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April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I'm sure I've said this before, but the run of months starting with extreme looking charts just keeps going on and on.

    Is it, yet again, going to be a month that starts well below average, but ends with a spell well above average?

    Such extremes make getting the CET right very difficult and almost pot luck. What happened to bog standard average spells of weather?

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    I think the headline should include "exceptional frosty". We've had sunny and very dry Aprils in the past but rarely has an April has been this frosty.

    Excel April 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary)April 2021 Summary.pdf The cold April caught everyone out this month, in February we also had the weather models predicting a cold start to the month and

    My mean temp is currently running at 5.7C (-3.0C) to the 29th. In records back to 1980, the coldest was April 1986 with 5.8C. This month will beat that if tomorrow averages 7.1C or below. For ref

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Are there any notable 1st-10th/1st-15th values we should looking at challenging since the 80's based on current output.

    Check March thread, I posted some data there, didn't want to make too big an interruption here during forecast incubation season. Will get into it more after 2nd of April. IIRC over there I mentioned 3.8 C running mean to 8th being a benchmark and 4.4 first half both from 1986. A more similar case was 1968 which turned very cold after a mild end to March. (all details in March thread)

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    9.2C and 55mm please, Roger.ūüĎć

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmagnola, Turin, Piedmont, Italy, 240 m a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/cool all over the year. Winter favourite season
  • Location: Carmagnola, Turin, Piedmont, Italy, 240 m a.s.l.

    8.6 ¬įC and 50 mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    8.3c please

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Cooler and drier than average:

    7.8C and 51mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    7.9C and 70mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I'm loathe to put in a well below average forecast because no doubt there'll be an unexpected heatwave at the end of the month. But the charts are what they are. 

    Can I re-pitch this at 8.4C? Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    A change please to 8.5c - rainfall unchanged.

     

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    I'll go for 7.0c and 68mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    7.9C and 55mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    6.8c and 75mm please.

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    I now think that this month will start below to well below average temperature wise with a spell of unsettled Atlantic weather mid month but I reckon a really outrageously warm spell with air originating from. Africa will break records and give the UK first ever above 30.C temp in April before demelioration to a chilly but dry end. Snow, thunder, gales, sun and heat April 2021 will have the lot.

        Temp 10.6.C

        Precipitation 99mm....above average but in a few really heavy bands around 11th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    8.5C and 56mms please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    8.1c and 60mm for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Will April do a February and March on us? Once again some below average temps expected in the opening third, possibly significantly below average, so we could be looking at one of the coldest starts to April for a long time, I guess 2008 might be one to compare with, but this one looks colder if current charts verify..

    However, April is a significantly warming month, and is the most fickle of all the months, the hardest to predict. Lengthy locked in periods of below or above average temps are common, as the atlantic traditionally goes into its annual slumber. 

    2016 returned a chilly 7.5 degrees, so every chance could end up below that. However, given how last 2 months have panned out, I'll be cautious and go for a very near average 8.1 degrees, still quite cool, but expect a warmer spell at some point second half to cancel out somewhat the very cold conditions early in the month. Not expecting any such spell to be especially long lasting, but could be very notable, a bit like what happened in late Feb and late March, no doubt from a long drawn southerly. 

    I think we might need to look at some low CET date records for next week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Sorry, can I change to 8,6c please ūü•ī

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I have the table ready to post at midnight, for the benefit of late arrivals, these CET values near consensus (currently 8.3) are not yet taken by anybody __ 6.7 (and anything lower), 7.3, 7.4, 9.0, 9.6, 9.8, 10.0 to 10.5. We then have one at 10.6 and one at 14.0 ... the EWP consensus is 68.0 mm and there's quite a scatter there with about equal numbers going quite a bit higher and lower than that. 

    Table of the vortex of DOOM will follow at 0005h. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    I think the first half of this month will be noticeably cold and will struggle to recover from there.

    CET of 7.3C please with a much warmer second half lifting the overall mean somewhat but still below average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    On 30/03/2021 at 08:11, Daniel* said:

    I can see this month being appreciably below average 7.2C thanks and 90mm.

    Change to 6.8C thanks 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    Table of forecasts for April, 2021

    ____________________________________________________

    The number in brackets beside forecaster name is the order of entry (of last revision). Where the EWP forecast is not revised, and CET is revised,

    a decimal indicates the order that went out of the original sequence (e.g. 7.5 would mean 8th EWP forecast made). A higher EWP with decimal 

    would indicate the opposite, a revision of EWP forecast only, between two specified CET forecasts. 

    ... late forecasts accepted (order of entry L1-1 to ???) until the end of Saturday 3rd. Increasing late penalties apply in both contests.

