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Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season 2021


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Where you get those TWS? The only historic charts I get is from wetterzentrale but not a northern hemisphere point of view. If you got a link that will be great. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=avn&var=1&jaar=2021&maand=4&dag=16&uur=0000&h=0&nmaps=24

Hope this works.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

This weeks slow sea ice animation Losses across the Pacific side of the Arctic almost balanced out by a large wind-driven increase east of Svalbard. We can see the first signs of melt in Hudson Bay also & large leads opening along the Siberian side - sign of a very mobile central pack.

AnimA10to17LQ.thumb.gif.34c391732b1898bb4e15483e30210d74.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest PIOMAS volume is out to mid April. 2021 is 3rd lowest on record, above 2017 & 2018. It's also:
8,400 km³ below 1980s
7,000 km³ below 1990s
3,700 km³ below 2000s
500 km³ below the 2010s average

Volume dropping during the first half of April for only the 3rd time, and it was the largest drop on record.

PIOMAS_ALL.thumb.png.fcd4f5329781b87eab81253ae2d3841d.png

Regionally, volume is not doing as well along the Russian Arctic coastline, from 5th most volume since 2000 at the end of March to 9th most now. For the central Arctic, 2021 has gone from 2nd to 3rd lowest (although it's basically a tie with 2013 for 2nd lowest)

Siberian_MIDA.thumb.png.85ea66497ef679be2b8c9aaec1695f81.png CAB_MIDA.thumb.png.518ec023058dadc1e23bc4ec27e711af.png

And here's the regional comparison with 2020 and the 3 lowest volume years on record.

ALL_MIDA.thumb.png.98d9af888d827907e64cbc0c4eab083d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A large crack stretching from the Bering Strait to the Laptev Sea, opening and closing in recent days. Sections of the central pack showing transient low concentration areas as dense cloud &/or temporary rainfall starts to occur.

CrackAnim.thumb.gif.74f624d3c4178f41b0173de49bd6b7ec.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest weekly animation

Apr24AnimLQ.thumb.gif.42d564e40a6d612cddad29eac09a7f4f.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Fairly uneventful weather on the horizon although temperatures do still look somewhat above average for the time of year despite the fairly slackish looking synotopics.

Could be some ice lifting away from the coasts in the Beaufort sea mind, thankfully the Beaufort high does not look all that strong but its one to watch for sure. 

The ECM in particular wants to develop high pressure over the pole with troughing on the outer edges of the high, perhaps a favourable set up due to lack of any deep lows but no ridges either. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Recent changes in different sectors of the Arctic. Small losses generally balancing out the big gains in the Barents region

GridAnimLQ.thumb.gif.b72b3ebf0852e3a089ecf2ec7b607668.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I take it that the Barrentsz gains are losses in the making BFTV?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
32 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I take it that the Barrentsz gains are losses in the making BFTV?

Yep, short term extent gain, long term volume pain!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I know it's very early doors but I'm already not liking what I'm seeing in the Arctic?

We've all seen the animations of seasonal ice loss and just how much Fram takes out of the basin

This year we seem to be shipping 'good ice' at quite a rate so stretching the ice from the feed areas (CAB/N.Greenland?)

Will this lead us to a more vulnerable pack in these 'feed regions' allowing more open water, earlier on in the summer, across the areas that normally hold onto our best ice over summer?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
12 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yep, short term extent gain, long term volume pain!

But ice mostly always leave the Arctic basin via fram, the currents usually sends the ice that way and depending on how strong the winds are depends how quick that process is. 

No denying the drift has been towards the Barants hence ice starting to compact somewhat against Svalbard and increase the extent in the Barants sea but I can't see much volume being loss in the CAB because of it. Its not like the Beaufort sea for example where an area can get ice drifted away and all that follows is open water, any ice heading towards the Barants sea will be replaced by more 2 metre ice from elsewhere in the basin. 

I'm the opposite view of Grey Wolf at this stage, the ice pack is in far better shape than this time last year especially over the Siberian seas where it chalk and cheese really. The weather over the summer still have to remain favourable mind and I'm still wary a stormy summer could cause alot of damage to the ice pack itself like in 2016. Its been as good of a winter as it can be for volume growth and March and the start of April has been quite cold. We see what the next month or so brings and how fast snow cover retreat away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

But ice mostly always leave the Arctic basin via fram, the currents usually sends the ice that way and depending on how strong the winds are depends how quick that process is. 

No denying the drift has been towards the Barants hence ice starting to compact somewhat against Svalbard and increase the extent in the Barants sea but I can't see much volume being loss in the CAB because of it. Its not like the Beaufort sea for example where an area can get ice drifted away and all that follows is open water, any ice heading towards the Barants sea will be replaced by more 2 metre ice from elsewhere in the basin. 

