Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season 2021

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yes but June was very hot for both the ESS and Laptev Seas, strong southerly winds were a frequent occurance during June. They did back off during July but temperatures still above average here because of the open water and warm sea surface temperatures. If we have seen weather not conclusive for such open water during June, I may buy into the argument a bit more. There is a reason why there is alot more extensive ice in the Beaufort currently and its because if one area is losing ice at a fast rate, another area is probably cooler with a slower rate of melt. 

If we seen frequent dipoles(the classic ones), there be alot more ice in the Laptev/ESS and much less ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi than there currently is. 

I also don't think Atlantification is affecting the Kara sea as such, the Kara is changing because of climate change which is resulting in earlier melt and later refreeze which means thinner ice and warmer SSTS during spring and summer which means more ice melts away. 

As for current conditions, we are running at 9th lowest with a bit of a slowdown mainly due to slack weather patterns, the outlook looks fairly cool for the most part apart from the Laptev which will remain above average until it refreezes. The ice is getting more diffused in the Chukchi and to a lesser extent the Beaufort sea and a fairly deep(although not extremely) low hovering around these areas for the next few days. Will be interesting what impacts that will have on the ice in these areas, it was this time last year the ice just collapsed in the Chukchi sea, I think the ice will be a bit more resilient this year if albeit looking ever more diffused. One of those where the finishing line is near but not close enough and given the lack of Siberian ice and the warm SSTS in the Laptev, Im still getting a feeling we may finish under 4 million in extent still but unlike last year, confidence is not high in that regard. 

Thanks for the end of season review Geordie.

I am now getting poised ready for the end of melt season, so that I can pick up on the refreeze.

It seems to have been quite a different melt season this year in many respects.  

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

On 13/08/2021 at 18:46, Geordiesnow said:

Yes but June was very hot for both the ESS and Laptev Seas, strong southerly winds were a frequent occurance during June. They did back off during July but temperatures still above average here because of the open water and warm sea surface temperatures. If we have seen weather not conclusive for such open water during June, I may buy into the argument a bit more. There is a reason why there is alot more extensive ice in the Beaufort currently and its because if one area is losing ice at a fast rate, another area is probably cooler with a slower rate of melt. 

If we seen frequent dipoles(the classic ones), there be alot more ice in the Laptev/ESS and much less ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi than there currently is. 

I also don't think Atlantification is affecting the Kara sea as such, the Kara is changing because of climate change which is resulting in earlier melt and later refreeze which means thinner ice and warmer SSTS during spring and summer which means more ice melts away. 

As for current conditions, we are running at 9th lowest with a bit of a slowdown mainly due to slack weather patterns, the outlook looks fairly cool for the most part apart from the Laptev which will remain above average until it refreezes. The ice is getting more diffused in the Chukchi and to a lesser extent the Beaufort sea and a fairly deep(although not extremely) low hovering around these areas for the next few days. Will be interesting what impacts that will have on the ice in these areas, it was this time last year the ice just collapsed in the Chukchi sea, I think the ice will be a bit more resilient this year if albeit looking ever more diffused. One of those where the finishing line is near but not close enough and given the lack of Siberian ice and the warm SSTS in the Laptev, Im still getting a feeling we may finish under 4 million in extent still but unlike last year, confidence is not high in that regard. 

June was 7th warmest since 2000, July was 15th warmest for the Laptev region (925hPa from ncep reanalysis).
 

Winds were more southerly in June, but not exceptionally so, weaker than last year and 2019.

Most research supports Atlantification as an ongoing process in the Kara sea (and Barents) with the influence in other regions now a subject of study. 2 recent examples
Evidence for an Increasing Role of Ocean Heat in Arctic Winter Sea Ice Growth
(Kara and Barents) "Here an increase in ocean heat flux since the beginning of the millennium reduces ΔVthd and overpowers the ice growth feedback consistent with advancing Atlantification"

Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean
(in reference to Atlantic Water intrusions towards the surface of the Eurasian Basin, which includes the Laptev Sea) "Time series measurements from a 15-yr mooring record in the eastern EB of the Arctic Ocean demonstrate that the previously identified weakening of stratification over the halocline, which isolates intermediate depth AW from the sea surface, over the period 2003–15 (e.g., Polyakov et al. 2017, 2018), has continued at an increasing rate in more recent years (2015–18). In consequence, oceanic heat fluxes for the winters of 2016–18 are estimated to be greater than 10 W m−2. These fluxes are substantially larger than the previously reported winter estimates for the region for 2007/08 of 3–4 W m−2 (Lenn et al. 2009; Polyakov et al. 2019) and comparable to the estimates for the winters of 2013–15 (Polyakov et al. 2017), implying a significant enhancement of the role of oceanic heat in this region in recent years."
 

[knocker]

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd be very surprised if Atlantification wasn't a significant issue in the west of the Kara Sea.  Vize Island in particular has been a hotspot for increased warmth since around 2005, where the mean annual temperature has jumped by roughly 4C, and the years 2012 and 2016 were about 8C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.   The sea ice has often been slow to form in this region during October-December, contributing to some particularly warm Novembers.  I'm not sure about the east of the Kara Sea or the Laptev Sea but certainly my examinations of the Vize Island warming hotspot point to increased Atlantification.

