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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.

      image.thumb.png.ccfafa7d88f1a1515bc152fcc43c1b10.png   

 

It's usually me sending it down your way, nice change to reciprocate!

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3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Here's the ICON..

707872217_Screenshot2021-06-14180949.thumb.png.9aa98206ceb83138ede6bda250b63bf6.png

Lightning tends to inhabit the Eastern flank of an MCS.

Yup, as usual will end up being a nowcast situation from about 18Z on Wednesday evening waiting for the first cells to start firing and hoping they are about 50-100miles west of Cherbourg. Already I suspect here in east Dorset we are on the very western edge of the possibilities so almost a dead cert to be frustrating watching everything go east.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

*It's official!*

Extended

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

outlook! 

Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

*It's official!*

Extended convectiveweather.co.uk outlook!

i did see the strong gusts, better make sure my safetyboat fleet is secured tomorrow night, plus run the committee boat (diesel) up to charge the engine and house batteries up as well

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Not liking current output for my backyard. I simply detest the direction of flow!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Jun 2021

ISSUED 20:39 UTC Mon 14 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough over the North Atlantic will extend southwards through Tuesday and Wednesday, merging with an upper low to the west of Iberia. The net result is the mid/upper-level flow will become increasingly backed with time, allowing advection of a high Theta-W plume over western Europe into SE Britain by Wednesday evening. Forecast profiles reveal a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) with substantial moistening of the mid/upper levels as Wednesday evening progresses. A minor shortwave embedded within the SW-ly flow aloft is likely to coincide with isentropic upglide to aid forced ascent and generate deep convection rooted above the boundary layer.

The most likely scenario is elevated thunderstorms will erupt along the leading edge of the EML during Wednesday evening and night, initially across the English Channel / NW France, tracking northeastwards across CS / SE England and then across the Home Counties and East Anglia during the remainder of the night. It is possible that thunderstorms could develop as far west as Dorset initially, but with time lightning activity may become progressively confined to areas further to the east (e.g. SE England and coastal East Anglia, as an extreme example) along the leading edge of the main continental Theta-W plume, as the atmosphere becomes worked over and modified by convection. The main hazards will be lightning and locally large rainfall totals giving the risk of surface water flooding. However, inverted-V profiles suggest the potential for strong gusts of wind, potentially as high as 40-50mph locally from the strongest cells.

This forecast will likely be updated with additional information over the coming days, including the inclusion of higher threat levels, as confidence in the forecast evolution increases.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-06-16

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Jun 2021

ISSUED 20:39 UTC Mon 14 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough over the North Atlantic will extend southwards through Tuesday and Wednesday, merging with an upper low to the west of Iberia. The net result is the mid/upper-level flow will become increasingly backed with time, allowing advection of a high Theta-W plume over western Europe into SE Britain by Wednesday evening. Forecast profiles reveal a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) with substantial moistening of the mid/upper levels as Wednesday evening progresses. A minor shortwave embedded within the SW-ly flow aloft is likely to coincide with isentropic upglide to aid forced ascent and generate deep convection rooted above the boundary layer.

The most likely scenario is elevated thunderstorms will erupt along the leading edge of the EML during Wednesday evening and night, initially across the English Channel / NW France, tracking northeastwards across CS / SE England and then across the Home Counties and East Anglia during the remainder of the night. It is possible that thunderstorms could develop as far west as Dorset initially, but with time lightning activity may become progressively confined to areas further to the east (e.g. SE England and coastal East Anglia, as an extreme example) along the leading edge of the main continental Theta-W plume, as the atmosphere becomes worked over and modified by convection. The main hazards will be lightning and locally large rainfall totals giving the risk of surface water flooding. However, inverted-V profiles suggest the potential for strong gusts of wind, potentially as high as 40-50mph locally from the strongest cells.

This forecast will likely be updated with additional information over the coming days, including the inclusion of higher threat levels, as confidence in the forecast evolution increases.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-06-16

Definitely think a moderate would be possible for D1! Hopefully if there is I am in it

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Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

Horlicks that's me out then but maybe some surprises 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Already calling it  a bust for Worthing

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
41 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yup, as usual will end up being a nowcast situation from about 18Z on Wednesday evening waiting for the first cells to start firing and hoping they are about 50-100miles west of Cherbourg. Already I suspect here in east Dorset we are on the very western edge of the possibilities so almost a dead cert to be frustrating watching everything go east.

Hoping we get some westward corrections in the next few runs, but we are getting down to it now, so it needs to happen soon.