I'm the opposite view of Grey Wolf at this stage, the ice pack is in far better shape than this time last year especially over the Siberian seas where it chalk and cheese really. The weather over the summer still have to remain favourable mind and I'm still wary a stormy summer could cause alot of damage to the ice pack itself like in 2016. Its been as good of a winter as it can be for volume growth and March and the start of April has been quite cold. We see what the next month or so brings and how fast snow cover retreat away. 

The export through Fram is also quite high at the moment.
I'm not sure I'm following your argument. The wind driven ice loss from the central pack towards the Atlantic sector is still driving thick ice into a region where it will inevitably melt. This has to have a strong effect on volume loss, especially as it's still not warm enough for substantial melt across most of the Arctic ocean at the moment. Heat from the continents will matter more as we move into the 2nd half of May. Basically, exporting thick ice into warmer areas is the best way to lose volume at this time of year, imo.

Also, there is a conflict between the observational data, CS2/SMOS, vs the modelled, PIOMAS.  The observational data suggests an opposite pattern over much of the Siberian coastline to PIOMAS, and has 2021 as easily the lowest volume on record for the time of year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Agreed BFTV!

Back in the late noughties I began noting the seasonal stress on the ice at Spring tides, I was assured it was a normal occurrence.

This 'denaturing' of the pack , early doors, means that the ice 'gluing' the floes back together is very weak and fails quickly once melt pressures arise.

We then get mechanical weathering of the floes as the crash into one another chipping off edges/further shattering floes

Small floes move much faster than large floes

This year it is not the 1st year ice giving way but the old ice to the N of Greenland and the CAB directly (our best ice?)

I do not like it Sam I am, I do not like this drift and scram!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The export through Fram is also quite high at the moment.
I'm not sure I'm following your argument. The wind driven ice loss from the central pack towards the Atlantic sector is still driving thick ice into a region where it will inevitably melt. This has to have a strong effect on volume loss, especially as it's still not warm enough for substantial melt across most of the Arctic ocean at the moment. Heat from the continents will matter more as we move into the 2nd half of May. Basically, exporting thick ice into warmer areas is the best way to lose volume at this time of year, imo.

Also, there is a conflict between the observational data, CS2/SMOS, vs the modelled, PIOMAS.  The observational data suggests an opposite pattern over much of the Siberian coastline to PIOMAS, and has 2021 as easily the lowest volume on record for the time of year.

 

Ice thickness in general across the basin is around 2 to 3 metres so what's get headed down south will be replaced by ice of roughly the same thickness. 

Fram export happens most of the time, its more rare to get ice heading northwards towards the pole. I totally get the argument that a big ice spread and a sharp flattening out of extent in July/August could be a bad thing as the ice is more thinner by then and that's when dispersion could come into play but a week or two of drift of the ice in April is not likely to play a significant role of what's to come imo. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

We've been treated to what 'average seasons' now leave the pack like come Sept but what of the 'rogue' years like 07' /12'?

I worry that most years we are only 3 or 4 weeks away from melt out by the time refreeze begins. Pump in that energy over a freak year and the ice will just go (probably in late Aug?)

Since 2012 the continued degradation of Arctic ice has not halted. The floes are small and faster to form, the percentage of ice that is 1st year ice continues to increase (weakest ice) whilst older ice fails. We lost the last 'paleo cryogenic' ice in 2010 so how much 10 year old ice now sits in the basin?, 9 year old ice?, 5 year old ice even???

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
52 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

We've been treated to what 'average seasons' now leave the pack like come Sept but what of the 'rogue' years like 07' /12'?

I worry that most years we are only 3 or 4 weeks away from melt out by the time refreeze begins. Pump in that energy over a freak year and the ice will just go (probably in late Aug?)

Since 2012 the continued degradation of Arctic ice has not halted. The floes are small and faster to form, the percentage of ice that is 1st year ice continues to increase (weakest ice) whilst older ice fails. We lost the last 'paleo cryogenic' ice in 2010 so how much 10 year old ice now sits in the basin?, 9 year old ice?, 5 year old ice even???

I thought 2020 was a very good test of how an ice pack these days would react to a warm summer and we seen the results. Not record low in September but we did see record lows during most of the summer and by a fair distance also. If I remember, August was alot calmer mind and maybe that prevented the record lows but SSTS was very high in the Laptev sea and any winds coming from that direction was just nibbling and retreating the ice edge further northwards towards 85degrees latitude. 

Yet despite the record thin ice cover in the Siberian seas, Siberian heat and the rapid melt in the ESS and Laptev seas, we still has not seen an ice free north pole so I think a BOE is some way off despite your concerns GW. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest weekly animation

M1AnimationLQ.thumb.gif.f6e84afb77e212a6ba94ca1d938e503b.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The Hudon and Baffin Bay area has taken a hit over the last week. Persistent easterlies/south easterlies from the -ve NAO eating into the ice quite quickly.

