Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[lottiekent]

The next lot of rain moving up over northern France doesn’t like it has any electrical activity in it so that might be it for tonight? 

[alexisj9]

Had another heavy shower, about an hour ago, no thunder, and the stuff in channel looks like just rain. Think this morning's over active little storm, used most of the energy up.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Taken in Folkestone last night by extreme weather who posted it on Facebook, just crazy. 

 

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 10TH MAY 2021

Issued 2021-05-10 10:08:21
Valid: 10/05/2021 0600 - 11/05/2021 0600

Forecast Details

Longwave upper trough axis will lie north-south and slow-moving across western Europe on Monday, with a surface low also slow-moving and slowly filling just to the west of Ireland. A strong moist SWly flow aloft and at the surface will become increasingly unstable to surface heating overland through the day, due to presence of cold air of upper trough aloft (-25 to -30C at 500 hPa). This instability will be greatest with closest proximity to colder air aloft towards the west and longest land fetch in the southwesterly flow, so from SW England and E Wales northeastwards across Midlands, N England and E Scotland … also across northern Rep. of Ireland and N. Ireland. Here insolation of moist airmass and fairly steep lapse rates forecast to yield 300-600 j/kg CAPE range this afternoon – supporting increasingly widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms. Any storms may produce hail and strong convective wind gusts of up to 40-50mph locally, particularly later in the afternoon – as drier air intrusion is modelled to spread NE across parts of Midlands and E/NE England – here and N. Ireland/far N of Rep. could be the focus of most numerous thunderstorm activity for a time, so 30% probs of t-storm is delineated. Heavy showers and risk of isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across UK and Ireland. SE England and southern E Anglia seeing showers but limited depth and weaker lapse rates here suggest t-storm risk low.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Forecast on Netweather forecasts here: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Arnie Pie]

Slight chance here in Brum...Hopefully some heavier cells pushing through this afternoon

 

[matty40s]

Up we go north of northampton

[Liam Taylor]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 10TH MAY 2021

Issued 2021-05-10 10:08:21
Valid: 10/05/2021 0600 - 11/05/2021 0600

Forecast Details

Longwave upper trough axis will lie north-south and slow-moving across western Europe on Monday, with a surface low also slow-moving and slowly filling just to the west of Ireland. A strong moist SWly flow aloft and at the surface will become increasingly unstable to surface heating overland through the day, due to presence of cold air of upper trough aloft (-25 to -30C at 500 hPa). This instability will be greatest with closest proximity to colder air aloft towards the west and longest land fetch in the southwesterly flow, so from SW England and E Wales northeastwards across Midlands, N England and E Scotland … also across northern Rep. of Ireland and N. Ireland. Here insolation of moist airmass and fairly steep lapse rates forecast to yield 300-600 j/kg CAPE range this afternoon – supporting increasingly widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms. Any storms may produce hail and strong convective wind gusts of up to 40-50mph locally, particularly later in the afternoon – as drier air intrusion is modelled to spread NE across parts of Midlands and E/NE England – here and N. Ireland/far N of Rep. could be the focus of most numerous thunderstorm activity for a time, so 30% probs of t-storm is delineated. Heavy showers and risk of isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across UK and Ireland. SE England and southern E Anglia seeing showers but limited depth and weaker lapse rates here suggest t-storm risk low.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Forecast on Netweather forecasts here: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Looking good for me in Doncaster 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just heard thunder so my S/SW.

Edit,....and again,woo hoo.

[Allseasons-Si]

Had a direct hit here,...it was nuts with pea sized hail and at least a dozen or so of thunder and lightning

unfortunately i have to go to work but i will upload some pics and vid later.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Gray-Wolf]

Banging over Blackburn way and that big one from Salford bearing down upon us here!

[Arnie Pie]

Getting dark around these parts

[ChezWeather]

Heard a couple of distant rumbles here but the heaviest of the precip has gone either side of us over Sheffield and Derby 

[weirpig]

44 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Getting dark around these parts

Some potent showers heading up now from cardiff area  

[Eagle Eye]

Looking good. 

[The PIT]

Had a few rumbles today and for once it wasn't my stomach. Will be using our allocation up. Last year was a bumper year for us compared to normal.

[Weather-history]

A little bit of thunder with wonderful cloudscapes during the early afternoon

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is a few pics of the storm from earlier before i went to work

then this was developing behind it,you can just see the edge of the storm to the left that went over,this is viewing NE

i am just going through the video footage now and will upload in a short while.

