Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[Hodgheg]

16 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

John, the person who runs the group lives in....Hull I'd give it a try.

Oh dear, now I have egg on my face.. I hope I didn’t cause offence. Just a little tongue and cheek. 
 

I wonder if we will see any unexpected surprises today. Hull seems to have been unlucky to catch any isolated showers of late. Already seeing some towering CU to the south of us. The bbc graphics do show a few heavy showers later on today. The metoffice forecast map seems less keen. 
 

like yesterday then Humber seems to be creating some sort of boundary allowing convention. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by John90

[Aiden2020]

Some biggish clouds starting to develop in East Yorkshire again today, what’s causing it ? 

[Harry]

18 hours ago, John90 said:

Impressive convection for a day that was supposed to be dry. I was looking towards this cell watching some rapidly rising scud but had to leave to take the husband for his covid jab. 
 

PS I’d try to join the group but being from Hull I don’t think they’d let me in. 

When did you move to Hull? Bet you didn’t expect to be moving to tornado alley

I’m Southampton this weekend and it is surprisingly humid feeling. I would suspect that this is the source of the convective signs being seen over the past couple of days

Edited May 29, 2021 by Harry

[ChannelThunder]

The latest GFS slows down the storm potential well into Weds night now, with a higher chance of a nighttime light show - I hope this is a trend that sticks for forthcoming runs.

[Hodgheg]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

When did you move to Hull? Bet you didn’t expect to be moving to tornado alley

I’m Southampton this weekend and it is surprisingly humid feeling. I would suspect that this is the source of the convective signs being seen over the past couple of days

Moved back here in December. Going to miss the MCS’ like I saw down south. Today’s morning convection died off. Gorgeous proper spring day now. 

[Eagle Eye]

Netweather backing these storms happening and within quite reliable time, still not close enough to get too excited yet. 

[NUT]

42 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Netweather backing these storms happening and within quite reliable time, still not close enough to get too excited yet. 

Did take a while but GFS finally on the same hymn sheet regarding the storms. Now next week (later on during the week) and possibly beyond? Looking interesting

[Sprites]

On 28/05/2021 at 17:41, Muffelchen said:

In a private group here if you can work out how to access it: 

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Any reports of damage with this?, looks to be on, or very close to the ground.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Sprites

[LightningLover]

GFS 06z is a cracker throughout! Plenty of scope for elevated thunderstorms with that slack S/SE flow and fairly high 850hPa temps. Low pressure moves northwards at the end, which briefly advects even higher upper air temperatures before eventually breaking things down during the final few frames. 

[Mapantz]

The GFS shows it stable here for the next ten days.

[ChannelThunder]

Yeah, I think over the last 2 days with each run, 'stable' has become the main takeaway from the models. The latest GFS now keeps any activity on Fri/Sat WELL away in the continent, likewise many of the other models.

I guess we could still see a few sparks from Wednesday's shallow low pushing northward. West is looking best for that nearer the low's centre.

[LightningLover]

Ah, probably just my storm-starved spectacles! haha

[viking_smb]

40 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, I think over the last 2 days with each run, 'stable' has become the main takeaway from the models. The latest GFS now keeps any activity on Fri/Sat WELL away in the continent, likewise many of the other models.

I guess we could still see a few sparks from Wednesday's shallow low pushing northward. West is looking best for that nearer the low's centre.

as long its during the day i'm ok with it

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

as long its during the day i'm ok with it

hoping we get something  

[Mapantz]

UKV shows showery rain as we move in to Wednesday. Downpours with some lightning perhaps, but convective potential looks a little weak.

 

Edited May 31, 2021 by Mapantz
Phone is adding words by itself

[ChannelThunder]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV doesn't really shows showery rain as we move in to Wednesday. Downpours with some lightning perhaps, but convective potential looks a little weak.

 

Yeah, that sums it up; a plume lacking enough of a punch to excite me.

Saying that, if I lived in Cornwall I'd be reasonably confident about seeing something. We shall see what @staplehurst makes of tomorrow night down there shortly I suspect!

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, that sums it up; a plume lacking enough of a punch to excite me.

Saying that, if I lived in Cornwall I'd be reasonably confident about seeing something. We shall see what @staplehurst makes of tomorrow night down there shortly I suspect!

Hopefully, there may be a surprise? Usually the unexpected stuff is the best..

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

UKV shows showery rain as we move in to Wednesday. Downpours with some lightning perhaps, but convective potential looks a little weak.

 

I would rather that than massive storms, as I want sleep 

[BrickFielder]

Just been having a close look at Wednesday Afternoon and although there are ingredients for storms the modelling is not really playing ball. We do have upper level wind divergence due to the jet streak approaching Southern Ireland and we have a surface trough bringing some concentrated moist air. Low level wind convergence and turning winds as you go up the atmosphere would suggest longer lived convection. 

The problem is that mid to upper level lapse rates are very poor limiting cloud height, convection relies on dewpoints above 15C which is rare for the UK. Experience tells me to be wary of knee deep humidity showing up as storms being modelled. Having taken this into account we should also consider temperatures are likely to hit mid 20s on Wednesday which is not well modelled and upper levels look like typical June modelling which will not be taking into account the effects of the May weather pattern.

At the minute there is very little suggestion of storms for Wednesday but I have some doubts about some of the parameters showing in the modelling. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer to Wednesday at the modelling becomes more accurate.

 

 

[NUT]

Doesn't seem like a classic thundery breakdown to me maybe some showers but we still relatively young in the season plenty more opportunities down the line

[Harry]

2 hours ago, NUT said:

Doesn't seem like a classic thundery breakdown to me maybe some showers but we still relatively young in the season plenty more opportunities down the line

Indeed. Let’s hope June-Aug bring some good plumes this year. Historically, La Niña years tend to be less conducive for decent plume storms for my neck of the woods, whereas El Niño years tend to be better. This year I think I’m right in saying is mid-La Niña.
 

Would love to know if there are any stats that support/destroy this theory.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Harry

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

29 minutes ago, Harry said:

Indeed. Let’s hope June-Aug bring some good plumes this year. Historically, La Niña years tend to be less conducive for decent plume storms for my neck of the woods, whereas El Niño years tend to be better. This year I think I’m right in saying is mid-La Niña.
 

Would love to know if there are any stats that support/destroy this theory.

That would certainly be an interesting case study. Someone like Gavin partridge (Gavsweathervids.com) usually is very good at historical stats and patterns coinciding with events. 

[ChannelThunder]

12 hours ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, that sums it up; a plume lacking enough of a punch to excite me.

Saying that, if I lived in Cornwall I'd be reasonably confident about seeing something. We shall see what @staplehurst makes of tomorrow night down there shortly I suspect!

Yep, Slight issued for the far southwest!

Convective Weather

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Sorry, haven't got time to paste it all in here.

[Harry]

Interesting punt from Estofex for tomorrow. 

[Ceejay]

MetO just issued a yellow warning of T-Storms for the SW. After what feels like a 2 year membership in the No Storms Club, I'm approaching moderate excitement...