Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards

[Zak M]

I'm getting 21 Aug 2020 vibes from this!

Edited May 9, 2021 by Zak M

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Zak M said:

I'm getting 21 Aug 2020 vibes from this!

Looking increasingly likely such scenes will be repeated tonight, in my opinion. Just trying to decide whether a distant light show over the channel/North Sea is worth a 2 hour drive later

[StormLoser]

Morning all! Coming out of hibernation here after a long, miserable winter.      Hope you are all OK Covid-wise!

The bright echoes moving into the North Sea caught my eye. I see that agrees with Estofex nicely.

The Met Office are hinting at the possibility of thundery showers in SE this evening. What's our chances?

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Could always drive the two hours and then jump on a wee boat out into the North Sea. 

Latest Estofex.

 

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

Distant light show over the Channel/North Sea and the risk of something overhead - depends how storm starved you are @Lance M!? 

As has been flagged up by numerous models/forecasts/outlooks - SE Kent looks fairly decent.

The last storms I thoroughly enjoyed/was able to photograph were in Oklahoma some 23 months ago now, so yeah, pretty damn starved to be honest after last year's letdowns! 

6z Arome still looks promising for the ol' Kent clippers. It does tend to overdo things a little, but it's worth noting previous runs picked up this morning's activity through the Dover Strait, and the 6z itself even picks up on the showery activity moving through the Brighton area currently.

[LightningLover]

30 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The last storms I thoroughly enjoyed/was able to photograph were in Oklahoma some 23 months ago now, so yeah, pretty damn starved to be honest after last year's letdowns! 

6z Arome still looks promising for the ol' Kent clippers. It does tend to overdo things a little, but it's worth noting previous runs picked up this morning's activity through the Dover Strait, and the 6z itself even picks up on the showery activity moving through the Brighton area currently.

I really can't wait to visit the states in the future... Their climate(s) are just incredible!

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 09 MAY 2021

Issued 2021-05-09 12:51:41
Valid: 09/05/2021 1200 - 10/05/2021 0600

Forecast Details

Upper longwave trough close to the west of the British Isles will make slow progress eastwards over the next 24 hours. At the surface, a fairly deep low will be slow-moving and fill just the west of Ireland during the forecast period. A brisk and moist southerly flow covers much of the UK and Ireland. The moist airmass unstable across Ireland this afternoon – where colder air aloft with closer proximity to upper trough is creating steep lapse rates with surface heating – supporting heavy showers and some thunderstorms. Further east across England, a cold front lying S/C England to Lincs and separating warm higher theta-w plume over SE and near continent will slowly clear east this afternoon and evening. Some mid-level instability on the NW edge of the plume pushing NE across northern France and Low Countries may bring some thunderstorms across the far SE this evening before the cold front clears.

… IRELAND / N. IRELAND …

Scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will affect much of northern and western Ireland along with western N. Ireland through the afternoon and into the evening, thanks to low pressure close to the west and fairly steep lapse rates from surface heating beneath cold air aloft of upper trough overspreading here. Strong winds aloft may lower to the surface in stronger convective downdrafts to bring locally strong convective wind gusts of 40-50mph. Also, strong 0-1km low level shear could support funnel clouds or even one or two brief tornadoes with any stronger updrafts that rotate thanks to the LL shear.

… SE ENGLAND & E ANGLIA …

Some uncertain how much instability will develop later on the NW edge of warm/moist high theta-w plume spreading N over France / Low Countries and overspreading SE UK. A shortwave trough moving NE triggered some elevated storms across E Kent this morning and there’s potential that another shortwave moving NE out of France along with a general increase in large scale ascent of approaching upper trough to the west will trigger further heavy showers and elevated thunderstorms to push NE across SE England and East Anglia this evening and into the first part of the night, before the cold front clears east and clears the unstable plume with it. As often the case, lightning activity maybe confined to Kent and coastal East Anglia, but could affect areas further west. Any thunderstorms could produce frequent C-G lightning,  high rainfall totals locally – leading to localised flooding, along with strong gusty winds.

