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Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season 2021


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Slow sea ice animation for the last week. Steady losses across most peripheral seas, but mixed in the Barents Sea where northerly winds persist. Ice-free stretches appearing and disappearing around the Arctic Ocean edges, indicating quite a mobile central pack.

    Anim_May1to8LQ.thumb.gif.e71ba62f1cad623cdfd7d6ce49fc157f.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest slow sea ice animation for the week. Slow losses in the peripheral seas, but a surprising acceleration of ice loss in the Arctic ocean itself. Open water has appeared in many regions and the ice between Franz Joseph Land and the N. Pole looks particularly weak.

    AnimMay8to15LQ.thumb.gif.82cb6cdcf626278ac89792577dfbe10f.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    9 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest slow sea ice animation for the week. Slow losses in the peripheral seas, but a surprising acceleration of ice loss in the Arctic ocean itself. Open water has appeared in many regions and the ice between Franz Joseph Land and the N. Pole looks particularly weak.

    AnimMay8to15LQ.thumb.gif.82cb6cdcf626278ac89792577dfbe10f.gif

    May look weak but does not mean it is. Some large floes in there and given its location, its unlikely there will be much melt there anytime soon. Will be interesting how it develops in the coming weeks especially if we get a southerly wind. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
    11 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    May look weak but does not mean it is. Some large floes in there and given its location, its unlikely there will be much melt there anytime soon. Will be interesting how it develops in the coming weeks especially if we get a southerly wind. 

    Yep, large floes, but given that they're separated it suggests that the leads are not refreezing and with near 24 hour daylight, the risk of warming up the sea increases. Plus, the current forecast has some big temperature anomalies in the region, and maxima nearing 0C in the next 5 days, and climbing above by next weekend. With the lower concentration and high mobility, I think a big storm in the region could do some long lasting damage.

    So, the floes may be somewhat thick, but the pack is in a more weakened and vulnerable state than usual for the time of year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    9 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Yep, large floes, but given that they're separated it suggests that the leads are not refreezing and with near 24 hour daylight, the risk of warming up the sea increases. Plus, the current forecast has some big temperature anomalies in the region, and maxima nearing 0C in the next 5 days, and climbing above by next weekend. With the lower concentration and high mobility, I think a big storm in the region could do some long lasting damage.

    So, the floes may be somewhat thick, but the pack is in a more weakened and vulnerable state than usual for the time of year.

    But in a few weeks time, the pack could join back together in that part of the basin given the impression its more solid ice again. It's one to watch and its something you expect too see in the Beaufort sea rather than the CAB at this time of year so it's going to be interesting how it plays out. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest PIOMAS data.
    2021 is 7th lowest on record, well above 2017 & nestled close to several other years. It's also: 8,600 km³ below 1980s, 7,000 km³ below 1990s, 3,600 km³ below 2000s and 100 km³ above the 2010s average

    AllArctic.thumb.png.bd4bdd9fd6f550d843befbd87dd62417.png image.thumb.png.7cc1a750351c184296d99bc0f9c97e54.png

    Regionally, volume is dropping relative to other years along the Russian Arctic coast, from 13th to 10th lowest since the end of April. For the central Arctic, 2021 has gone from 4th to 5th lowest, and still appears to be increasing

    SiberiaVol.thumb.png.3d34bb3b242ae7900e975899305d7fea.png image.thumb.png.444e642a9abdab03064fe811077e141e.png

    CABVol.thumb.png.3b3f67ec34a5f60661821bee44c699a4.png image.thumb.png.de730f705146040195a1bfa916195311.png

    RegVol.thumb.png.929275bc2a2573a98da6be7c239f02eb.png image.thumb.png.30949cb19c54fdb0bc4a385fc8419c7d.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Well the basin is experiencing its first significant warmth of the melt season, main target the ESS and to a lesser extent the Laptev sea. I think we are all ready seeing some signs of the warmth with slight hints of blue appearing on the fast ice, suspect this will become more obvious in the next few days as the high pressure cell sits in that area in the coming days.  

