Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[BruenSryan]

Been getting away with murder here this May besides temperature which have no doubt been dreadful. Sunshine is above average for this point in the month (58% of average and is in fact sunnier than the entirety of July and August 2020 now) and much of the rain has come overnight or early morning hours whilst vast majority of showers have been avoided. Certainly could be worse locally in Dublin given the synoptic pattern. This May is on par with 2019 right now for me which I did poorly that month. Worlds away from the great Mays of 2016-18 and 2020. 

I prefer this May quite a lot to now over May 2015 which still stands as the worst May I've experienced. 

[Britneyfan]

I cannot stand all this cloud!!! I do not mind sun and showers cos at least you see the sun and it’s exciting, instead we just stuck under endless grey cloud, with showers you can get some really exciting cloud shapes etc, 

but overcast grey muck is depressing and useless, just reached 13° though 

[IanR]

Ok another moan from me

A prolonged period of cool/ below average temperatures  and, according to climate change zealots just the weather doing its natural variations 

A prolonged period of warmth .....oh look more evidence of global warming , now stop driving your car and pay more tax please    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

51 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

I cannot stand all this cloud!!! I do not mind sun and showers cos at least you see the sun and it’s exciting, instead we just stuck under endless grey cloud, with showers you can get some really exciting cloud shapes etc, 

but overcast grey muck is depressing and useless, just reached 13° though 

but where! post is useless unless location in profile/sig etc

[Britneyfan]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but where! post is useless unless location in profile/sig etc

Sorry forgot to mention, I don’t like my location on personal choice but was meant to add south Essex/London border 

[damianslaw]

Whilst temperatures so far this month have been consistently below average, I've seen a map showing them to be about 3 degrees below the norm here, and it has been wet at times, here in the Lake District it has been the relentness dullness the most notable feature. May can beat June for sunshine levels in average year, we've barely had any sunshine all month so far.. its the sunshine we all need right now!

[Jack Wales]

Hi, just wandering if there's a summer forecast /discussion thread anywhere on here?

[al78]

7 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

All this High level blocking through the whole of April and into May. Fantastic winter Synoptics wasted. Its hard not to imagine what the weather would be like if this was happening in January. So frustrating.

Standard UK. Next winter we'll probably get setups that would be ideal for summer heat.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, al78 said:

Standard UK. Next winter we'll probably get setups that would be ideal for summer heat.

Yup, more than likely using up the winter ‘quota’ of northerly blocking now. Raging jets and dartboard lows all next winter...

[al78]

5 hours ago, markyo said:

In what way unusable?

Cool and wet, about as bad as it can be without being destructive.

Having said that, the SE seems to have escaped the worst of the rain. I get the impression W Sussex rainfall has been close to average, it seems to be western UK which cas copped the most rain. The first week of the month was dreadful for temperature both day and night. This last week, temperatures have recovered somewhat but are still running below average.

[al78]

From HadCET 1950-2020 data:

R^2 (April, Summer) = 0.03

R^2 (April-May, Summer) = 0.07

I didn't even detrend the data which would introduce some correlation through  a warming climate.

Conclusion: There is minimal relationship between April or May CET and the following summer CET. Therefore, there is no evidence to claim that a cool spring is more likely to result in a mediocre or poor summer temperature-wise at least. One or two years says nothing.

[markyo]

28 minutes ago, al78 said:

Cool and wet, about as bad as it can be without being destructive.

Having said that, the SE seems to have escaped the worst of the rain. I get the impression W Sussex rainfall has been close to average, it seems to be western UK which cas copped the most rain. The first week of the month was dreadful for temperature both day and night. This last week, temperatures have recovered somewhat but are still running below average.

Can i ask what it stops you doing? Temps don't stop you doing things in this range, i find personally the hotter it becomes ie 25c plus the less the weather is useable. i agree wet weather can be a different thing though.

Edited May 15, 2021 by markyo

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

BBC month ahead forecast is still looking about as worst as it can get. Nothing else to offer but a cool, unsettled start to meteorological summer and probably lasting all month too

 

"The strongest signals are coming from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and Indian Ocean rainfall patterns.  These weather pattern support a cooler than normal June with high pressure often being a feature west of Europe.
We expect we may see high pressure rebuild to the west towards mid-June, bringing another shot of colder Atlantic air and some unsettled weather." 

Edited May 15, 2021 by 38.7°C

[rwtwm]

8 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

All this High level blocking through the whole of April and into May. Fantastic winter Synoptics wasted. Its hard not to imagine what the weather would be like if this was happening in January. So frustrating.

It feels to me like this pattern clicked in around the end of December. So in a way we do know. I know we were snow starved in the south, but it's been cold pretty much since the turn of the year.

[Earthshine]

21 minutes ago, markyo said:

Can i ask what it stops you doing? Temps don't stop you doing things in this range, i find personally the hotter it becomes ie 25c plus the less the weather is useable. i agree wet weather can be a different thing though.

I just want to sit outside in a t-shirt.  This weather has been utterly dire.

[Britneyfan]

Finally had some sunny spells in south Essex and the temp has now reached 15.5° which is warmer than yesterday! Looks like plenty of heavy showers too 

[Freeze]

Once again heavy showers die away to drizzle as they pass over then turn heavy again to the east. Tough rain shield to crack.

[B87]

Another poor day here, just 14c now. Doesn't feel like May at all. 

When people say it feels ok in the sun, I consider that to be 'false warmth'. It needs to be warm in the shade.

[stainesbloke]

It’s reached 16°C here today and there’s even been glimmers of sunshine, amongst the showers. What a treat

[hillbilly]

9 hours ago, SummerShower said:

Also 1974, max 27.0 highest all year

1974 28.0 Southampton 15 June

[B87]

So that ECMWF 42 day forecast has pretty much zero sign of any above average temperatures all the way to 28 June. This is a catastrophe.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Can i ask what it stops you doing? Temps don't stop you doing things in this range, i find personally the hotter it becomes ie 25c plus the less the weather is useable. i agree wet weather can be a different thing though.

What on earth can you not do in 25c+? Apart from ski I can’t think of anything? 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, B87 said:

So that ECMWF 42 day forecast has pretty much zero sign of any above average temperatures all the way to 28 June. This is a catastrophe.

It was a dreadful outlook wasn’t it? Basically 6 weeks of northerlies and trough just to our east. I think from recollection maybe one week had a slightly higher possibility of high pressure near the UK. 

[markyo]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

What on earth can you not do in 25c+? Apart from ski I can’t think of anything? 

Sorry? I was only saying how folk feel temps differently. For me 25c plus means staying indoors, not sitting out, not going for a walk, not gardening etc. Time for you to get off your high horse, everybody is different. 

Edited May 15, 2021 by markyo

[B87]

Just now, Alderc said:

It was a dreadful outlook wasn’t it? Basically 6 weeks of northerlies and trough just to our east. I think from recollection maybe one week had a slightly higher possibility of high pressure near the UK. 

Looks like a repeat of 1991. Absolutely awful outlook.