[Allseasons-Si]

I was a bit disappointed with the three clips i went through and narrowed them down to just one but hey ho it's a start 

i live on a quiet street and as it happens(sods law)three cars was coming up the street whilst i was filming

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Eagle Eye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 May 2021

 

ISSUED 18:35 UTC Mon 10 May 2021

 

ISSUED BY: Dan

 

Upper trough will sharpen and become increasingly negatively-tilted as it lifts northwards across England and Wales on Tuesday. The net result is increasing PVA/divergence on the forward flank of this feature, aiding broad lift/ascent. Scattered showers will already be present across parts of SW England and Wales initially, and diurnal heating inland will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE with showers become more numerous with time through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England. Upscale growth seems likely into an area of showery rain over northern England and southern Scotland by the evening hours, and this may result in a gradual decline in lightning activity as a result (aside from isolated pockets such as on the western flank into SW Scotland etc). Particular attention is given to Yorks/Lincs/Derbys/Notts/Leics which, combined with 30-40kts bulk shear, will likely see increasing low-level shear as surface winds back and strengthen through the afternoon. This could encourage updrafts to rotate, presenting the risk of an isolated tornado and/or wind gusts to 40-50mph. However, some concerns about cloud amounts/moist profiles exist.

 

Further areas of showery rain associated with a wrap-around occlusion will also move into SW England, although this could tend to fragment and turn more convective through the afternoon/evening hours (especially south Wales / West Country). Within this area convergence-driven funnel clouds/weak tornado may be possible. Showery rain will also affect southern Ireland, but parts of Munster could see some cloud breaks and the chance for heavy showers / isolated lightning in the afternoon hours. Also monitoring a corridor from northern Leinster to western Ulster but forecast profiles are very dry with weak shear so it seems likely any convection may struggle to be sustained for any length of time. Deeper convection and isolated lightning strikes will also be possible in the afternoon/early evening over Caithness/Sutherland. 

 

Most activity will weaken or merge into areas of showery rain through the evening/night, but a few lightning strikes may be possible for a time over the north Midlands/southern Northern England, while elevated convection may feed into Aberdeenshire and environs with a risk of a few isolated lightning strikes.

Met weather's outlook for today.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Gordon Webb]

just updated

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 May 2021

ISSUED 06:29 UTC Tue 11 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will sharpen and become increasingly negatively-tilted as it lifts northwards across England and Wales on Tuesday. The net result is increasing PVA/divergence on the forward flank of this feature, aiding broad lift/ascent. Scattered showers will already be present across parts of SW England and Wales initially, and diurnal heating inland will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE with showers become more numerous with time through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England. Upscale growth seems likely into an area of showery rain over northern England and southern Scotland by the evening hours, and this may result in a gradual decline in lightning activity as a result (aside from isolated pockets such as on the western flank into SW Scotland etc).

Particular attention is given to Yorks/Lincs/Derbys/Notts/Leics/Norfolk which, combined with 30-40kts bulk shear, will likely see increasing low-level shear as surface winds back and strengthen through the afternoon. This could encourage updrafts to rotate, presenting the risk of an isolated tornado and/or wind gusts to 40-50mph. However, some concerns about cloud amounts/moist profiles exist. A separate round of shower/thunderstorm activity may intensify over the north Midlands into northern England through the evening hours, so it is possible some locations may experience two waves of activity before a gradual weakening towards midnight.

Further areas of showery rain associated with a wrap-around occlusion will also move into SW England, although this could tend to fragment and turn more convective through the afternoon/evening hours (especially south Wales / West Country / SW Midlands). Within this area non-mesocyclonic funnel clouds/weak tornado may be possible. Showery rain will also affect southern Ireland, but parts of Munster could see some cloud breaks and the chance for heavy showers / isolated lightning in the afternoon hours. Also monitoring a corridor from northern Leinster to western Ulster but forecast profiles are very dry with weak shear so it seems likely any convection may struggle to be sustained for any length of time. Deeper convection and isolated lightning strikes will also be possible in the afternoon/early evening over Caithness/Sutherland. Elevated convection may feed into Aberdeenshire and environs overnight, with perhaps a few isolated lightning strikes - but low confidence.

map has also changed slight but am having difficulty posting that

Convective Weather

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Gordon Webb
Added Image

[Sparkiee storm]

Got a feeling today could be a good day, Dan's forecast looks nice. Early morning cumulus already getting going here.

[Eagle Eye]

29 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 map has also changed slight but am having difficulty posting that

 

Either copy the image on the left or download it and upload it like that. 

[Gordon Webb]

20 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Either copy the image on the left or download it and upload it like that. 

yep copy and paste worked , simplest ways always the best

thanks

[Supacell]

My area could be well placed today. I am going to be heading out chasing this afternoon.  Hopefully can find my first storm of 2021

[Gordon Webb]

wonder what those in the SE are thinking with Dans forecast with this line

Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England

I think I can hear it now : not this again hope this isn't the pattern for the next 3 months or so

well think on the bright side you can go chasing from Monday