April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

April CET statistics 

__ the most recent 40 values are shown in three groups (14,13,13) -- bold is warmest, underlined medium values, italics coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics.

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest Aprils (1798, 2020)

10.3 ... 7th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... 2014 (tied 9th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 13th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

 9.8 ... 2018

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.5 ... 1993

 9.4 ... 1999, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.1 ... average for 2001-2020, and 1995, 2019

 9.0 ... mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015  ... see below re 1991-2020.

 8.9 ... average for 1991-2020  ... 2005, 2017 ... the average is actually 8.95 and could go either way.

 8.8 ... 2010

 8.7 ... 1992

 8.6 ... 1982, 2006

 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996

 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994

 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 and for all data 1659-2020 (7.953) ... 1990

 7.9 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 ... 1991, 2008

 7.8 ... 1981, 2000  

 7.7 ... 1998, 2001 

 7.5 ... 2013, 2016 

 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

 7.2 ... 2012

 7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702) _ warmest was 1991-2020 at 8.95

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

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Enter your forecast for APRIL 2021 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Wednesday 31st March)

... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

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EWP contest for April 2021

The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2020.

Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2020 

142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

 64.8 __ average 1981-2010

 63.2 __ average 1991-2020

 58.8 __ average all data 1766 to 2020

 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2019 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2019 

recent April EWP values ... 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,

2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

14C    Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

200mm of Atlantic garbage!

[Bobd29]

9.4C and 67 mm for me please.

[Frigid]

Feel like we're due a cool April, last one being in 2016. For now, going for 7.8c, 65mm 

[summer blizzard]

Both analogues and pattern matching suggest a rather drab average month albeit a mean high not far away so probably not a wet month.

8.9C, 60mm.

[Weather26]

I think we maybe due a not so warm April so 9.2C and 44mm please

[virtualsphere]

9.7C and 56mm please 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

month of 2 halves, 1st to 15th or so, very dry, hardly a drop of rain, then from mid to late April, contender for wettest ever 2nd halves, rain/washout most days, low pressure dominant, few named storms too

8.1C,

110m all in 2nd half

[Dancerwithwings]

9.1c cheers

[Timmytour]

April Mean CETs on the up and up this century.....

[Timmytour]

I'm gonna go for a slight buckling of the trend this year with some warm periods in April overcome by cool and even cold periods to produce a relatively cool CET of 7.7C  with 77mm of rain 

 

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

April Mean CETs on the up and up this century.....

The startling stat for me is that there has never been an April that has been at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence, 30 years ago. 

[summer blizzard]

April, July and September are the holdouts for 2C below average in the last 30 years.

[Timmytour]

47 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The startling stat for me is that there has never been an April that has been at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence, 30 years ago. 

That's a long run of 31 successive years.

The longest such run in the 20th Century was only 13 which 1970 bought to an end and became the first of five in the next 20 years which went 1961-90 average - 1 below.

There were longer runs in the 18th and 19th centuries. The 19th did have a run from 1850 to 1878 in which only 1860 went 1C under the 1961-90 average, with the 18 years after it providing its longest run.  The 18th century had a run of 18 such years which ended in 1731.  

It's also worth noting it took 20 years in the history of recording CETs before an April was measured with such a low mean CET,( 1678 ) though the measuring in the 17th Century days was maybe subject to a measure of salt! 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I have a feeling we'll be having a fairly average April this year with a warm spell around the middle of the month.

8.2°C and 57mm.

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Summer18]

9.2C & 77mm

[B87]

9.3c and 55mm

[Polar Gael]

7.1°C and 36.1mm for me please. 

[NeilN]

8.8c and 77mm

[feb1991blizzard]

9c and 55mm please.

[DR(S)NO]

8.3c and 100 mm please

 

[Summer18]

 

On 21/03/2021 at 00:38, Summer18 said:

9.2C & 77mm

Can I lower mine to 7.8 please? Thanks 

[JeffC]

9.3 degrees and 68 mm please

[Daniel*]

Won’t guess yet but first week of April could be notably cool.

[Typhoon John]

9.2c please