    The Beaufort is cooler and the strong winds from Alaska which has been causing open water to increase have now stopped and is switching direction so the expansion of the open water should stop for now and ice may even drift back towards Alaska. 

    Whilst the warmth is not going to be the strongest we will see this summer no doubt, it is early and the lack of snowcover means the temperature  anaomolies are quite strong. Will be interesting how it all develops in the next few days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Recent years saw an early melt-out over the Eurasian side of the Arctic - I remember that last year saw record breaking warmth over that side.  Following a relatively cold winter and spring the ice north of Eurasia has been holding up somewhat more so far this season, but I can see the coming week reducing the chances of this situation persisting later in the season, with large temperature anomalies and southerlies pushing the ice towards the pole.

    image.thumb.png.4006c0e7800f6f98d80674e41fa99cd4.png

    I'm not actually expecting too much obvious damage in the next week or so but I expect that this week will make the ice more prone to melting out when we get warmer southerlies from Eurasia later in the melt season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I'm just hoping its going to be one of those situations that it's short term loss but perhaps long term gain regarding the current situation. Yes we are losing ice extent in the Laptev especially but if that ice is heading towards the direction of the pole, it's going to keep the ice compact and dispersion will be less likely. That said last year did see alot of weather that compacted the ice but there was rapid melting and SSTS sky rocketed also which no doubt played a role just how far that ice edge retreated so its got to be a balancing act also. Ironically with the models hinting at sort of a dipole pattern, it may help the ice(at least in the short term) across the Laptev but as per usual, it may help one region, but perhaps hinder in another area. Certainly interesting how much of a Laptev bite we will see again this year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    New laptop and stuff sorted now, so the weekly sea ice animations are back.
    M23_30AnimLQ.thumb.gif.828311212660ef379e74f891e10d2ef7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    2 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

    Major heat setting in once again over the crucial region of siberia.

     

    gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_10-day.png

    Rapid snowcover melt is also a factor why the anaomoly is so high. In fact if the snowcover did not melt so rapidly in that area, the current high pressure spell would probably have less of an influence than it seems to of already had. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Snow disappearing and ice rapidly turning blue in the East Siberian and Laptev seas

    SibAnimLQ.thumb.gif.3bb8b727d79eb6fa4784dce995419a5f.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    On 01/06/2021 at 00:25, Geordiesnow said:

    Rapid snowcover melt is also a factor why the anaomoly is so high. In fact if the snowcover did not melt so rapidly in that area, the current high pressure spell would probably have less of an influence than it seems to of already had. 

    I’m not sure what you mean there? Snow cover melt takes heat out of the atmosphere, so it has to be consequence of such high anomalies (warmth), not a cause. In  fact it makes them all the more impressive considering how much is being taken out to melt the snow.

    Weather patterns seem determined to erase as much of the strengths compared to last year as possible in the Asia-side Arctic seas. We now have a combination of somewhat vigorous cyclones and widely warmer than usual air, which seems strange for June. If I’m recalling right, cyclone-dominated periods have tended to be widely cooler than average this month of the year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    On 03/06/2021 at 22:40, Singularity said:

    I’m not sure what you mean there? Snow cover melt takes heat out of the atmosphere, so it has to be consequence of such high anomalies (warmth), not a cause. In  fact it makes them all the more impressive considering how much is being taken out to melt the snow.

    Weather patterns seem determined to erase as much of the strengths compared to last year as possible in the Asia-side Arctic seas. We now have a combination of somewhat vigorous cyclones and widely warmer than usual air, which seems strange for June. If I’m recalling right, cyclone-dominated periods have tended to be widely cooler than average this month of the year.

    Sorry for the late reply. What i was trying to explain is that if there was more snow cover on the landmass in the ESS vicinity than there was, I'm sure the warmth would not be as strong as it was therefore the anaomoly would not be as high either. There is little doubt temperatures in that area will reach higher values than the spell we just had but there is no doubt the warmth left its mark with heavy and widespread melt ponding on the fast ice. 

