Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[viking_smb]

20 minutes ago, Ceejay said:

MetO just issued a yellow warning of T-Storms for the SW. After what feels like a 2 year membership in the No Storms Club, I'm approaching moderate excitement...

To be fair to the met office they are pretty good, i'm glad the warning is not near me, 

[ancientsolar]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

To be fair to the met office they are pretty good, i'm glad the warning is not near me, 

30 miles isn't exactly far from you either  

[viking_smb]

11 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

30 miles isn't exactly far from you either  

30 miles makes a difference though lol 

[Sparkiee storm]

BBC and Estofex thinks something might happen tomorrow evening and overnight. Not getting hopes too high, but its risen a little from the past few days. Wonder if the Midlands will do great again this summer. Hopefully other places will do good this summer too who missed out on last years beasts.

[ancientsolar]

16 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

BBC and Estofex thinks something might happen tomorrow evening and overnight. Not getting hopes too high, but its risen a little from the past few days. Wonder if the Midlands will do great again this summer. Hopefully other places will do good this summer too who missed out on last years beasts.

Those temperatures look off ? surely they will be up in the low 20s.. unless there's thick cloud cover ?

[Sparkiee storm]

19 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Those temperatures look off ? surely they will be up in the low 20s.. unless there's thick cloud cover ?

They are for 7pm, 1am and 4am, so that's expected for those times. 4pm showed 25/26 here and about 21 for South Wales. I should of included the time on the images.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Sparkiee storm

[Chris.R]

going to be so hot here tomorrow. Perhaps might get something interesting tomorrow evening although WRF is quite poor atm with regards to amount of CAPE. Let’s see.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Chris.R

[Cheshire Freeze]

Lastest GFS builds precipitation and storm risk higher than it has so far for tomorrow afternoon. 

[Chris.R]

WRF also a bit more interested in something round these parts late tomorrow.

[Eagle Eye]

First storms setting up.

Perhaps something brushing the southeast tommorrow night. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Does appear to me that there is a very low risk of an explosive/strong thunderstorm across CS England tomorrow based upon a number of models. Looks like somewhat of a loaded-gun scenario given the dry low-mid levels, very low risk but there nonetheless. UKV suggest min of 26-28'c may initiate some convection mid-afternoon tomorrow, with potentially up to 1,500J/Kg of CAPE building up.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite a tasty looking little cell West of Rennes. Hopefully more to come! 

Some areas may see some decent activity tomorrow. You don’t always necessarily need colourful charts for a cracker. Look at earlier on in spring when that belter hit Yorkshire late evening during 14 - 15c max temps! 

[BrickFielder]

Still unsure about tomorrows storm potential with the general indicators suggesting only mild convection generally moving into the south west from mid morning and moving northwards. The upper level jet streak exit should give some wind divergence aloft suggesting a tendency for upward air motion and over shooting tops.

Forecast Skewts highlight all the model risks with storm forecasts with shallow surface moisture over egging convection on some models, moist mid levels giving messy convection etc. Looking at the Cardiff forecast SkewT I see messy convection with a weak storm mixed in, whilst for the midlands I see more discreet convection but clouds never reaching storm heights.

 

Different models have different ideas about the parameters with different convection modelling and forecasters are unlikely to say anything more than there is a vague potential until models are better aligned (perhaps tomorrow). My best guess is the Met Office model will handle this particular situation best.

 

The problem is that with a few minor differences a similar scenario in the past threw up some unexpected quite severe storms. That scenario gave weakly cyclonic pulse storms which back built and developed localized wind fields. My best guess at the moment is the minor scenario differences are enough to very much limit convection particularly the differences in mid to upper level lapse rates.
 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The models have really poorly modelled the storms over NW France at the moment, most have shown nothing at all/of note. Isn't until 3-4am that most initiate anything significant.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[viking_smb]

@staplehurst any ideas/updates about tonight mate please

[viking_smb]

9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The models have really poorly modelled the storms over NW France at the moment, most have shown nothing at all/of note. Isn't until 3-4am that most initiate anything significant.

we wont get anything tonight, the far south west will get it tonight, our turn daytime tomorrow mate

[Allseasons-Si]

Those storms over NW France have really exploded,could be some surprises come tomorrow.

 

[staplehurst]

8 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

@staplehurst any ideas/updates about tonight mate please

Not a great deal to add to be honest, all going roughly to expectations - small cells firing over the western English Channel and it'll just be a case of watching radar developments through the remainder of the night. Some earlier high-res model runs were suggesting elevated thunderstorms not far from The Lizard/Lands End by midnight-1am, more recent runs have knocked this back to 3am (ish) but realistically this is a post-midnight event, and more especially the latter part of the night for Cornwall/Scilly, and perhaps eventually Devon at the very end of the night. 

Edited June 1, 2021 by staplehurst

[viking_smb]

6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Not a great deal to add to be honest, all going roughly to expectations - small cells firing over the western English Channel and it'll just be a case of watching radar developments through the remainder of the night. Some earlier high-res model runs were suggesting elevated thunderstorms not far from The Lizard/Lands End by midnight-1am, more recent runs have knocked this back to 3am (wish) but realistically this is a post-midnight event, and more especially the latter part of the night for Cornwall/Scilly, and perhaps eventually Devon at the end of the night. 

thanks dan, much appreciated I always look forward to your forecasts as you are always on the mark, even though i'm off work (back in monday) I want a decent nights sleep, but worse case scenario we do get a storm, I will drive down to the sea front to get photos

Edited June 1, 2021 by viking_smb

[Liam Burge]

Hopefully I get something here. Unfortunately I am just outside of the yellow risk for Thunderstorms but am remaining hopeful.

[Zak M]

Some hefty showers just developed from nowhere off the coast of Brittany.  

Edited June 1, 2021 by Zak M

[viking_smb]

11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Some hefty showers just developed from nowhere off the coast of Brittany.  

thats in line with dans predictions, they will move nw towards the scilly isles and southern ireland, the lighthouse keepers working on the scilly isles lights will be treated to a nice lightshow tonight

Edited June 1, 2021 by viking_smb

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As others have said tomorrow is really interesting 

That's an atmosphere ripe for all kinds of storms it's the ones shown individually that catch my eye wouldn't be ruling out the chance of a supercell but its a really tough one to call so the morning runs will be worth looking at 

[Mapantz]

Floccus I think?!

[philglossop]

Beautiful sunrise here- deep deep red and now its orange. Looking at radar, it's raining in Kernow (Cornwall) . Such a shame this front has come in 12 hrs too early as the heat of the day would have been our saviour.