… SW ENGLAND / WALES …

Heavy showers, perhaps with isolated lightning, look to become more widespread across the SW of Britain this evening and overnight, as upper trough overspreads aloft – steepening lapse rates above mild/moist flow at the surface.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Forecast on Netweather: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

 

[LightningLover]

Great insight into this evening's potential as always @Nick F!

[Eagle Eye]

Storms really beggining to fire up where the Plume is, bodes well for later. 

[LightningLover]

Going by various precipitation predictions, it looks as if (for my area at least) there will be two distinct rounds of activity to keep an eye on;

-18:00-20:00 elevated thunderstorms pushing N/NE from Northern France, with some activity developing just ahead of it and maybe coming onshore with a bit of luck?

-00:00-02:00 A large multicellular looking feature (quite possibly an MCS) Developing over France/Belgium, with the associated rain shield and maybe even some of the thunderstorm activity itself grazing the channel and Extreme eastern areas of Kent, before pushing into the Southern North sea.

All subject to a lot of change of course! Good luck to everyone.

Edited May 9, 2021 by LightningLover

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Going by various precipitation predictions, it looks as if (for my area at least) there will be two distinct rounds of activity to keep an eye on;

-18:00-20:00 elevated thunderstorms pushing N/NE from Northern France, with some activity developing just ahead of it and maybe coming onshore with a bit of luck?

-00:00-02:00 A large multicellular looking feature (quite possibly an MCS) Developing over France/Belgium, with the associated rain shield and maybe even some of the thunderstorm activity itself grazing the channel and Extreme eastern areas of Kent, before pushing into the Southern North sea.

All subject to a lot of change of course! Good luck to everyone.

Well, I fancy what Spain's having, hopefully the lightning makes it inland, still its early May and this came almost out of nowhere and so have previous big Storms so who knows. 

[ChannelThunder]

Into radar-watching territory. Lots of drizzle coming up from France  ...and one little storm in there trying its best to get going.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Storms really beggining to fire up where the Plume is, bodes well for later. 

Anywhere east of a line from the Solent to the Wash, with the risk increasing the further SE you go. Depends on how much of an incursion NW we can squeeze some more humid air.

There’s pockets of occasional Altocumulus scuttling N-NE here with the odd patch of T-Cu along with it. 

[Allseasons-Si]

East side of Rennes,France is where the SE need to look,there is some pokey cells just firing off there now.

[LightningLover]

Beefy hail core there!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like the nearest one will probably end up clipping Kent at best. We would have needed these to have fired on the Brest peninsula for any widespread hits, given the big Westerly influence in the upper steering winds for this setup. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hope my former post may be wrong. The lighting activity seems to be heading more of a NE’ly direction as to what the storms look on radar. Wondering what will come of these showers about to hit Hampshire. 

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hope my former post may be wrong. The lighting activity seems to be heading more of a NE’ly direction as to what the storms look on radar. Wondering what will come of these showers about to hit Hampshire. 

they will start going east due to the cold front and trough moving east

[LightningLover]

On the seafront for the second time today, crossing my fingers!!

[magicpatch]

Any chance of anything down here in South London/Surrey borders? The ones developing near Portsmouth seem to be too far West for here and the others all seem to be drifting East! 

Edited May 9, 2021 by magicpatch
typo

[LightningLover]

Nice distant rumble just then

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Nice distant rumble just then

Not surprised, it's sneaked up on us.

Round One and Round Two in one screenshot, Phone's charging maybe time to get my Camera Out Again. I'm getting slightly excited now as shown by my use of Capitals.

Edited May 9, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice to see a plume so early on in the year,it's quite warm out even up here,...hey up,..a cell has just popped up west of Hull,just goes to show that in this setup anything can happen under this unstable air.

[ChannelThunder]

Okay that radar has me convinced it's worth a drive to Kent. Quick dinner down, now time to leave!

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Okay that radar has me convinced it's worth a drive to Kent. Quick dinner down, now time to leave!

Go, go, go, it's getting dark again.

[Dami]

so nice to be checking the lightning maps again!

woo hoo storm season is in the room.