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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
46 minutes ago, Freeze said:

I wait all year for events like this!

Yes, me too! Even when you've seen the goodies on offer state-side in the Midwest, there's something unique/special about our plumes. You can't beat the build-up either, with the amazing AC Cas-filled skies we get in the preceding hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

The buzz and hype is here, and we are close to the exciting time. Fingers crossed it ends up being better than predicted and more of us can see some of the fire works, including those slightly further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Love events like this been unlucky in the last few years not on the extreme Coast but still got a decent few, seen a fantastic spider lightning arc across the sky arching in all direction from the perfect distance in 2017 or 2018 wish I had had my phone with me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire

Trying not to get excited by the hype, but if this does come off I'll be heading to the coast to watch ?️

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

Alot of rain making it impossible to take photos, NE surfuce wind dragging in the north sea cloaking device (fractus) hiding the lightning? This is how it often pans out with an MCS for my area. Unless the MCS tracks further west of here and then it's usually better, with less clag and more strikes visible. The further southeast your location the better I think with this one. If you can get a view of the leading cells approaching, before the rain arrives would be good.

Beggers can't be choosers though lol

 

Edited by Sprites
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

 

Still lots of uncertainty as ever in these setups, we wont really know until we see storms initiating across France tomorrow and we can begin tracking them. They should become increasingly elevated in nature as they move northwards, negating a lot of impacts from the cooler channel as they cross. 

If I was chasing, I'd position myself on the coast somewhere between Eastbourne and Dover.

As a Bexhill dweller, I like your thinking! 

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Cold. Thuderstorms
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
39 minutes ago, Purplepixii said:

Trying not to get excited by the hype, but if this does come off I'll be heading to the coast to watch ?️


Same here. Camera will be ready just in case. 

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

I hope this forecast works, and it's not another dud (no disrespect to the forecasters - the weather does what it does).  My local Reigate high-pressure zone usually means storms actively avoid me. 

Anyhow, I saw this interesting article today, that I thought is quite pertinent:  

3500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Warm air from Spain usually means thundery days will follow – but changing weather patterns are making this less likely

 

Edited by StormLoser
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

What looked like a more widespread area of storms for england a couple of days ago is now looking like just east anglia and london affair!!and with the time still left we could see a further push east where only eastern east anglia and east of london get the storms only!!shame but we still got july and august i guess!!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Good day gang ,hope most of you get to see some action .Still a good 24hrs till we can be sure how far west the threat of decent storms will be .If i was a betting man ,id say here on west mendip we should have a good lightning display,and if the dice falls right some good C/ground lightning, but i do feel that the threat of the Beefy stuff is going to be further east ,time will tell , cheers gang, sausage baps and STEROIDS, sorry i mean STELLAS all round .

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Looks like the 06z UKV gives another round of thunderstorms to more western areas on Thursday morning.

image.thumb.png.1c35db1cd9650e8e533578055a073ae0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Nope, slight eastward correction this morning, in fact a bit more than a slight eastward correction GFS (which is performing well) now has it completely dry overnight Wednesday.....lets at least get the disappointment over with early now.

What do we have to do to get a storm, still time for things to change, so I haven't given up on some happening around our area.

Also I've just had a look at Nick's forecast and it does give us more opportunities over the weekend! Only problem is, I'm traveling up to the northwest on Friday just my luck 

Oh well, good luck and I hope you and many others manage to capture something over the next few days!

Edited by Southern Storm
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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
51 minutes ago, Smokeone said:


Same here. Camera will be ready just in case. 

Hah you're in Fareham too? Small world! I plan on watching from Hayling beach if this comes off 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Won't be going anywhere on Wednesday wish I could ask my dad to chase, have to hope I get the Storms, usually do see quite far from where I am, time to put new batteries in the camera, good pictures possible if this comes off, with the wind gusts reminds me of storms that have had good starts in terms of cloud structure so could try and get a picture of lightning in the distance with the front of the clouds. 

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

For where I am a trip up to the hills (somewhere like Combs Moss, Shining Tor, Holme Moss) is as close to seeing any potential night-time lightning other than going on a 300-mile round trip, Thursday's potential storms more central/westwards has my interests in terms of a morning chase but it's still uncertain for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Latest EURO4 run just looks like pure insanity for Thursday afternoon.

image.thumb.png.0e87e86925d7bb34b17a68c46c1153e9.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Latest EURO4 run just looks like pure insanity for Thursday afternoon.

image.thumb.png.0e87e86925d7bb34b17a68c46c1153e9.png

Pretty much right over Leicester, that orange blob. Typical as I have to head out around that time too ☔

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

GFS showing  little to no convective ingredients for here Wednesday night in to Thursday. Disappointment already dealt with, so no worries on that front.

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43 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

GFS showing  little to no convective ingredients for here Wednesday night in to Thursday. Disappointment already dealt with, so no worries on that front.

GFS 06z pretty much fails everywhere Wednesday night and unsurprisingly turns into a classic Kent clipper.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Latest EURO4 run just looks like pure insanity for Thursday afternoon.

image.thumb.png.0e87e86925d7bb34b17a68c46c1153e9.png

Euro4 usually has a pretty good success rate with storms. It isn’t on its own either. icon and Hirlam are both in agreement in being bullish on a MCS type system. 

All eyes will be on tomorrow afternoon down in N/NW France. The (likely) initiation will tell us where is likely to be in the firing line. Hoping it will be at least West of the Cherbourg peninsula, given the steering direction will be NNE at best. 

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