[ANYWEATHER]

July saw below average Artic temperatures throughout,  both Artic and Antartica sea ice well above normal and the Greenland surface mass balance is well above normal☺

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

July saw below average Artic temperatures throughout,  both Artic and Antartica sea ice well above normal and the Greenland surface mass balance is well above normal☺

You should have gone to Specsavers?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Wasn't sure where was best to post this. 

 

[knocker]

 

[Gowon]

Rain falls at summit of Greenland's ice sheet for first time in recorded history

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

An Arctic research station, which is located 10,551ft above sea level, saw above-freezing temperatures for more than nine hours for the third time in less than a decade.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

Rain falls at summit of Greenland's ice sheet for first time in recorded history

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

An Arctic research station, which is located 10,551ft above sea level, saw above-freezing temperatures for more than nine hours for the third time in less than a decade.

 

Remember the Climate change deniers, back in 2012 (?) when we saw the first 'melt' at summit telling us that it was a 160 yr 'cycle' of melt over the summit?....this was now the number 3 instance of the last decade......I wonder what they would say today?

[Gowon]

26 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Remember the Climate change deniers, back in 2012 (?) when we saw the first 'melt' at summit telling us that it was a 160 yr 'cycle' of melt over the summit?....this was now the number 3 instance of the last decade......I wonder what they would say today?

I was a believer in climate change but was a sceptic of AGW back then, but I've seen enough since to change my stance 

[ANYWEATHER]

Some graphs to show the extent of Antarctic and Artic ice now and in previous years. Interesting that when the IPCC was formed back in 1990 Artic sea ice was less than it is now! Also worth noting that the Artic sea ice is much thicker now than it was back in 2008......

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 21/08/2021 at 12:09, Gray-Wolf said:

Remember the Climate change deniers, back in 2012 (?) when we saw the first 'melt' at summit telling us that it was a 160 yr 'cycle' of melt over the summit?....this was now the number 3 instance of the last decade......I wonder what they would say today?

Just weather.

I accept it is unusual, but it is to be expected if the climate is warming.

See KW's post above for the explanation, as a depression over NE Canada brought a 'plume' up from the South.

No mention that on the other side of that low that very early snows occured in Northern Canada, and are still present?.

Temperatures above zero (the main cause of the rain) was recorded twice last century, so not sure about your claimed 180 yr cycle?.

By the way the temperature is now back down to its normal -30C minimum, with the above average temperature being a 2 day exception.

MIA

[knocker]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm getting errors trying to add the animation here, so I'll post the tweet with it instead.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

So the hysteria from the likes of CNN etc saying it's the first time it's rained at the summit of Greenland, .......

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So the hysteria from the likes of CNN etc saying it's the first time it's rained at the summit of Greenland, .......

Have you got a source for that?

Also the assumption that there was less sea ice in the Arctic in 1990 then compared to now is wrong. The graph you have shown here is just ice melt for the week of August 13th-20th. Antarctic Sea Ice has been more variable though this has a completely different setup to the Arctic.

Edited August 23, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Geordiesnow]

Compared to this time last year, it's certainly colder now than it was then and the extent slow down is certainly reflecting that. Anyone think we could finish above 2013/14? Looks a little bit of a long shot admittedly but it's definately a possibility. One other thing the cold is doing is going to start cooling those SSTS in the Laptev, need to really as they are well above average. 

I think realistically extent finishing around the 2008/17/18 mark which is what I kinda predicted at the start of the melt season(although I expected the Siberian ice to be more dominant). Before the more stormy weather in July, there was a moment where things looked quite precarious indeed and I really thought a record low was possible and lets not forget we were at record lows briefly this summer so let's not let the current extent fool us too much. 

How much of that dispersion will hang on is quite exciting to see. I'm sure some of it is multi year ice also so would be useful if it does make it to the end. 

 

[stewfox]

So pleasing to see. Do we have record global sea ice now ? must be close ?

[Derecho]

31 minutes ago, stewfox said:

So pleasing to see. Do we have record global sea ice now ? must be close ?

Yeah nice to get a reprieve but we need to get the multi-year sea ice building which will be difficult.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[stewfox]

43 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah nice to get a reprieve but we need to get the multi-year sea ice building which will be difficult.

I meant extent , cant find a link and cant edit post

[Thundery wintry showers]

Conditions look set to continue quiet over the Arctic over the next week or so, with many parts of the region continuing to experience below-average temperatures at 850hPa.

Greenland looks set to be warmer than average at times, but not warm enough to trigger substantial melting spikes like the two we saw recently.

It will be interesting to see if the relatively cool conditions persist into the autumn and result in a relatively quick refreeze this year.  In many recent years, even after fairly cool summers, above-average temperatures have resumed in September and October and the refreeze has been slow.

Overall global sea ice extent is unlikely to be above that of 2014, which saw record high extent in the Antarctic and a relatively modest negative anomaly in the Arctic.  Still, with the Antarctic now running well above average, it's probably the highest since 2014.

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[shuggee]

Just popped into the thread to see where we are at - so thought I would leave this here. An interesting year against the trend:

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

 

[knocker]

 

[The Future]

I guess volume is the truest measure of how much sea ice there is.  A small increase this year.