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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.


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Posted
  • Location: Dudley
  • Location: Dudley

    Just want the cold and wind to go. I will accept it in deep mid winter. But mid March?  About time we had a sea change. This morning was shocking. 3/4 c and nasty winds gusting. Early/mid teens will do thank you. ....oh and RIP Murray Walker. Was never a massive F1 fan but Murray was famed for his enthusiasm.  

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    I oft said, during the time I was a regular poster in this forum, that the the words 'upgrade' and 'downgrade' should be placed in the swear filter sine die. They are subjective and superfluous and in

    Yes indeed. It gets forgotten that there are people who view and partake of this site who are actually also ordinary members of the public and not just 'weather enthusiasts'.  Its good to be a weather

    One of the best April day's weather for sometime.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    11 hours ago, Don said:

    April 2011 was the warmest on record with a CET 11.8C, beating the previous record set in 2007.  It had a real summerlike feel to it!  April last year was very warm and settled until the final week when it turned much colder and unsettled, which pegged the CET back to a cooler but still very warm 10.4C.

    April 2011 was a nice warm month, but unfortunately the summer of 2011 was very poor. Similar to 1987, when we had a very warm April. 
     

    April 2020 was warm, but it also had some colder days and the nights and mornings were still cold. 2011 didn’t feel like that, although we probably still had some chilly days, I just can’t remember. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    I must admit I hadn't remembered summer 2011 was poor. I suspect the reason is pretty simple: the absolutely horrific "summer" of 2012 blew it out of the water.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I remember doing a lot of walking in March and April 2012 and most of it in lovely weather. I was off work then but started a job in May, so I probably didn't notice the summer as much!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
    14 hours ago, Don said:

    April 2011 was the warmest on record with a CET 11.8C, beating the previous record set in 2007.  It had a real summerlike feel to it!  April last year was very warm and settled until the final week when it turned much colder and unsettled, which pegged the CET back to a cooler but still very warm 10.4C.

    and 2007 was an awful summer

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    2011 and 12 were both rotten summers, and part of the poor run that set in from 2007 until 12. 2012 was by far the worst of the lot though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    In terms of disruption 2007 was the worst by some distance here in Worcestershire with its horrendous flooding. But in terms of grindingly terrible weather for months on end, 2012 was the worst. Both horrible in their different ways.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Summer 12 was more a summer of two halves with a horrific first half and a average to poor second half.

    Summer 07 was probably the worst of the lot since mid-June through late August was just poor for summer weather.

    Summer 11 was a drier version of 07 essentially.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    April 2020 bucked the trend of other recent very warm Aprils, in that it presaged a lengthy spell of summery conditions lasting through to July  (cut short the summer though...), 1987 was followed by a poor May and summer, 2007 ditto, and 2011 ditto... I'm always nervous of generally very warm dry April's for this reason, feel much more comfortable when our May's are like this regardless of how April went, think 2018 for example!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, M1JWR said:

    and 2007 was an awful summer

    Yes and that's why warm/dry April's are not necessarily great news for the following summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
    25 minutes ago, Don said:

    Yes and that's why warm/dry April's are not necessarily great news for the following summer.

    however occasionally they can run all the way through, was it 1984

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, M1JWR said:

    however occasionally they can run all the way through, was it 1984

    Yeah it was. 1984 was very warm or even hot for a little while in April, but the May was a bit hit and miss and actually quite cold. Summer that followed was hot and sunny.

    April 1980 was another warm and sunny month, and May 1980 was often warm and sunny. Hot and humid at the start of June, and some hot days in late July and early august, but the summer overall was poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
  • Location: The Debatable Lands

    i remember 1975 on the other hand,i think it was may when there was some snow, up here anyway,diddent last long, and a cracking summer followed

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl

    I'm not really a pattern matching fan. I don't think April or May has a huge bearing on what Summer could be like. May 2008, 2012 & 2017 were all decent months for sunny warm weather yet the following Summers were also rubbish, more especially the first two. April 1995 was rather uneventful and cool at times but the May was shocking temperature wise, I recorded 3 air frosts in that month and a max of only 6C on the 17th yet the Summer was right up there with 1976 & 2018. In fact 1995 had more days above 20C here than the other two so for me 1995 is the benchmark for sustained warmth and despite a warming climate it's still not been beaten after nearly 26 years. April 2003 was very good, the May was thundery and cool but Summer was good. Both April & May last year was good but Summer was cloudier than average, wet and thundery. So you just never know as there's not a lot of consistency with any kind of pattern. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    On the April and May point we now have the 1991-2020 averages so we can simply look.

    April now averages 9.0C so we can call 10.0C a warm April.

    May now averages 11.9C so we can put the threshold at 12.9C.

    There are 22 April’s which fit the bill.

    There are 32 May’s which fit the bill.

    For a warm June, July and August our new thresholds are 15.7C, 17.8C and 17.5C.

    There are 7 April’s which produce a warm summer month, almost a third.

    There are 11 May’s which produce a warm summer month, again about a third.

    Essentially, there’s not much statistical basis to support poor summer claims vs average after a warm April or May. Since 2000 though we’ve underperformed after April (1 of 5 producing a warm month) and overperformed on May (2 of 3).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

    I'm not really a pattern matching fan. I don't think April or May has a huge bearing on what Summer could be like. May 2008, 2012 & 2017 were all decent months for sunny warm weather yet the following Summers were also rubbish, more especially the first two. April 1995 was rather uneventful and cool at times but the May was shocking temperature wise, I recorded 3 air frosts in that month and a max of only 6C on the 17th yet the Summer was right up there with 1976 & 2018. In fact 1995 had more days above 20C here than the other two so for me 1995 is the benchmark for sustained warmth and despite a warming climate it's still not been beaten after nearly 26 years. April 2003 was very good, the May was thundery and cool but Summer was good. Both April & May last year was good but Summer was cloudier than average, wet and thundery. So you just never know as there's not a lot of consistency with any kind of pattern. 

