Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[Guest]

Stuck at just 13c under the marine flow and low cloud, temps haven’t budged. Further east 19c already in places. Could see a 22/23c which would help provide a little more instability as well. 

[minus10]

21degrees and out walking in the bluebell wood near me.

very pleasant. Bluebells later this year i think owing to the cool spring. Normally they are out before the treetop canopy...

[Britneyfan]

Feeling very warm here plenty of sunny spells and currently 22° 

[Freeze]

Very disappointing today not warm at all and cloudy, hope a storm will make up for it tonight. This year is yet to surpass 16c ...

Edited May 9, 2021 by Freeze

[al78]

I know this is a moans thread but today is what I would associate with late spring weather in SE England. Sunshine (for much of the morning), temperatures warm enough for short sleeves, and the bluebells out in full. An excellent day for a walk.

 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, al78 said:

I know this is a moans thread but today is what I would associate with late spring weather in SE England. Sunshine (for much of the morning), temperatures warm enough for short sleeves, and the bluebells out in full. An excellent day for a walk.

 

Agree, shame it was only for about 5% of the uk landmass. 
 

Absolutely awful GFS 12z run. Current CET is only 7.4c (March CET was 7.2c) with an anomaly of -2.7c. Given current output would take a miracle for the month to end up better than 1-1.5c below average. 

[Howie]

Does anyone know why it's absolutely refusing to sustain warm temperatures this year? Looking at the models we're just trapped under another low with max temps of 15c for the foreseeable future. This is really messing with my mental health after the awful year that's just passed

[al78]

16 minutes ago, Howie said:

Does anyone know why it's absolutely refusing to sustain warm temperatures this year?

UK chain yanking.

If you look at the UK monthly rainfall stats last year across the time when lockdown was first implemented, then eased in early summer, you will see the much drier than average spring immediately switch to a wet summer right about when restrictions were eased. March was about average, April and May were much much drier than average, lockdown restrictions eased, then four out of the following five months were wet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, Howie said:

Does anyone know why it's absolutely refusing to sustain warm temperatures this year? Looking at the models we're just trapped under another low with max temps of 15c for the foreseeable future. This is really messing with my mental health after the awful year that's just passed

Low solar type weather IMO. Been saying it for a while.
 

Look at the GFS 12z and note the trough around the UK and the pockets of heights to our N. It’s textbook. 

Edited May 9, 2021 by CreweCold

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Managed to reach 18 Celsius in my neck of the woods today, which is quite an achievement compared to how it has been over the last few weeks. What I am really happy about though is the fact that it looks like there will be no more frosts for the foreseeable.

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Low solar type weather IMO. Been saying it for a while.
 

Look at the GFS 12z and note the trough around the UK and the pockets of heights to our N. It’s textbook. 

It's just a shame that these 'textbook' situations don't appear to provide any enhanced forecasting abilities, Crewe: AFAIA, Piers Corbyn's forecasts are as dire today as they were 20-years ago. So there must other more prosaic mechanisms at work, too?

[Cheshire Freeze]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's just a shame that these 'textbook' situations don't appear to provide any enhanced forecasting abilities, Crewe: AFAIA, Piers Corbyn's forecasts are as dire today as they were 20-years ago. So there must other more prosaic mechanisms at work, too?

Pete, there was a height anomaly plot posted on here a few years ago. All low, ascending solar years were plotted and the anomalies were striking. UK trough, Icelandic/Greenland heights.

[Howie]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Low solar type weather IMO. Been saying it for a while.
 

Look at the GFS 12z and note the trough around the UK and the pockets of heights to our N. It’s textbook. 

Ahh that makes sense, hopefully it will fall in the right place in winter 

[Howie]

1 hour ago, al78 said:

UK chain yanking.

If you look at the UK monthly rainfall stats last year across the time when lockdown was first implemented, then eased in early summer, you will see the much drier than average spring immediately switch to a wet summer right about when restrictions were eased. March was about average, April and May were much much drier than average, lockdown restrictions eased, then four out of the following five months were wet.

The weather really does love to tease us doesn't it?

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Howie said:

The weather really does love to tease us doesn't it?

