Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I have a feeling we will follow either the pattern of 1984 or 1987. Both Aprils were sunny, but also much warmer than 2021, and were followed by cool dull Mays. 
 

I hope we at least get to see a warm or hot period around the May 24th to May 31st, which covers my birthday. It’s been almost a guarantee since May 2017, and on and off since May 2009, that the last week or May is often warm and sunny. 

Some humdinger thunderstorms like 2017 and 2018 would also go down quite nicely between the sunshine... In fact, 2016, 2017 and 2018 all had thunderstorms here on the 27th weirdly. 

[Arctic Hare]

34 minutes ago, B87 said:

The latest first 20c in London was in 1983, when it wasn't breached until 30th May!

Thanks! Looking at Trevor Harley's site (don't know why I didn't do that earlier) it seems nationwide it was 25th May (20.3 °C at Weymouth).

And two months later we had the hottest July ever recorded, until 2006 came along. Just goes to show, all things are possible!

[Weather-history]

44 minutes ago, B87 said:

The latest first 20c in London was in 1983, when it wasn't breached until 30th May!

In 1991, it wasn't until July for Manchester.

[damianslaw]

Any correlation between very dry April's and generally poor summers, in recent years? Just thinking of the likes of 1987, 2007, 2011 and 2020.. all were followed by average or poor summers overall, with alot of rain here at least, but at least in 2020 the dry weather held through May and well into June.... not a fan of prolonged dry weather in April, a harbinger of poor summer. Going further back 1974 was bone dry April and a very poor summer followed. 1997 was very dry as well, and whilst very warm, a very wet summer followed...

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[Don]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any correlation between very dry April's and generally poor summers, in recent years? Just thinking of the likes of 1987, 2007, 2011 and 2020.. all were followed by average or poor summers overall, with alot of rain here at least, but at least in 2020 the dry weather held through May and well into June.... not a fan of prolonged dry weather in April, a harbinger of poor summer. Going further back 1974 was bone dry April and a very poor summer followed. 1997 was very dry as well, and whilst very warm, a very wet summer followed...

 

 

Those Aprils you mention (apart from 1974) were also very mild/warm as well as dry, whereas this April has been cold.  What type of summers have followed cold/dry Aprils?

Edited April 25, 2021 by Don

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any correlation between very dry April's and generally poor summers, in recent years? Just thinking of the likes of 1987, 2007, 2011 and 2020.. all were followed by average or poor summers overall, with alot of rain here at least, but at least in 2020 the dry weather held through May and well into June.... not a fan of prolonged dry weather in April, a harbinger of poor summer. Going further back 1974 was bone dry April and a very poor summer followed. 1997 was very dry as well, and whilst very warm, a very wet summer followed...

Then again, April 1968 was crap and so was the summer; April 1976 was okay, the summer was fantastic; April 1975 was crap, the summer was fantastic; April 1970 was crap, May & June were fantastic, July and August were crap . . . I'm sure that, were any of these 'correlations' valid, someone (not James Madden!) would be a millionaire by now?!

[Frigid]

15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any correlation between very dry April's and generally poor summers, in recent years? Just thinking of the likes of 1987, 2007, 2011 and 2020.. all were followed by average or poor summers overall, with alot of rain here at least, but at least in 2020 the dry weather held through May and well into June.... not a fan of prolonged dry weather in April, a harbinger of poor summer. Going further back 1974 was bone dry April and a very poor summer followed. 1997 was very dry as well, and whilst very warm, a very wet summer followed...

 

 

GavsWeatherVids covered that in his recent summer update and it does show that dry April's do tend to give poor summers with 1976 being the exception.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

GavsWeatherVids covered that in his recent summer update and it does show that dry April's do tend to give poor summers with 1976 being the exception.

The problem with mechanism-free correlations though, is that (given sufficient time) they tend to disappear?

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, Frigid said:

GavsWeatherVids covered that in his recent summer update and it does show that dry April's do tend to give poor summers with 1976 being the exception.

Yes not surprised at such a correlation.. just from observation I can't recall many very dry April's followed by very good summers - 1984 perhaps only one, and that was a better summer in western parts.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Yes not surprised at such a correlation.. just from observation I can't recall many very dry April's followed by very good summers - 1984 perhaps only one, and that was a better summer in western parts.

I think it was about 93F, in MK?

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I hope we get no more frosts. Had enough of them now.

[B87]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Those Aprils you mention (apart from 1974) were also very mild/warm as well as dry, whereas this April has been cold.  What type of summers have followed cold/dry Aprils?

There have only been 4 cold and sunny Aprils in London; 1968, 1969, 1976, 1994.

