Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[Petorious]

Would like to see movement central to a line from Weymouth to Peterborough, this would wake me up in the night and keep me happy driving and working around Peterborough in my truck lmao. Guess we can all live in hope.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Like you just said, GFS and ICON models in a perfect place for most across Southern UK. Really looking to be an exciting day! 

Other models as well looking good... waiting for 12z ARPEGE. It will be exciting to see the AROME tomorrow

I really didnt expect to see that much of a shove west on latest gfs!!!especially with all the eastward shift in the last 3 runs!!!

[DIS1970]

Nothing to look at here again, as per.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

NMM 12z for that matter, looking promising.

[Harry]

Precipitation modelling looks good but I’m not seeing huge amounts of instability - some, but not much. This will be critical for sparks, so I’m hoping the models show a little more of this over the next 24 hours (as well as keeping the track broadly consistent).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Nothing to look at here again, as per.

 

nothing for NW midlands, just an absolute washout, timed for the day, temps at 13 degrees,

[camturbo]

Looks like I might miss out as well needs to come west a bit more,from a selfish point of view. If this does come off we need to see some decent pics

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, camturbo said:

Looks like I might miss out as well needs to come west a bit more,from a selfish point of view. If this does come off we need to see some decent pics

Camera batteries are fully charged  Just need the storms to actually come to the IOW/nearby English Channel...

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

NMM 12z for that matter, looking promising.

Delish!!!!!lets hope there some thunder and lightning with that though!!!

[camturbo]

11 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Camera batteries are fully charged  Just need the storms to actually come to the IOW/nearby English Channel...

Cheers chap,make sure they are good ones,about time the IOW peoples had something. When uv finished with the storms push em this way

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Delish!!!!!lets hope there some thunder and lightning with that though!!!

to me away from the SE, it just seems like standard cold rain, temps struggling too

[Ben Sainsbury]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Delish!!!!!lets hope there some thunder and lightning with that though!!!

Would imagine so based upon the NMM MUCAPE and DLS. NMM definitely keen on an MCS, feeding off the high theta-w/high instability off the continent.

[viking_smb]

@staplehurst What are your thoughts for weds night currently mate?

[Mapantz]

Here's the ICON..

Lightning tends to inhabit the Eastern flank of an MCS.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

52 minutes ago, Harry said:

Precipitation modelling looks good but I’m not seeing huge amounts of instability - some, but not much. This will be critical for sparks, so I’m hoping the models show a little more of this over the next 24 hours (as well as keeping the track broadly consistent).

The CAPE may not matter too much. Directional shear, Dew points, lapse rates, vertical shear and many more ingredients tend to play key parts in these setups. Early hours of 21 August 2020 off the East Anglia coast was incredible, yet only fed off Mid level CAPE directly over the N Sea. I think the rest of the ingredients came together perfectly, I.e wind shear, lapse rates, and a trough for the triggering mechanism etc. 

Edited June 14, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Chris Lea-Alex]

14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The CAPE may not matter too much. Directional shear, Dew points, lapse rates, vertical shear and many more ingredients tend to play key parts in these setups. Early hours of 21 August 2020 off the East Anglia coast was incredible, yet only fed off Mid level CAPE directly over the N Sea. I think the rest of the ingredients came together perfectly, I.e wind shear, lapse rates, and a trough for the triggering mechanism etc. 

I really wish Doggerland could be drained.  I would move there tomorrow!

[ChannelThunder]

A poor EURO4 it has to be said, with a Kent Clipper incoming; but it does only go to 20z Weds currently. Something of an eastward shift on the WRF too.

[Zak M]

UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.

         

 

Edited June 14, 2021 by Zak M

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.

         

 

Reckon this'll be a classic Plume maybe a tad more western which could be quite good followed by round 2.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.

         

 

Cheers @Zak M,i might have to do a chase Fri when i finish work at 2pm,before that i will be in snoozy land as i am up at 5am every morning this week.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tomorrow mornings runs will start to give a better indication on where is likely to be hit. I’d expect during the evening of tomorrow is when we may start to see the first preliminary warnings issued, and hopefully some in depth forecasts and opinions by @staplehurst@Nick F @BrickFielder @Paul Sherman Etc. Always greatly appreciated. I may chase if necessary, but given that most runs have me getting a mullering currently, there may be no need. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Driving to Norfolk on Friday evening, and with the latest UKV run, it would be incredible to drive along with what could be some juicy thunderstorms!

[Paul]

Just for those who maybe don't follow the model thread, we have a selection of charts from every run of the UKV available here:

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Extra subscribers can follow the same link to access the full range  

[Eagle Eye]

16 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Driving to Norfolk on Friday evening, and with the latest UKV run, it would be incredible to drive along with what could be some juicy thunderstorms!

My areas of Interest, I think anyway. 

[BrickFielder]

At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a nighttime show and plenty of rain.

So Spanish plume scenarios generally mean elevated storms, lightning but not always heavy rain. French imports generally loose strength when crossing the channel. These plumes involve very hot moist air from Spain being lifted up as they cross the northern mountains of Spain. Cooling as air moves north or due to night time temperatures will cause the moisture to create clouds.

There are a couple of things that suggest that this may not conform exactly to a standard plume event. GDAS blocking forecasts suggest that the tendency for high pressure over the UK will move towards north east Scandinavia. This might mean models are over doing the modelling of high pressure strength towards the Azores and the plume might head towards the UK. 

Then we have a heat low over northern Spain driving some Jetstreaks from the Spanish cut of low northwards as the cut off low engages again with the Jetstream.

It is slightly unusual for the low level air underneath the plume to be coming from the north Atlantic when it begins to destabilize. This air can be more moist than continental air and means that surface storms are more likely to develop over France. This can also mean that an MCS will develop over the Bay of Biscay. Depending on the timing the leading edge of such an MCS can give rise to some localized conditions which could lead to a weak tornado. Typically this type of MCS gives very heavy rain with not much lightning.

Unfortunately we are too far out and the models are going to chop and change a lot so guessing the scenario we get is very tricky at this range. There are also more chances of storms for the following days as well and judging by the Jetstream forecast these might be equally worth monitoring.