HudS_AnimMod.thumb.gif.b7dd121976a1c637d247ceee0e2a37ca.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Baffin Bay ice has certainly in the last few years been struggling a bit, I'm guessing part of that is perhaps a lack of PV in this area during the wintertime but maybe there is also other factors in this? 

Weather wise across the basin, still fairly quiet in the short to medium term, perhaps hints of a deep low with some warmth coming up via the Kara sea in the medium to longer term but subject to change of course. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Forgot to add the PIOMAS data.

2021 is 6th lowest on record, well above 2017 & slightly above 2011,16, 18 & 19.It's also:
8,400 km³ below 1980s
6,900 km³ below 1990s
3,500 km³ below 2000s
200 km³ below the 2010s average

VolAllEMAY.thumb.jpg.85f10a180caddc6d68ce01e516801d05.jpg

Regionally, volume is holding steady along the Russian Arctic coastline, from 9th most volume since 2000 in mid April to 10th most now.
For the central Arctic, 2021 has gone from 3rd to 4th lowest (but a near tie for 3rd lowest with 2010 and 2018)

SiberianEMAY.thumb.jpg.d2111ad972cfd4a7ead69c4cad0884a6.jpg CABEMAY.thumb.jpg.bc50a5cac00232a16d5dd8eb87461d51.jpg

Here's a comparison between this year, last year and the 3 other lowest volume years across all Arctic regions in Mid April.

PIO_REG_EMAY.thumb.jpg.9a0c4ad5e204345bbfaf2f5ba7c93857.jpg

Of final note, this is in slight contrast to the CryoSat2/SMOS dataset, which still has 2021 as the lowest volume on record

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Thanks for the above BFTV.

Could I ask a favour?

Could you change to a different background? 

I suffer from a slight colour blindness problem, and I find it quite difficult (impossible?) to see the individual years.

I still think that white is the easiest to sort out.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
11 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks for the above BFTV.

Could I ask a favour?

Could you change to a different background? 

I suffer from a slight colour blindness problem, and I find it quite difficult (impossible?) to see the individual years.

I still think that white is the easiest to sort out.

MIA

It's tricky getting the right combination to suit all types of colour blindness, so I'm glad to take any feedback to improve the graphs/images.
I'll try post up an altered version of them later today if I get the time. If not then during the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

BFTV - I looked at your twitter page earlier and saw your tweet saying this winter was the 10th warmest on record(statistically effectively tied 5th with other years) but I noticed you did it from October to April. 

Given that recent October's tend to have alot of open water which releases heat, I'll be interested too see if the stats alter much if you did it from November to April instead? 

My impression of the winter going from alot of memory admittedly was largely high pressure dominated with the Pacific side of the basin being marginally colder than average along with the Kara sea in the 2nd half of winter when it actually finally fully refreezed. Barants and upto the pole area tended to be more average to above average at times. 

On the volume debate, my theory remains cryostat is underplaying volume a little bit due to perhaps less snow cover on the ice because of a lack of winter storms. Basically a total opposite of the 16/17 winter. 

Back to the hear and now, looks like the quiet weather will end in a few days as a modest low pressure system makes it way up from the lower latitudes, may have some local affects in the Kara sea and ice pulling away from the islands and landmasses but unlikely to have much impact in terms of extent as of yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

@Geordiesnow I had a look at November to April period, and it's a more clear 12th warmest, and just a little warmer than last year.

0.5C warmer than the 91-20 average, 1.9C warmer than 1971-00 and 2.2C warmer than 51-70

image.thumb.png.9a6a69faf1e2c1449309c5402f596c1e.png

@Midlands Ice Age how are these?

image.thumb.png.120a2236d330fda37365427af58dd0d9.png

image.thumb.png.fd0fcaaf33852ee09c6dff9b3a19222b.pngimage.thumb.png.d0483d0b3f96ca234cd95e533a54e382.png  

image.thumb.png.b95608d8991a5177fbfe436eaab024b1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

@Geordiesnow I had a look at November to April period, and it's a more clear 12th warmest, and just a little warmer than last year.

0.5C warmer than the 91-20 average, 1.9C warmer than 1971-00 and 2.2C warmer than 51-70

image.thumb.png.9a6a69faf1e2c1449309c5402f596c1e.png

@Midlands Ice Age how are these?

image.thumb.png.120a2236d330fda37365427af58dd0d9.png

image.thumb.png.fd0fcaaf33852ee09c6dff9b3a19222b.pngimage.thumb.png.d0483d0b3f96ca234cd95e533a54e382.png  

image.thumb.png.b95608d8991a5177fbfe436eaab024b1.png

 

As  far as I am concerned they look a lot better.

But having colour blindness, I realise that it may not be true for everyone.

Any other comments on the colour scheme?

MIA

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