    May 1995 started off hot and sunny, but then it gave way to some very cool conditions. It was still quite chilly into early June and most people were looking at a poor summer. 16c in the first week of June in London, was quite poor.

    Then mid June until late august produced the best summer weather for quite some time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Mostly vile weekend weather here in Prague. Gales and showers yesterday, nicer this morning but the wind was still quite gusty and cold, with more heavy showers and cloud this afternoon. Looks like a cold week to come, too with sleet and snow showers possible. Am beginning to crave sunshine and warmth!

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    been a magical start to spring here..in fact spring doesn't usually arrive until mid April..been mild dry and sunny with above 0c daytime highs for the last 2 weeks..have an early snow melt which is a bonus 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    It's rather dawned on me that comparisons of warm dry Aprils with subsequent summers may be being skewed by the recent warming trend, which may be biasing things towards the recent succession of warm Aprils followed by cloudy wet summers.  Note though that even in the 21st century there was a counterexample in April 2003.  The 1991-2020 average CET was 9.0C, but over 1961-1990 it was only 7.9C, and there was a remarkable run from 1962-1986 inclusive when no April recorded a CET of 9C or higher.   Pre-21st century I suggest that 8C CET is a reasonable benchmark.

    When I was growing up in the 1990s, the Aprils of 1995 and 1997 (CET 9.1 and 9.0 respectively) were certainly regarded as warm and very dry at the time.  Sunshine in April 1995 was generally above normal except in the northern half of Scotland, and April 1997 was very sunny in the SE, though dull in the NW.  The first half of April 1995 was the warmest for 50 years, which more than offset the cold snap from the 18th-21st.  I mention 1997 as although that summer was a mixed bag it did contain the second hottest August on record.

    Note that April 1984 wasn't particularly warm as measured by the CET (8.1) but would have felt warm due to well above average sunshine, warm days and cool nights.  The same could also be said of April 1990 (CET 8.0).

     

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    11 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    It's rather dawned on me that comparisons of warm dry Aprils with subsequent summers may be being skewed by the recent warming trend, which may be biasing things towards the recent succession of warm Aprils followed by cloudy wet summers.  Note though that even in the 21st century there was a counterexample in April 2003.  The 1991-2020 average CET was 9.0C, but over 1961-1990 it was only 7.9C, and there was a remarkable run from 1962-1986 inclusive when no April recorded a CET of 9C or higher.   Pre-21st century I suggest that 8C CET is a reasonable benchmark.

    When I was growing up in the 1990s, the Aprils of 1995 and 1997 (CET 9.1 and 9.0 respectively) were certainly regarded as warm and very dry at the time.  Sunshine in April 1995 was generally above normal except in the northern half of Scotland, and April 1997 was very sunny in the SE, though dull in the NW.  The first half of April 1995 was the warmest for 50 years, which more than offset the cold snap from the 18th-21st.  I mention 1997 as although that summer was a mixed bag it did contain the second hottest August on record.

    Note that April 1984 wasn't particularly warm as measured by the CET (8.1) but would have felt warm due to well above average sunshine, warm days and cool nights.  The same could also be said of April 1990 (CET 8.0).

     

    I would have thought 1984 was warmer, because it was one of the best Aprils at the time,. 1987 was the first time I noticed sustained warmth during April, but vaguely remember warm days in April 1982.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yes April 1982 was warm and dry and quite sunny, though there was a northerly outbreak in the second week which coincided with Easter.  I'm surprised that the CET was only 8.6, as at Durham the month was 1.3C warmer than the 1961-1990 average, so there may have been a fair amount of regional variation. 

    I think often the maximum temperature is more important than mean temperature for how warm a month "feels".  I checked max and min CET, and by that measure, April 1984's average maximum was the highest since 1961, and its mean minimum was the joint lowest since 1956.  The month was also cool until the 18th and then consistently warm and sunny from the 19th onwards, which would have made that spell especially stand out at the time.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    i remember 1997 being particularly warm dry and sunny..certainly the warmest and sunniest i have experienced in the UK on a par with 2007..so was surprised the CET was only 9.0c..1993 had a CET of 9.5c but i dont remember it being warm..other April that stands out for me was April 1987 at 10.3c..maybe 1997 was dry sunny but cool at night? thus bringing the CET down?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    That figures - April 1997 was a very sunny month in the south (especially south-east) with temperatures up to 2.5C above the normal by day but near normal by night, while in Scotland and the north of England it was cloudier with a similar anomaly of 1 to 1.5C by both day and night.  The north-south split explains why averaged nationally it wasn't that remarkable sunshine wise, despite being very much so in the SE (218.5 hours at Heathrow).

    April 1993 was a dull wet month with an emphasis on high overnight minima so that's probably why it didn't feel that warm.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    21 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    That figures - April 1997 was a very sunny month in the south (especially south-east) with temperatures up to 2.5C above the normal by day but near normal by night, while in Scotland and the north of England it was cloudier with a similar anomaly of 1 to 1.5C by both day and night.  The north-south split explains why averaged nationally it wasn't that remarkable sunshine wise, despite being very much so in the SE (218.5 hours at Heathrow).

    April 1993 was a dull wet month with an emphasis on high overnight minima so that's probably why it didn't feel that warm.

    just out of interest it says east Exeter on your location? i lived in Broadclyst from 2001-2010

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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London

    It's that time of year that the sun gets high enough to be truly pleasant, particularly around noon. The only issue is that we have barely seen it in weeks! 

    Even with high pressure in charge, it still feels like winter down here. 

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