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April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Who's waiting to see if the traditional end of month heatwave will materialise? Anyone who forecasted CET over 9C is out of the game - I can't see us averaging over 12C in the second half. 8C to 8.5C, though, is well within range.

    I am (only to save my CET guess)!  😉

    Whilst I see what you mean about those (myself included) forecasting a CET over 9C being out of the game, I think it's too early to call that at this stage, as we know how quickly the models can flip!  Remember, February looked primed to be a cold or very cold month but ended up somewhat milder than average.

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    I was saying that a cold and dry April is an unusual combination. So I checked the data, EWP data go back to 1766, so for the 59 Aprils in that period with mean CET 7.2 or lower, these are the only si

    Cold reload after reload to the 22nd now with just a slight hint of moderation then. I could imagine the running CET drifting down into the 5-6 range by this coming weekend and then staying there to t

    The single day drop in the CET maxima from yesterday to today could exceed 8C. In the record for April this has only been achieved 15 times. Just 2 days have dropped by more than 10C, they are the 1

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    3 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Who's waiting to see if the traditional end of month heatwave will materialise? 

    One peculiarity about April is that the highest maxima ever recorded during April are not to be found in the last few days  of the month. For instance 25.6C for March was recorded on the 29th in 1968, also 25.0C was recorded on that date in 1929 and 1965.

    The highest maximum ever recorded during  the last 5 days of April is only 26.1C (only 0.5C higher than the March all time record) on the 30th in 1952.   26.0C was recorded on 10th of April last year. 

     

     

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    One peculiarity about April is that the highest maxima ever recorded during April are not to be found in the last few days  of the month. For instance 25.6C for March was recorded on the 29th in 1968, also 25.0C was recorded on that date in 1929 and 1965.

    The highest maximum ever recorded during  the last 5 days of April is only 26.1C on the 30th in 1952.   26.0C was recorded on 10th of April last year. 

    Similar with the CET maxima. The record high maxima on the 3rd, 23.5C (in 1946), is the 4th highest for the whole month. It's also warmer than any of the record maxima in the last 9 days of April.

    I guess it highlights the potential for maxima in the mid 20s throughout April

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 5.5C -1.8C below average, Rainfall 2.8mm 5% of normal.

    Is this going to be yet another month with a cold first half followed by a warmer 2nd half?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    On 09/04/2021 at 21:22, LetItSnow! said:

    2012 is the last (7.2 vs 8.3)

    1990 before then (8.0 vs 8.3)

    then 1989 (6.6 vs 7.5)

    interestingly, 1991 almost did the same (both 7.9).  March, 1991 was a bizarre month in that it was well-above average in a general very cool period. IIRC the blocking that led to exceptional cold in February slid further south over Europe/Russia which ended up bringing a lot of very mild southerlies instead. Then the cold pattern resumed in April. 

     

     

    Thanks, yes not surprised 2012 did it after the exceptional March, April was a shocker!

    Vague recollections of March 91 being quite a good month, don't remember April 91 much. The cold theme broke in July, following a very chill June. The Sept 90 to June 91 period overall was quite cold in a generally very mild period that commenced Dec 88 lasting through until Summer 92... we then had a variable period until Summer 97 with intermittent cold and very mild periods, cold such as autumn 92, summer and autumn 93, winter 95-96, spring 96 and late 96. Warm such as summers 91, 94, 95, winters 92-93, 94-95, spring 97..

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.8c to the 10th

    0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.8c on the 7th & 10th

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    5.8c to the 10th

    0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.8c on the 7th & 10th

    Is this the low point? Probably tomorrow, then a slow rise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    22 hours ago, Don said:

    I am (only to save my CET guess)!  😉

    Whilst I see what you mean about those (myself included) forecasting a CET over 9C being out of the game, I think it's too early to call that at this stage, as we know how quickly the models can flip!  Remember, February looked primed to be a cold or very cold month but ended up somewhat milder than average.

    Can we all collectively say no chance?

    A86B3CEA-B503-4DE0-8680-DD4BE7624C82.thumb.gif.f5bb03ec586ca5ca8bab348652174e3a.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    Can we all collectively say no chance?

