Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Getting good insollation now that the light rain has cleared away.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
6 hours ago, Supacell said:

Video uploaded for Tuesdays hailstorms

 

 

Amazing footage of hailstorms in the Peak District @Supacell. It looked like some areas were subject to prolonged periods of hail going by the accumulations. Lovely area to observe the activity. I have done some walks in the Peak District in the past. Great scenery and plenty of 'big' skies. ...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

1st strike near… yes you guessed it… Warrington. Really seems to be a thunder magnet that place, definitely moving around there next year. Anyway Nice to see things starting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

And now another cell north of Holmes Chapel

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Looks like a meaty bunch of showers slowly going north in Scotland.................

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
32 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

And now another cell north of Holmes Chapel

Thats cell has just produced thunder here

C.S

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Church Stretton, Shropshire (229m / 751ft asl)
  • Location: Church Stretton, Shropshire (229m / 751ft asl)

Storm just blown up out of nowhere in Shropshire - thunder and lightning south of Much Wenlock

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
21 minutes ago, neil_b said:

Storm just blown up out of nowhere in Shropshire - thunder and lightning south of Much Wenlock

and all going East To West , at least here anyway

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Church Stretton, Shropshire (229m / 751ft asl)
  • Location: Church Stretton, Shropshire (229m / 751ft asl)

It seems to have setup on a convergence line not far from me and stayed put the last hour whilst now extending SW down into W Herefordshire.   Quite a lot of activity but seems to be quietening down now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Just slightly too far west for the convergence zone today. Just constant rain now and not very nice.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
11 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Wow look at that. 

Screenshot_20210513_185623.jpg

Yes if that is correct it looks like Sunday could be quite an interesting day weatherwise.....

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
14 hours ago, Supacell said:

Video uploaded for Tuesdays hailstorms

 

 

Nice compilation mate,loved that bit when the windscreen wiper was wedging the hail at the bottom,i had that happen to me once and the wiper mechanism popped out of the ball joint,that last bit of the clip i really liked and that was probably the storm that hit us from 10pm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
22 hours ago, minus10 said:

Amazing footage of hailstorms in the Peak District @Supacell. It looked like some areas were subject to prolonged periods of hail going by the accumulations. Lovely area to observe the activity. I have done some walks in the Peak District in the past. Great scenery and plenty of 'big' skies. ...

Thank you. Indeed I am lucky to have the Peak District on my door step. The hail was accumulating fairly quickly so within 10-20 minutes everything was covered. 

14 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Nice compilation mate,loved that bit when the windscreen wiper was wedging the hail at the bottom,i had that happen to me once and the wiper mechanism popped out of the ball joint,that last bit of the clip i really liked and that was probably the storm that hit us from 10pm.

Thank you. Yes I was getting concerned about my wipers at one point. I have had ice wedging before, but in winter whilst driving through heavy snow. 

The storm at the end was the one that headed up north and would have hit you. At the point I filmed it I think the storms were in a line from about Chesterfield to Newark.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

I do have a name on youtube but Supacell (honestly had no idea it was you to I saw the vid you posted on here the other day) I have watched your storm chasing videos for quite a while! Gotta admit you do them good

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Interestingly my local forecast, BBC East Midlands, mentioned the potential of seeing a few funnel clouds on Sunday. 
 

I’ve never heard them say anything like this before? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
6 hours ago, NUT said:

I do have a name on youtube but Supacell (honestly had no idea it was you to I saw the vid you posted on here the other day) I have watched your storm chasing videos for quite a while! Gotta admit you do them good

Thank you, that is kind of you to say and I am happy you are enjoying them

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.11f310a04ba1f84177c79c406e6a5efb.png

Day 2 Convective Outlook: Sat 15 May 2021

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 May 2021

ISSUED 21:46 UTC Fri 14 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold air in the mid-levels will spread eastwards across the UK/Ireland on Saturday, following the passage of a weakening occlusion. The net result is an environment with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and unstable to SSTs and surface heating inland. As such, 300-600 J/kg skinny CAPE is likely with numerous showers developing quickly in response to diurnal heating, tending to become organised along distinct zones of low-level convergence - such as along portions of southern England, a zone from Wales to the south Midlands and across portions of Ireland. Even the occlusion across parts of northern and eastern England is likely to turn increasingly convective/showery in nature through the day. Sporadic lightning will be possible from virtually any shower that develops, making it difficult to highlight specific areas - so for now have introduced two SLGTs where shower coverage should be more widespread, but lightning is certainly possible outside of these areas too. The SLGTs may be expanded/other areas added on Saturday morning if confidence increases.

