Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[Mapantz]

The other thing worth mentioning; Just because the UKV shows precip further West, doesn't mean lightning potential will be. I still think the best of that will be further East.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Estofex out now

Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

The phrases "ESTOFEX and MCS heading for SE UK" is music to my ears.

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The phrases "ESTOFEX and MCS heading for SE UK" is music to my ears.

Have to say, it's the first time I've heard "MCS heading for SE UK" in a good year or two!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The other thing worth mentioning; Just because the UKV shows precip further West, doesn't mean lightning potential will be. I still think the best of that will be further East.

Yeah this is an important point. 

The focus of lightning activity will be along the eastern side of the band where plume engagement is highest, it's possible the western flank will see very limited/no lightning at all. 

[Daniel*]

29 minutes ago, Harry said:

Wow! I don’t have access to UKV but that looks like a significant westward shift - excellent! 

How is it excellent for us in SE? Too west no thanks! 

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

How is it excellent for us in SE? Too west no thanks! 

I’d far rather be to the slightly to the east in these circumstances than too far west. Plus the models are showing outbreaks across the SE which should be under higher instability and therefore higher risk of lightning

Edited June 15, 2021 by Harry

[Iceman2606]

Thunderstorms are likely to move up from France through Wed night into Thu. The main areas of interest are the SE/EA but some models show storms further west especially on UKV. Significant uncertainty on the track of these storms so this will most definitely be a nowcast. All eyes on skies & radars!⛈⛈

[biddie]

All a bit  peculiar  hot but much fresher than yesterday in herts

[Paul Sherman]

Looking at the 18z Models I would imagine the risk area might be further west than what is showing from this mornings suites. 

ICON is From the South Coast from West Sussex to Hampshire then right through the Midlands exiting the North Sea around the Humber

UKV has it from the same starting point as above then pivoting North West through the Midlands and NW England

Arome is also further west.

Arpege also through the Midlands from the South Coast.

In  fact areas further east on these 18z Suites could miss out completely, might even make it to 34 months with no Night time Lightning

More chances Into Friday Morning and again into Sunday morning on some of the Models.

Will be interesting to see the 00z Suites and Ensembles but sweet spot at this time looks to be Isle of Wight to Brighton landfall moving through the London area along to Bristol and then following the M1 northwards.

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Looking at the 18z Models I would imagine the risk area might be further west than what is showing from this mornings suites. 

ICON is From the South Coast from West Sussex to Hampshire then right through the Midlands exiting the North Sea around the Humber

UKV has it from the same starting point as above then pivoting North West through the Midlands and NW England

Arome is also further west.

Arpege also through the Midlands from the South Coast.

In  fact areas further east on these 18z Suites could miss out completely, might even make it to 34 months with no Night time Lightning

More chances Into Friday Morning and again into Sunday morning on some of the Models.

Will be interesting to see the 00z Suites and Ensembles but sweet spot at this time looks to be Isle of Wight to Brighton landfall moving through the London area along to Bristol and then following the M1 northwards.

That rather grounding post should make sleep come a little easier tonight...

[sheikhy]

Gfs 18z still having none of it yet??!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

It's all knife edge stuff where we get the storms,...NOWCAST and RADAR watching from tomorrow is the key and nothing else

always has and always will be.

[Harry]

MetO have extended thunderstorm warnings to Saturday now

[Bolt From Blue]

So it would seem the differences between how widespread and how much electrical activity are tied to how much energy can reach us (with everything else in place), which in turn is dependant on surface based storms over France in the afternoon modifying things too much.

This happened back in June 2019 when supercells over France actually sat there hoovering up the energy and ruined what was supposed to be a good event.

With all the shuffling East to West to contend with we could probably do with LESS surface based stuff happening over France to allow the energy to make it unmodified.

Then we have Friday and Sat to iron out.

Very exciting days ahead for most, could this break the deadlock for those that have missed out for years? 

I'd say best chance in a while.

[Paul Sherman]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

MetO have extended thunderstorm warnings to Saturday now

Expect that to be extended further until 09am Sunday from the looks of some of the Models Harry.

A very Thundery 4 day spell coming up for some lucky people

Eyes down for the 00z 

[UKSupercell]

First time back posting on here since the snow many months ago! 

Say, East Hants doesn't look a bad place to be at all for tomorrow....but I ain't counting my chickens just yet. 

We all know that a Kent Clipper is always a reasonable possibility, despite these apparent westward shifts......

Excited nonetheless! 

[Harry]

12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Expect that to be extended further until 09am Sunday from the looks of some of the Models Harry.

A very Thundery 4 day spell coming up for some lucky people

Eyes down for the 00z 

Very much hope so @Paul Sherman!!

Am just hoping we do not suffer days of frontal mess and all the thunder activity stays over the North Sea/Benelux.

 

[skyblusam]

I'm on the top of Portland Dorset. And have a clear view of the channel from my sofa looking south/south east. If we get anything who knows but I'll definitely be chilling with the curtains open. The ironic thing is my home town Coventry has had loads of storms in the 2 years I've been here. I've had 2 or 3. And my mate always rubs it in by sending me video's lol. Good luck all it could be a bumpy ride

[Zak M]

Looks like a shift west there on the latest AROME!

Edited June 15, 2021 by Zak M

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks like a shift west there from the latest AROME!

An impressive trend back west tonight leading to more of us potentially seeing some action! Interested to see what EURO4 and UKV 21z produce.

[Southern Storm]

Tomorrow will be the summer equivalent of,  where will it snow tomorrow, and just like snow, storms can be equally tricky to pin down, it's just going to be a case of keeping up to date with the latest runs, and hoping for the best.

And if you are really desperate, get in the car and place yourself in in a location that allows you to try and intercept anything that appears on the radar, while also checking in on this fabulous community

I'm going all in for tomorrow, and will travel further afield if necessary, as I am going up north for the weekend, so will likely miss out on the imports.

Camera gear ready and all set for tomorrow,  we just need mother nature to do her thing I will also be wearing my lucky underpants just in case

[Ben Sainsbury]

EURO4 18z not interested haha...

[Mesoscale]

Specific UK forecasts I never trust, I like an overal picture of European warnings and forecasts as you really cannot pin point locations until the last minute, general warning areas are ones to look out for. 

[Harry]

Disappointing swing in the overnight modelling (after yesterday evening was looking promising for many).

EURO4, AROME and WRF NMM 5KM all showing what to my eye is a Kent clipper (assuming all lightning stays on the eastern edge). 

[sheikhy]

Lets see what happens today!!cant believe how badly the models have been with this only 24 hours away from the event as well!!poor if you ask me!!i know some of us might say they are only computer models but to be all over the place at just 24 hours out should not happen in this modern day!!only good thing in my opinion is it still makes weather viewing for us in this forum exciting right down to the event sometimes lol!!