Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[viking_smb]

5 hours ago, Lance M said:

Not liking the amount of ridging of the Azores High in the models.

It does make for some really nice summer weather and not too much overbearing heat or humidity, but it doesn't make for any plumes or other thundery-type set-ups.

 

that will suit me down to the ground, I prefer that, i hate plumes etc, 

[Bolt From Blue]

Anyone in east Kent? Looks like some cells fired south offshore in the last 15mins.

Edit: Not gaining any traction.

Edited June 4, 2021 by Bolt From Blue

[Eagle Eye]

Would be nice to have this woudnt it 

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be nice to have this woudnt it 

I was about to say 'blimey!' and ask when on Earth that happened! Then I realised it's a Photoshop with repeating identical storms 

[LightningLover]

19 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be nice to have this woudnt it 

Put some on the East Sussex coastline and you have yourself a deal!

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Put some on the East Sussex coastline and you have yourself a deal!

[Eagle Eye]

23 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I was about to say 'blimey!' and ask when on Earth that happened! Then I realised it's a Photoshop with repeating identical storms 

The storms across France today 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Cancel your plans

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tomorrow actually looking rather interesting in the evening hours. East Midlands and E Anglia especially, with some models showing what looks like elevated storms kicking off overnight, preceded by some afternoon ones which could be surfaced based. 

Euro4, Arome and WRF all in pretty solid agreement at around 18:00 

Also looks to be a bit of wind shear, and very light converging winds at the surface for many areas. Not looking too bad. Not sure what the DP’s are forecast to be. We’ll see what the experts here have to say in due course. 

[Harry]

20 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be nice to have this woudnt it 

Could you imagine the thread would go into meltdown. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Tomorrow actually looking rather interesting in the evening hours. East Midlands and E Anglia especially, with some models showing what looks like elevated storms kicking off overnight, preceded by some afternoon ones which could be surfaced based. 

Euro4, Arome and WRF all in pretty solid agreement at around 18:00 

Also looks to be a bit of wind shear, and very light converging winds at the surface for many areas. Not looking too bad. Not sure what the DP’s are forecast to be. We’ll see what the experts here have to say in due course. 

I’ve been hearing about this, although from the quick look I had earlier it doesn’t seem that the GFS or ICON are at all interested.

I am pretty keen to get out mid afternoon tomo and head round the M25 to somewhere like Harpenden and hang out with the laptop to see what develops from there...

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 06 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 07 Jun 2021

ISSUED 06:14 UTC Sun 06 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weakening frontal boundary will drift slowly northeastwards across Britain on Sunday, associated with moist low-levels and patchy rain. Through the day diurnal heating and resultant convective overturning will likely cause initially extensive cloud to gradually thin and break and turn increasingly convective in nature with time. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will also drift slowly northeastwards through the day, the associated cold pocket aloft aiding to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates and increase instability - with scope for 300-600 J/kg CAPE in places. The net result is initial patchy rain will translate to scattered heavy showers by the afternoon and evening hours, particularly focussed along convergence boundaries (sea breeze and peninsula) and orographic forcing (especially Wales). 

A marked dry intrusion aloft will spread gradually northeastwards with time, although the exact shape/timing varies between model guidance and this may have some impact on highlighting specific areas with the best lightning potential. In theory, the leading edge of this dry intrusion holds the best potential, as ultimately the following substantial subsidence aloft will tend to restrict the depth of convection. Therefore a favourable overlap of low-level forced ascent and leading edge of dry intrusion will be key for identifying region(s) with potential for deepest convection / lightning potential. Either way, numerous showers are likely to develop, but only a few may produce some sporadic lightning. Given light winds, shear in the low-levels is relatively weak and so many showers will tend to be of pulse-type variety - however, if deep convection can grow tall enough to utilise the stronger mid-level flow, then these may be able to last longer and produce some hail. The very moist low-level environment (dewpoints of 14-15C) and associated low cloud bases suggests at least the potential for a few funnel clouds or weak tornado, especially near convergence boundaries. Showers may continue to develop well into the evening hours before a gradual decay overnight.

[Harry]

It is rather humid feeling here this morning I suspect should any showers form in this environment they’ll be quite torrential, even if there are questions over the extent of any lightning.

[Paul Sherman]

23 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Tomorrow actually looking rather interesting in the evening hours. East Midlands and E Anglia especially, with some models showing what looks like elevated storms kicking off overnight, preceded by some afternoon ones which could be surfaced based. 

Euro4, Arome and WRF all in pretty solid agreement at around 18:00 

Also looks to be a bit of wind shear, and very light converging winds at the surface for many areas. Not looking too bad. Not sure what the DP’s are forecast to be. We’ll see what the experts here have to say in due course. 

To my untrained eye you are in a brilliant position for something much better Monday afternoon and Evening. All Models showing something a lot better than 20-30 minute Pulse type storms that we will probably be plagued with today.

Best Areas Monday look to be East Anglia / Wash / Cambs / Linc / E Yorks

Timing looks to be from 1400 to 2000

 

[matty40s]

Wow, the morning drizzle and mist has cleared North and the temperature and humidity has shot up with the sun near Coalville.

Today's cells appear to be kicking off between East Birmingham and Tamworth.

[Eye to the sky]

It's been raining steadily for 3 hours just north of Derby.The way things are going I might have to cancel the bbq!!.

[Bolt From Blue]

Quite extensive convective stratiform which may indicate the dry air intrusion has yet to reach here or we are now dependant on CZs later.

Not that anything major was set to happen anyway, but it could be one of those catch 22 stratiform problems unless things time well this afternoon and evening, that is clearer slots, deeper convection along CZs along with overlap of dry air.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Might this be the dry intrusion I'm looking at or is it just wishful thinking?

[Harry]

Sitting under a lot of cloud now with a few spots. Most of the day has been bright and very warm/muggy. Models were indicating a peak in activity later today and for the first part of the night so still early days.

[matty40s]

Near Loughborough.

[Sparkiee storm]

Some convection getting going now there is decent sunny spells.

[matty40s]

Lutterworth...

[ancientsolar]

Sferics over Wales, ~ If I could drive. Brecon would be a beautiful place to see some towering clouds i'm sure!

[matty40s]

Market Harborough one going up

[Sparkiee storm]

Think these are the showers/storms that are meant to track NE through the evening. Possible more breaking out. Muggy feeling too.