Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 13 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 14 Jun 2021

ISSUED 07:10 UTC Sun 13 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the upper ridge axis gradually shifts eastwards to Scandinavia on Sunday, pulses of weak mid-level instability will be present across Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland ahead of the surface cold front. While lightning is deemed very unlikely in most places, an odd lightning strike cannot be ruled out with pockets of showery rain sliding eastwards across the area - most likely over the North Sea on Sunday night. Low-topped showers will then follow the cold front into NW Scotland overnight.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-06-13

 

I wonder if Dan's planning to get an early Outlook for Wednesday out. Looking likely to see CW's first (I believe) MDT of the year I would say.

[Mapantz]

Blanket warning issued:

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone

A lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then… But the U.K. Meto have just issued a three day thunderstorm warning! ?⛈

[Dangerous55019]

36 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Blanket warning issued:

Morning @Mapantz

You beat me too it. Your post popped up just after I hit send.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Dangerous55019

[Chris Lea-Alex]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

I wonder if Dan's planning to get an early Outlook for Wednesday out. Looking likely to see CW's first (I believe) MDT of the year I would say.

Noo, I don't want him to jinx it lol. MDT will equate to moderate dynamic rain

[ChannelThunder]

From Convective Weather's facebook page:

- WEEK AHEAD -

Naturally there's a lot of interest in the Wednesday to Friday period with the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of the UK. There are still several pieces of the jigsaw that are yet to be fully resolved this far out, and much of this will depend on the phasing of upper-level disturbances with a warm, moist plume that will likely advect from Iberia/France towards the UK - including exactly how unstable the atmosphere will actually be (some concerns exist here).

Therefore, it is likely the forecast detail will chop and change between now and midweek.

Currently, the main period of interest is Wednesday night - what happens later in the week will depend significantly on how things evolve on Wednesday night and beyond. For example, overnight thunderstorms that linger well into the morning hours can reduce the potential for further storms later in the day etc.

So, the most likely scenario is clusters of elevated thunderstorms on Wednesday evening/night, migrating northeastwards. While there may be some heavy rain in various parts of England and Wales during this time frame, the greatest risk of lightning appears to be roughly east of a line from east Dorset to Lincolnshire - but even here not all areas will necessarily see thunderstorms. We also acknowledge that climatology sometimes sees these risk areas shift gradually eastwards as you get closer to the event, as the phasing of upper-level disturbances becomes better resolved.

If the general forecast evolution remains reasonably consistent, we may issue a Day 3 outlook on Monday...

 

https://www.facebook.com/ConvectiveWeather/

 

[Robbie Garrett]

 

[Eagle Eye]

We all know that windy.com is the most reliable so... 

 

[AWD]

8 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

We all know that windy.com is the most reliable so... 

 

East of the IOW, Oxford etc?!

Yup, based on previous experiences with how these things evolve & countdown, that sounds about right!

[Frosty hollows]

4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Blanket warning issued:

Think a blanket is the last thing any of us need this week

[Ben Sainsbury]

ICON, GFS and NMM 12z runs all still look very promising for Central parts of England.

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON, GFS and NMM 12z runs all still look very promising for Central parts of England.

More in line with ukmo warnings!!

[Mapantz]

Not liking the trend East, as AWD mentioned. It becomes more SW to NE aligned, perfect for those in the SE and East Anglia.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Personally haven't seen an trend eastwards as of yet, though I do know this is a common theme with imported storms. UKV 15z is a slight shift eastwards compared to its 03z run, however it does send another round of thunderstorms NW/N on Thursday night which look more widespread. ECM 12z consistent with the elevated storms/MCS across London area. GFS/ICON/ARPEGE/NMM/UKMO all still look good for central areas.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[Thunder and Lightning]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Personally haven't seen an trend eastwards as of yet, though I do know this is a common theme with imported storms. UKV 15z is a slight shift eastwards compared to its 03z run, however it does send another round of thunderstorms NW/N on Thursday night which look more widespread. ECM 12z consistent with the elevated storms/MCS across London area. GFS/ICON/ARPEGE/NMM/UKMO all still look good for central areas.

The biggest change in the 15z UKV is a weaker, further east and earlier shortwave, along with what seems to be less potent of the main trough out to the West of the UK, from what I can see on the 500mb chart, compared to other models (and previous runs). My worries are these differences becoming more widespread across the models tomorrow morning.  

My other worry is that I might be in exams for the best of the storms 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

The biggest change in the 15z UKV is a weaker, further east and earlier shortwave, along with what seems to be less potent of the main trough out to the West of the UK, from what I can see on the 500mb chart, compared to other models (and previous runs). My worries are these differences becoming more widespread across the models tomorrow morning.  

My other worry is that I might be in exams for the best of the storms 

like i said earlier, it will get corrected east closer to the time.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, viking_smb said:

like i said earlier, it will get corrected east closer to the time.

Why does this always have to happen though... 

[viking_smb]

Just now, Thunder and Lightning said:

Why does this always have to happen though... 

dont ask me, ask mother nature lol, 

Serious note, it is where the weather patterns lie, I can guarantee it that closer to the time it will go east 

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

dont ask me, ask mother nature lol, 

Serious note, it is where the weather patterns lie, I can guarantee it that closer to the time it will go east 

Yeah it just happens time and time again. 

The only time I can remember it not happening was 23rd July 2019... and I believe that MCS was formed from homegrown storms growing upscale anyway though I can't remember exactly.

[Sentinel]

Looking at the models it's a case of go east.

Having said that, lovely weather down here in sunny Southend but we could do with some big waves to chase away those pesky jellyfish that have stopped me swimming for a good ten days now. Jelly fish, first World problems!

[Ben Sainsbury]

14 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Yeah it just happens time and time again. 

The only time I can remember it not happening was 23rd July 2019... and I believe that MCS was formed from homegrown storms growing upscale anyway though I can't remember exactly.

For this case, the thunderstorms/MCS actually developed further east compared to the UKV/UKMO model runs at that time, I can't quite remember if the model runs trended eastwards leading up to the time. I only know this because this was the only elevated convection case study I focused on in my dissertation haha.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[viking_smb]

8 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

Looking at the models it's a case of go east.

Having said that, lovely weather down here in sunny Southend but we could do with some big waves to chase away those pesky jellyfish that have stopped me swimming for a good ten days now. Jelly fish, first World problems!

jellyfish are a nuisance mate, you tend to get lions mane, compass, cynaea llamarckii (blue jelly) and barrel jellyfish (which are harmless) off southend, 

Compass, Lions mane and blue jelly stings though, 

Around us when im in the channel at work (CBYC) I tend to see compass, barrel and moon jellyfish though and I have great pleasure of bombing through with our ribs, in the bay there are no jellys due to fresh water (thank god)

 

What colour were they mate? 

Edited June 13, 2021 by viking_smb

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We are now entering the timeframe (which I tend to call squeaky bum time) as to how, where and when storms will happen, shift or get corrected. At the moment, it is still looking like game on for many (Solent to the Wash and Eastwards very much so). If you’re in Cornwall, Wales or West of Dorset, a chase may well be required, at present anyway. There is still time for westwards correction however. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Thundery activity confirmed on the forecast for the week ahead on BBC Country File earlier this evening. Starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday. I am going across the Pennines to the North Yorkshire coast again this week, and it looks as though we shall be right on the northern edge of the bad weather there.

Edited June 13, 2021 by A Face like Thunder

[ChannelThunder]

Uh-oh - an eastward correction on the 18z goofus...