All my camera gear is ready to go, the question is, how far am I prepared to travel given that I have to work on Thursday, hopefully not too far, or at all if we get lucky ??

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

UKV starting to firm up now, the last few runs have been similar.

 

nmmukprate (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

As always as the event approaches models start correcting eastwards. Whilst a broader area of rain/embedded lightning is likely for areas further west, the main excitement looks to be focused towards the SE/eastern parts of East Anglia.

SE.thumb.png.099c1d1dc6d974fae0243462ac4d52d2.png

 

East of green line = Heavy rainfall, possibly leading to localised flooding, gusty winds & some sporadic lightning, uncertain how electrified this part of the system will be. 

 

East of orange line = Highest threat of thunderstorms, possibly locally severe along the extreme S coast due to higher shear here, though overall shear over the UK isn't that impressive. Frequent lightning possible here, though PWAT values approaching 40mm makes the greatest concern rainfall & flooding. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
35 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

As always as the event approaches models start correcting eastwards. Whilst a broader area of rain/embedded lightning is likely for areas further west, the main excitement looks to be focused towards the SE/eastern parts of East Anglia.

SE.thumb.png.099c1d1dc6d974fae0243462ac4d52d2.png

 

East of green line = Heavy rainfall, possibly leading to localised flooding, gusty winds & some sporadic lightning, uncertain how electrified this part of the system will be. 

 

East of orange line = Highest threat of thunderstorms, possibly locally severe along the extreme S coast due to higher shear here, though overall shear over the UK isn't that impressive. Frequent lightning possible here, though PWAT values approaching 40mm makes the greatest concern rainfall & flooding. 

Hopefully Lincoln is in for a good chance on Wednesday night, would be great to approaching storms at night

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

A Kent Clipper in the making.  

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Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

Looks like a major shift eastwards in charts over night, clipping Kent and into South East anglia. Fingers and toes crossed for some changed in the coming hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Shifted again east overnight.  Looks like I'll topping my ponds later this week then.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.7cc5760334c508fb04b254778737593c.pngimage.thumb.png.d87b25003a62bdb37bc43ebe328dd097.png 

AROME finally in range this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
5 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

image.thumb.png.7cc5760334c508fb04b254778737593c.pngimage.thumb.png.d87b25003a62bdb37bc43ebe328dd097.png 

AROME finally in range this morning.

Looks like a pretty big swathe of England from IOW eastwards could join in if this is correct.

As always though, it’ll come down to nowcasting at the time. But isn’t that part of the fun?

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
7 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Looks like a pretty big swathe of England from IOW eastwards could join in if this is correct.

As always though, it’ll come down to nowcasting at the time. But isn’t that part of the fun?

The many nights I've spent staying up watching storms die across the channel. 

Always very rewarding when you do get one.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

From 1 am onwards I think is the main parameter, frequent lightning could be quite possible and this time the models have only slightly downgraded the severity rather than significantly downgraded as on previous rjns a slight nudge East would be nice for me but for those on the edge wouldn't be great, so Im hoping the severity is stronger than expected and like others have sai, it's nowcasting.

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9 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Hoping we get some westward corrections in the next few runs, but we are getting down to it now, so it needs to happen soon.

All my camera gear is ready to go, the question is, how far am I prepared to travel given that I have to work on Thursday, hopefully not too far, or at all if we get lucky ??

Nope, slight eastward correction this morning, in fact a bit more than a slight eastward correction GFS (which is performing well) now has it completely dry overnight Wednesday.....lets at least get the disappointment over with early now.

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Another distant miss here again, maybe some light rain, should  update the storm warnings now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Appears to me that the hi-res models are the models that have the storms situated further west than compared to the likes of the GFS/ECM etc. UKV still has a fairly significant area at risk of thunderstorms overnight Wed/Thurs. At this range we would expect the likes of the UKV/NMM/EURO4/AROME to resolve the initiation and development of thunderstorms the best.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

This is the latest Euro4. I’ve uploaded the panel view so you can see the projected evolution. 

 

DA293BC0-ECA0-45F4-8526-3C57C02314F1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Appears to me that the hi-res models are the models that have the storms situated further west than compared to the likes of the GFS/ECM etc. UKV still has a fairly significant area at risk of thunderstorms overnight Wed/Thurs. At this range we would expect the likes of the UKV/NMM/EURO4/AROME to resolve the initiation and development of thunderstorms the best.

I hope you're right Ben, otherwise it's game over for me!

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