1968 had a terrible summer. 1969 had a cool but sunny summer. July 1969 was the warmest month of the 1960s but that isn't saying much. Summer 1976 was obvously the warmest on record, and 1994 had a cool June but a hot July, with a mixed August.

Looking at Aprils with over 200 hours of sun here, we get 1969, 1984, 1990, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2020. A couple of those summers were decent or good (1984, 1990). Several started poorly and improved, with August being the best month (1997, 2002, 2007, 2020).

Edited April 25, 2021 by B87

[Thundery wintry showers]

What about 1990?  1995?  2003?  2006?  I recall they were all dry Aprils.

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

GavsWeatherVids covered that in his recent summer update and it does show that dry April's do tend to give poor summers with 1976 being the exception.

There are a few more exceptions than 1976.What about 1997,1995,1990 and 1984?

You could argue a dry April is more likely to give the very best summers!

Having said that the longer it is dry the more likely we are to have a longer wet spell later but that does not mean we are in for a poor summer.

[MP-R]

April 2003 was also very dry until the final 6-7 days following a dry second half to March, a wet spell followed in May then a good summer followed that continued long into September.

[summer blizzard]

As I alluded to the other day April's which are below average don't have an abnormal correlation to the following summer so I doubt that precipitation does either, people seem to be too general in what they are regarding as dry and when they call their limit.

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, B87 said:

 

1968 had a terrible summer. 1969 had a cool but sunny summer

Interesting the Manchester Summer Indices for those summers aren't that bad

1968 215

1969 234

Last summer was 182

 

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Weather-history
.

[Weather-history]

I looked at this over a decade ago about very dry Aprils and on how poor/good the following summers that follows them were.

I think the very dry Aprils and bad summers idea goes back to after what happened in 1912, you rarely hear about that April of 1912 because the summer that followed has gone down in weather folklore, but that April was exceptionally dry.

April 1954 is another one, you hardly hear anything about it, that was exceptionally dry then was followed by what was arguably overall the worst summer of the 20th century.

Then very recently, 2007 and 2011. 2007 was the rainfall, 2011 was the suppressed temperatures.

Aprils 1974 and 1980 were  followed by poor summers. 

Overall, however the results are mixed though. 

 

[Guest]

With nearly 40days of holiday to book this year normally I think I’d take the appalling model output out of the equation and just book 10days away somewhere and fly away from the this Saturday. Some utterly atrocious charts being churned out again this morning, lots of days struggling to reach 10c next week

[Bradley in Kent]

Good morning all,

I'm going to put a positive spin on the recent and forecasted cool conditions.

I've never personally recalled trees being this late to leaf, which means when meeting outside, there has been less shade. 

The pub gardens near me would normally by now be shaded by deciduous trees, but whenever I've been there we've all been basked in dappled warm sunlight. As we know, being in the sun is most important in cold spring spells!

I'm personally not bothered when the leaves bud to be honest, as long as they do eventually of course!

[Azazel]

I'm only going off memory and not statistical data or anything, but I don't recall everything looking so bare this late into the season, ever!

If I didn't know what time of year it was and had to hazard a guess by looking at the foliage, I would guess early-mid March.

I smoke (I know, disgusting habit and hoping to quit soon) and I will have a cigarette in the garden every night before bed while I read the forum or do other things on my phone. I haven't been able to do it yet this year without several layers, my dressing gown and a hot water bottle shoved up my jumper. Absolutely unreal for this stage of the year - AND there's no hope on the horizon.

On saturday I had a few friends over and we played some cards in the garden with some drinks - as soon as the sun began to set around 8pm, we had to move inside because the hurricane force easterly was absolutely frigid.

It's so weird that even an evening temperature of like 8 degrees would feel positively balmy right now.

I honestly don't remember anything like it and it's thoroughly depressing.

[Earthshine]

Any link between dry and cold Aprils and the subsequent summer is probably weak at best.

[Arctic Hare]

The outlook really is absolutely miserable today. Cold, unsettled and absolutely no sign of even average temperatures well into May. I'm going to predict that even most of those who are looking for rain for the gardens etc will be thoroughly fed up with it in 10 days time.

Better make the most of today's last nice day!

 

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

With nearly 40days of holiday to book this year normally I think I’d take the appalling model output out of the equation and just book 10days away somewhere and fly away from the this Saturday. Some utterly atrocious charts being churned out again this morning, lots of days struggling to reach 10c next week

Not sure where is going to struggle to reach 10C next week? Certainly not in your neck of the woods. Scotland maybe.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

41 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Any link between dry and cold Aprils and the subsequent summer is probably weak at best.

SSTs right now must be cold, if not very cold so i dont expect much this summer.