First is where low level wind convergence will take place and will it be discreet. The second is that as the surface low crosses the South just north of the low you have an area where low level and surface winds are weak but in different directions (the low is not vertically stacked upwards). Strong directional sheer especially near the surface can sometimes make up for very poor speed wind shear. The third feature which is not on every model is suggestions of slight jet like conditions at cloud base level in some discreet places (especially along the south coast).

I think I would be keeping an eye on East Wales and Oxfordshire for a start and then maybe perhaps some Eastern coasts where costal on shore winds will get thrown into the mix. Probably easier to watch the radar now and the big concern is likely to be localized flash flooding.

[Arnie Pie]

Cells beginning to bubble up nicely....Not expecting anything soon... but later on might be interesting around these parts....keeping an eye out for any spin ups

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

I don't really have the best of feelings about today. While yes, the radars do look like there will be some cells popping up, most of these won't be thunderstorms. We had a cell develop right over us yesterday and not even one rumble of thunder came over it. I'm going to wait until we warm up a bit to get excited. 

But I do hope you get something today.

ive only seen couple of glimmers from sun as well ,couple of heavy showers but no storm,no sun either ,no good heating,can see slithers of blue sky but thats it .

 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, TN9 said:

ive only seen couple of glimmers from sun as well ,couple of heavy showers but no storm,no sun either ,no good heating,can see slithers of blue sky but thats it .

 

Yep, exactly what I'm seeing here apart from the heavy showers. It's just been an overcast day with no sunshine or rain at all. Not holding much hope for any thunder at all.

[Chris.R]

Very good insolation over last few hours about 80% sun and now cumulus building. 14.6°C.

[Frosty hollows]

Lovely morning here with heavy showers to the south and west. Could bode well for later...

[AMeltedFlake]

Majority of cells near me (East Wales), appear to just be collapsing all the time

[Chris.R]

15.1°C still good insolation

[ancientsolar]

Seeing that convergence (if that's what it is,) in SE Wales now, ~ one of the showers is heading directly north , others heading North East  

[Azazel]

Absolutely featureless rancid slate grey skies with pouring rain here basically all morning.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Absolutely featureless rancid slate grey skies with pouring rain here basically all morning.

Same here, atmospheric profile too saturated really and any CAPE being gobbled up as soon as there’s a gap in the clouds. 

[Frosty hollows]

16.7c here and plenty of decent insolation.  Bands of showers heading from SW are literally disappearing as they near us. Not a drop of rain so far for a change

[Chris.R]

 If  anything not enough moisture here lol. Humidity low and sun cracking the flags  for hours now and only the occasional cumulus passing by. 15.5°C

[minus10]

Convection stalled...

 

 

Hopefully more sreading up from the sw according to radar...

[Chris.R]

First strikes now in Derbyshire. Radio confirms. Died now.

[Chris.R]

Still very sunny here 16.3°C

[Guest]

A rumble of thunder from a shower to the north. No precipitation here as the shower developed overhead and cleared north before precipitating. Looks black that way though!

[Chris.R]

Developing shower about to come over.

[Liam Burge]

Just saw my first ever funnel. Dissipated about 20 seconds after I took the image.

[Chris.R]

Significant outflow cold pool around this cell has dropped the temp by 1°C as it comes over.

[Eye to the sky]

A few rumbles heard just north of Derby.Nothing spectacular by any means but better than nothing at all.Just cool and grey now with a strong breeze picking up.

[IanR]

some vigorous cumulus cauliflower heads lit up brilliant white by the sun ,  blue sky around too,   not expecting much here,  nothing much ever does ,  I expect any heavy/thundery showers that do develop will go up a good few miles west of here and miss , or to the east and pass up that way ,   seems the norm