For the most part, deep layer shear will be relatively weak leading to pulse-type storm mode much of the time - however, a notable wind-shift line associated with slightly higher dewpoints in the light south/southeasterly flow ahead vs relatively lower dewpoints and a breezier westerly flow behind may be the focus for locally enhanced directional shear, especially in the low-levels and may encourage some weak updraft rotation. Current guidance suggests this boundary will be located from east Wales to Southampton around 12z and will shift and pivot northeastwards with time, aligned Birmingham-Dover around 15z and Birmingham-Ipswich by 18z (although possibly losing its identity by this stage). A similar situation is also true for the Irish Midlands, with a light easterly surface flow on the leading edge of the main shower activity likely enhancing low-level shear. However the exact strength and location of such small-scale features is subject to some uncertainty. 

 

Main hazards will be small hail and localised surface water flooding from showers training over similar areas. Enhanced low-level vorticity along convergence zones may encourage a couple of funnel clouds to develop. Showers will tend to weaken in intensity through the evening hours, but some will persist right through the night - especially near southern and western coastal areas, but not exclusively so. Therefore there will be an ongoing low risk of isolated lightning overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

UPDATED:-

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 May 2021

ISSUED 06:53 UTC Sat 15 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold air in the mid-levels will spread eastwards across the UK/Ireland on Saturday, following the passage of a weakening occlusion. The net result is an environment with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and unstable to SSTs and surface heating inland. As such, 300-600 J/kg skinny CAPE is likely with numerous showers developing quickly in response to diurnal heating, tending to become organised along distinct zones of low-level convergence - such as along portions of southern England, a zone from Wales to the south Midlands and across portions of Ireland. Even the occlusion across parts of northern and eastern England is likely to turn increasingly convective/showery in nature through the day. Sporadic lightning will be possible from virtually any shower that develops, making it difficult to highlight specific areas - so for now have introduced two SLGTs where shower coverage should be more widespread, but lightning is certainly possible outside of these areas too. Overall, Ireland is most likely to see more widespread/active lightning activity. 

For the most part, deep layer shear will be relatively weak leading to pulse-type storm mode much of the time - however, a notable wind-shift line with a light south/southeasterly flow ahead vs a breezier westerly flow behind may be the focus for locally enhanced directional shear, especially in the low-levels and may encourage some weak updraft rotation. Guidance varies considerably over the exact shape and location of this boundary at a given time, but generally located from west Wales to central southern England at 12z and shifting northeast to be somewhere around Liverpool-Colchester by 18z. A similar situation is also true for the Irish Midlands, with a light easterly surface flow on the leading edge of the main shower activity likely enhancing low-level shear. A small surface low from Surrey through to north Kent/the Thames Estuary during the afternoon may further aid the potential for low-level rotation. However the exact strength and location of such small-scale features is subject to some uncertainty. 

 

Main hazards will be small hail and localised surface water flooding from showers training over similar areas. Enhanced low-level vorticity along convergence zones may encourage a couple of funnel clouds to develop. Showers will tend to weaken in intensity through the evening hours, but some will persist right through the night - especially near southern and western coastal areas, but not exclusively so. Therefore there will be an ongoing low risk of isolated lightning overnight.

largethumb.thumb.png.13ac55ad8bd177f14249f53f43339407.png

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Estofex for both Sat and Sun.

2021051606_202105142159_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.43872f7ba221415de87bcb95044fbf0a.png2021051706_202105142254_1_extendedforecast_xml.thumb.png.9b771e9d496ebb8d9d468202598066bf.png

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...