    At least the models are finally forecasting some slight respite for the ESS but indications are it could be the Beaufort sea turn for some warmth however this is in the medium term mainly. 

    As for the hear and now, all eyes on that low, if has finally strengthed and its in the vicinity of the pole and will loiter somewhat towards the Laptev before heading towards the Barants and weakening as it does so be interesting if it leaves signs of diversion of the ice pack. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest weekly animation. Mixed changes in the Barents Sea, but steady widespread losses along the ice edge elsewhere.

    M30J6AnimLQ.thumb.gif.65986042a125e99530bb3d3e5cfc0851.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Extent in the Laptev sea continues to go further into record territory, now 48,000km2 below the next lowest year.

    LaptevJ7.thumb.png.f65d827cf099bcc619bde01ac93ea026.png

    Conversely, a slow start to the melt season in the Canadian Archipelago, now 14th highest for the time of year.

    CAAJ7.thumb.png.e4d7e8d7b7b6823b3ec4d9148d94da25.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    The already record large open water area in the Laptev Sea has grown substantially yesterday and so far today. The record low extent values there should remain or even grow in response.

    Laptevanim.thumb.gif.3eb7b558e581d78dbae7da980e1c7bec.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    14 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The already record large open water area in the Laptev Sea has grown substantially yesterday and so far today. The record low extent values there should remain or even grow in response.

    Laptevanim.thumb.gif.3eb7b558e581d78dbae7da980e1c7bec.gif

    Didn't 2014 had a larger opening in this area? Looks slightly larger too me but its not surprising too see given the winds have constantly almost blown from the south. Even the respite coming up does not look like lasting all that long before more warmth coming in potentially. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
    7 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Didn't 2014 had a larger opening in this area? Looks slightly larger too me but its not surprising too see given the winds have constantly almost blown from the south. Even the respite coming up does not look like lasting all that long before more warmth coming in potentially. 

    2014 has a larger single continuous open patch, but 2021 has two large open areas that are bigger combined than 2014. This is reflected in the record low area and extent for the region.
    But yeah, looks like Kara is getting hit with heat this weekend, then the dipole pattern return early next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    On 06/06/2021 at 17:15, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Arctic sea ice thinning twice as fast as thought, study finds | Arctic | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/arctic-sea-ice-thinning-twice-as-fast-as-thought-study-finds

    "The new research used novel computer models..." 😷

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest slow sea ice animation. Losses clearly accelerating, as is expected at this time of year. More substantial open water forming in the Beaufort, CAA and Chukchi Sea. The Laptev open water continues to grow too, remaining at record levels.

    J6to13AnimLQ.thumb.gif.98d181e15a91ba21d9c6298f8e7764ac.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Temperatures are 20 degrees above average on the Siberian coastline around the Laptev sea, that's right a full on 20C above average!! Even more ice retreat is expected here and if an ice free pole was expected to happen then you would imagine coming from the Laptev sea is the best bet. 

    Don't think we will see an ice free pole this year mind, did not see one last year despite all the heat and warmth in a similar area and the pole has been cold and cloudy but the reality is, most of the good work winter has done to help the ice on the Siberian side is quickly getting undone with record breaking melt in the Laptev sea and the fast ice actually not only turning blue, but black! I was hoping this year will be like 2018 but rapid snowcover melt and early heat has put paid to that. 

    That said, I can't wait too see how it all unfolds during the rest of the season. The weather after this major heat blast for some areas looks pretty favourable for the ice but getting much cold air to hit the Laptev and ESS seems a tough ask although temperatures should drop a little bit at least. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest slow sea ice animation. Russian side clearly taking the lead, while concentration drops around the CAA suggests melt ponds are forming there.

    AnimationJ13to20LQ.thumb.gif.ca65eb5e731e6f741ebe1c0b7bdbcb85.gif

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