     

    CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER _________________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER ______________________

    14.0 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted ( 1 ) _________________ 8.2 __ 57.0 __ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 9 ) ________

    10.6 __ 99.0__ shillitocettwo ( 48 ) ____________________ 8.2 __ 76.0 __ Stationary Front ( 19 ) ______________

     9.9 __110.0__ stewfox ( 29 ) __________________________ 8.2 __ 84.0 __ noname_weather ( 42 ) ____________

     9.7 __ 56.0 __ virtualsphere ( 6 ) ______________________ 8.1 __110.0__ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 7 ) _______

     9.5 __ 55.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 26 ) _________________8.1 __ 60.0 __ sundog ( 50 ) _______________________

     9.4 __ 67.0 __ Bobd29 ( 2 ) ____________________________8.1 __ ------ __ damianslaw ( 52 ) __________________

     9.3 __ 55.0 __ B87 ( 10 ) ______________________________ 8.1 __ 50.0 __ Blast From the Past ( L1-2 ) _________

     9.4 __ 85.0 __ pegg24 ( L1-1 ) _________________________ 8.0 __ 70.0 __ weather-history ( 21 ) _______________ 

     9.3 __ 68.0 __ JeffC ( 15 ) ______________________________8.0 __ 75.0 __ Leo97t ( 30 ) _______________________

     9.2 __ 44.0 __ weather26 ( 5 ) _________________________7.9 __122.6__ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 17 ) ___________

     9.2 __ ------ __ Typhoon John ( 16 ) ____________________ 7.9 __ 59.0 __ jonboy ( 25 ) ________________________

     9.2 __ 55.0 __ General Cluster ( 35 ) ___________________7.9 __ 64.5 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 33 ) _____________

     9.2 __ 61.0 __ J 10 ( 54 ) _______________________________ 7.9 __ 70.0 __ Relativistic ( 39 ) _______________

     9.1 __ 75.0 __ Don ( 59 ) ______________________________

     9.1 __ 55.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 31 ) ______________________ 7.9 __ 55.0 __ Mulzy ( 45 ) ____________________

     8.95__ 63.2 __ 1991-2020 average _____________________ 7.9 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 58 ) ________

     8.9 __ 60.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 4 ) ___________________7.8 __ 65.0 __ Frigid ( 3 ) ______________________

     8.9 __ 62.0 __ seaside60 ( 43 ) _________________________7.8 __ 77.0 __ Summer18 ( 14, 9.5 ) ___________

     8.8 __ 77.0 __ Neil N ( 12 ) ____________________________ 7.8 __ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 22 ) _______________

     8.8 __ 71.5 __ snowray ( 34 ) __________________________ 7.8 __ 51.0 __ Reef ( 38 ) _______________________

     8.7 __110.0__ SteveB ( 18 ) ____________________________7.8 __ 85.0 __ davehsug ( 51 ) _________________

     8.7 __ 73.0 __ February1978 ( 57 ) _____________________7.7 __ 77.0 __ Timmytour ( 8 ) _________________

     8.6 __ 63.0 __ The PIT ( 24 ) ___________________________ 7.5 __ 55.0 __ syed2878 ( 20 ) _________________ 

     8.6 __ 50.0 __ Federico ( 36 ) __________________________ 7.3 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 ( 55 ) __________

     8.6 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 53 ) __________________ 7.2 __ ------ __ Kentish Man ( L1-3 ) ___________

     8.5 __ 55.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 41, 12.5 ) _____________7.1 __ 36.1 __ Polar Gael ( 11 ) ________________

     8.5 __ 56.0 __ Norrance ( 49 ) __________________________7.0 __ 68.0 __ Walsall Wood Snow ( 44 ) ______ 

     8.5 __ 64.8 __ 1981-2010 average ______________________6.9 __ 48.2 __ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) _____________

     8.4 __ 68.0 __ stargazer ( 19 ) __________________________6.8 __ 75.0 __ Godber.1 ( 46 ) _________________

     8.4 __ 68.0 __ CheesepuffScott ( 23 ) ___________________6.8 __ 90.0 __ daniel* ( 56, 29.5 ) ___________________

     8.4 __ ------ __ Man Without Beard ( 40 ) ________________

     8.3 __100.0__ DR(S)NO ( 13 ) ___________________________

     8.3 __ 83.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 28 ) ___________________

     8.3 __ 75.0 __ Born From the Void ( 32 ) ________________

     8.3 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley ( 37 ) ________________________

     8.3 __ 68.0 __ consensus _______________________________________________

    ___________________________________________________________________________________

    59 on-time forecasts and three late by one day, 62 total, consensus is 8.3 C. 

    ========================= ** ========================= ** =========================

    EWP Forecasts in order

    200_LG ... 122.6_KW ... 110_IRem, Ste, stew ... 100_DR(S) ... 99_shil ... 90_dan ... 85_dave, pegg^ ... 84_non ... 83_EG

     77_tim, sum18, NN .. 76_SF .. 75_Leo,BFTV, godb, Don .. 73_Feb78 .. 71.5_snow ..  70_wx-h, rel .. 68_Jeff, star, CPS, WWS

     67_Bob ... 65_Frig ...  64.8_91-20 ... 64.5_MIA ... 63.2_81-10 ... 63_PIT ... 62_sea ... 61_J10 ... 60_SB, sun ... 59_jon

     57_we91 .. 56_virt, Norr .. 55_B87, feb91, syed, DRL, MrM, GC, mul .. 51_Reef .. 50_fed, BFTP^ .. 48.2_RJS .. 44_wx26 .. 36.1_PG

    ___________________________________________________

    consensus of 51 on-time forecasts and two marked ^ one day late, 53 total, is 68.0 mm. 

    ==========================================================

    note: Forecasts after this still on time to my next post 

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    adjusting count of EWP forecasts
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