    A86B3CEA-B503-4DE0-8680-DD4BE7624C82.thumb.gif.f5bb03ec586ca5ca8bab348652174e3a.gif

    No, not yet.  It's only the 11th of the month.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, Don said:

    No, not yet.  It's only the 11th of the month.

    Yeah and well it’s looking nothing but average at very best to 20th. It would take some heatwave....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    54 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Yeah and well it’s looking nothing but average at very best to 20th. It would take some heatwave....

    We will have a better idea in 10 days time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Something unusual that is in play now would be a CET below all forecasts. Godber1 and daniel* have 6.8, no guarantee we make it even that high looking at recent GFS runs. This next week has slightly less direct cold feed but it hardly warms up at all, according to guidance, staying 2 to 3 below average. The CET daily maxima only go back to 1878 (unlike the mean daily which go back to 1772) -- I would think 1837 has some unknown record low maxima around now to go with the daily records. There are reconstructed maps now for 1837 and the pattern looks rather similar to this coming week. The month only warmed from 2.9 on 15th to a tied record low of 4.7 by the 30th.

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

     I would think 1837 has some unknown record low maxima around now to go with the daily records. There are reconstructed maps now for 1837 and the pattern looks rather similar to this coming week. The month only warmed from 2.9 on 15th to a tied record low of 4.7 by the 30th.

    These readings were recorded by Orlando Whistlecraft at Thwaite in Suffolk during April 1837

     Minima, maxima

    -1.1, 8.3

    -2.2, 8.9

    2.2, 7.8

    -0.6, 7.8

    0.6, 6.1

    -0.6, 7.2

    -1.7, 5.6

    0.6, 6.1

    -1.1, 3.9

    -2.2, 5.0

    -2.3, 7.8

    -2.8, 5.6

    0.6, 6.7

    1.1, 10.6

    -0.6, 10.6

    0.6, 6.7

    1.1, 5.6

    3.3, 8.9

    4.4, 10.6

    2.2, 13.9

    0.6, 11.7

    3.3, 11.7

    2.2, 7.8

    5.0, 14.4

    2.2, 15.0

    7.2, 15.6

    4.4, 14.4

    4.4, 16.1

    4.4, 13.9

    8.3, 14.4

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Puts into perspective how cold these nights have been up north the last 3 days all colder than prior 2013 record low in Shap, Cumbria.

    DCF52403-D9E5-4F44-9140-CBAF3DB55196.thumb.png.81d791b97b35175572b6534ee4d9f2c3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections

    AprilProj12.thumb.png.db7952483ed9e77405053aa3c7d5791b.png AprilProb12.thumb.png.70c6107972d4fbe9428ed1bb92871397.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 🔻to 1.6% (2 days ago 3.6%)
    Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%)
    Below average (<8.5C) is 🔺to 98.4% (2 days ago 96.4%)

    The period of the 12th to the 17th is forecast to average 4.5C, which is 3.2C below the 91-20 average.
    The absolute highest outcome now is 8.7C, so it's safe to rule out anything above 9C.

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.7c to the 11th

    1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.7c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall a measly 3.3mm 5.9% of the monthly rainfall. A good chance of it finishing in the top ten driest at the moment it's in second place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP only about 4 mm so far, 3 on the tracker to 10th, maybe another 1 mm Sunday, then GFS estimate only 7-10 mm for ten days and I don't see much in the outlook days 11-16, possibly 5-10 mm more ... gets us very close to end of the month with a mere 16-24 mm estimate range. 

    The 06z GFS run once again rather cold with a few more moderate days but signs of a late month cold spell too, might have trouble getting out of the 6-7 range if this run is anywhere near accurate. It may take most of this coming week to get past 6.0 and of course that's before the end of month revisions so this could be one of the colder Aprils of modern times unless there's a stronger reversal than the models have detected so far. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.6c to the 12th

    1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.0c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.6c on the 12th

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C -2.3C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

    Looks like the weather is getting ready to switch over to a mild 2nd half which it has been doing for a while now.

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