Off course it does, worst still yet to come. Probably entering a 9month autumn come June 1st. A dire, wet & cool summer given we’ll be trapped here by travel restrictions, autumn proper and then winter autumn as a nasty trick after thinking we’d get colder winter following a dire summer. 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Low solar type weather IMO. Been saying it for a while.

Yes, we've noticed.

What about all of the other previous years? I haven't seen it mentioned?!

1 hour ago, al78 said:

UK chain yanking.

If you look at the UK monthly rainfall stats last year across the time when lockdown was first implemented, then eased in early summer, you will see the much drier than average spring immediately switch to a wet summer right about when restrictions were eased. March was about average, April and May were much much drier than average, lockdown restrictions eased, then four out of the following five months were wet.

My own data doesn't fit in to your findings. 

What about the lockdown during the Winter? I recorded my wettest December, January saw well above average rainfall here with localised flooding.

Anyway, this thread is supposed to be about Spring 2021..

[Cheshire Freeze]

34 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yes, we've noticed.

What about all of the other previous years? I haven't seen it mentioned?!

 

Pretty offhand and snarky for a moderator...

Thought this forum was all inclusive and people were free to voice their thoughts weatherwise without being pilloried for it?  People asking why we're seeing the output we are and I'm providing my thoughts, nothing more than that.

Edited May 9, 2021 by CreweCold

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty offhand and snarky for a moderator...

Thought this forum was all inclusive and people were free to voice their thoughts weatherwise without being pilloried for it?  People asking why we're seeing the output we are and I'm providing my thoughts, nothing more than that.

Not really.

It's a fact that you've been repeating it for a couple of months, and I'm asking why now?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Not really.

It's a fact that you've been repeating it for a couple of months, and I'm asking why now?

Maybe because we're exactly at the point in the cycle where we can expect the solar state to have such effects on the terrestrial weather of NW Europe?

We saw pretty clear evidence 2007-2012 when ascending from the last minima- jet stream pushed well S of normal, UK troughing and N blocking of some description.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Maybe because we're exactly at the point in the cycle where we can expect the solar state to have such effects on the terrestrial weather of NW Europe?

We saw pretty clear evidence 2007-2012 when ascending from the last minima- jet stream pushed well S of normal, UK troughing and N blocking of some description.

Oh I see. So that means we can forget about everything in between then?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Oh I see. So that means we can forget about everything in between then?

Well no. I think every year I've given thoughts on summer. Just as I do with winter.

Edited May 9, 2021 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

Nice pictures of bluebell woods. I was out walking today in bluebells woods looking stunning. Much later this year, woods only now receiving a tree canopy.

Posts talking about ascending years from minima solar cycle - bring northern blocking and southerly tracking jet, we certainly saw this in the main from 2010-2013, with a few temporary blips, autumn - winter 11-12, but generally the period from winter 09-10 to summer 13 was dominated by a southerly tracking jet and lots of northern blocking, returning often quite cold or just near average winters, with a 3 year run of very poor summers 2010-2012.

Edited May 9, 2021 by damianslaw

[NEVES SCREAMER]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Off course it does, worst still yet to come. Probably entering a 9month autumn come June 1st. A dire, wet & cool summer given we’ll be trapped here by travel restrictions, autumn proper and then winter autumn as a nasty trick after thinking we’d get colder winter following a dire summer. 

I am no expert on anything but had a look at the metcheck super long range charts from now to October and I was absolutely depressed by it. Absolutely awful and none stop train of low pressure after low pressure. No doubt the folks on here with a great knowledge will discount this. Hope so ! 

[stainesbloke]

15 hours ago, Alderc said:

So Jealous.....

Today reached 26°C here with strong sunshine, was absolutely gorgeous 

13 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Latest ECM is a horror show from Wednesday onwards. Shades of May 2019. I hope to god it doesn't come off. 

Yes, that May was very cool and wet here, though summer 2019 was a good one. Will be interesting to see how it pans out, as long as it’s warm and there’s decent camping weather, I’m happy  

Edited May 9, 2021 by stainesbloke

[Azazel]

It’s May 9th and we’ve had one nice day this spring back in March.

Ive never ever seen anything like it.