Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Going back to the Manchester rainfall discussion...15th wettest city in the UK.
Always thought it would be higher! 

 

I think the reputation stems from the fact that it is the wettest big city in England (unless you include Bristol in that category).  It is also very prominent culturally, in sport and in the media so gets a lot of coverage.

Compared to some smaller towns and cities in Wales, Cumbria, SW England and Western Scotland it's relatively dry.

Interestingly though, the northern parts of Greater Manchester are noticeably wetter (Oldham, Rochdale) than the southern parts which are flatter (places like Sale and Altrincham). I used to live near the airport in the south and drive to work in Oldham in the mornings- it was often dry at home and raining in Oldham.

[stainesbloke]

Weather getting worse here this week, currently 2°C and snow/wet snizzle falling, foul  

[Weather-history]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think the reputation stems from the fact that it is the wettest big city in England (unless you include Bristol in that category). 

Also probably the cricket, I think Old Trafford is the cricket ground in the UK that has had the most days rained off during Test matches

[Daniel*]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 

It goes without saying that we will never do as well as the SE though.

You’ve been doing better than us recently. Today feels very chilly in London, 8C middle afternoon and showers. We have seen lots of clear cold nights but in afternoon the cloud keeps returning disappointing.

I did my stats and April 1-14th mean max is 6.4C cooler than 2020 pretty shocking difference - 17.4 v 11.0

Edited April 15, 2021 by Daniel*

[Nick L]

Good grief that GFS is uninspiring. Also noticed today how slow nature is in waking up through spring, most of the trees here are still bare - that's never normally the case surely?

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I do have grass and I've seen it brown on a number of occasions though. It's definitely not a once in 20 year thing around here.

Of course it isn't as common as in the south and east. 

In 2006 the grass was certainly brown where I was living.

As for heat, Manchester does okay compared to most central towns and cities in England. Southerly or southeasterly flows are ideal here and easterlies are pretty good too.

There is a very sharp drop off to the rest of the NW region though- places like Preston and Blackburn don't do nearly as well and Liverpool gets a lot of sea breezes.

It goes without saying that we will never do as well as the SE though.

I didn't say once in 20 years. That's being a bit melodramatic haha. But if you average things out I'd say we seem to get a decentish summer (by most people's standards) about once in 7 years up here to cause drought stress, if you count total days above 20C and periods of high pressure that is. So that's still a long time to wait really, that's why most people jet off to Spain or wherever to escape the damp cool dreary summers here, our summers are just not reliable unfortunately.

And easterly & southerly flows in summer are pretty rare and most often associated with plumes, especially the latter which just don't last very long away from the SE corner and continental Europe. We get most of our easterlies in late winter & spring. And besides, practically all of our decent summers are when we get a persistent Azores HP over us like in 2018, July 2006, 1995, 1976 etc and not down to any particular wind direction. I don't think a day or two a month of hot weather from plumes cuts the mustard really for most heat lovers in this forum when the rest is high teens and drizzle, that's still a poor summer, but each to their own.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[seabreeze86]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good grief that GFS is uninspiring. Also noticed today how slow nature is in waking up through spring, most of the trees here are still bare - that's never normally the case surely?

Yes I’ve noticed that I don’t recall the trees in our local park being this bare this late into spring

[Andy Bown]

30 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good grief that GFS is uninspiring. Also noticed today how slow nature is in waking up through spring, most of the trees here are still bare - that's never normally the case surely?

Find Paul Knightley’s Twitter post from earlier this week comparing a snowy morning with bare trees to a warm sunny one last year with trees in full leaf.

[Azazel]

Boringggggg

I was freezing cold in the office earlier, then when I came out too my car it was sheltered from the wind and in the sun so I was boiling. Now I’m freezing again. 

[Guest]

It’s another tragic GFS run offering nothing but frost and cold days. Unfortunately lots of the ensembles also sided with the Ops run. No doubt the we’ll pay for a dry April with wet May. Rubbish all around!!

 

 

[Frigid]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s another tragic GFS run offering nothing but frost and cold days. Unfortunately lots of the ensembles also sided with the Ops run. No doubt the we’ll pay for a dry April with wet May. Rubbish all around!!

 

 

Surely this would result in the coldest April since 1989 if it were accurate. Has also been very dry and looks to be virtually precip free for the next few weeks.

[AderynCoch]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I do have grass and I've seen it brown on a number of occasions though. It's definitely not a once in 20 year thing around here.

Of course it isn't as common as in the south and east. 

In 2006 the grass was certainly brown where I was living.

As for heat, Manchester does okay compared to most central towns and cities in England. Southerly or southeasterly flows are ideal here and easterlies are pretty good too.

There is a very sharp drop off to the rest of the NW region though- places like Preston and Blackburn don't do nearly as well and Liverpool gets a lot of sea breezes.

It goes without saying that we will never do as well as the SE though.

Liverpool also does well in S/SEerly flows. In these instances, sea breezes tend to be offset by offshore winds. In fact, I'm pretty sure Crosby (right on the beach) has a higher all-time maximum than Ringway. 

The worst wind direction is NWerly: always rubbish in summer and nearly always rubbish in winter.

Edited April 15, 2021 by AderynCoch

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Surely this would result in the coldest April since 1989 if it were accurate. Has also been very dry and looks to be virtually precip free for the next few weeks.

Almost certainly is the Ops run came off. 
 

ECM has followed suit, cold pretty much all the way. Dire.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Alderc

[Howie]

This is really incredibly depressing tbh, it really really needs to start getting warmer at some point, no one has time for this in April/May! Especially after the year we've had

[Northernlights]

Up to 14 c in late afternoon with blue skies and its still 10c so a frost does not look likely tonight.Spring barley coming up in nice rows in the evening sun. Great to feel a soft wind on your face as you open the door.

I see Kinloss is still 12.8c so a southerly breeze descending off the Cairngorms may be the reason.

[Thundery wintry showers]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Good grief that GFS is uninspiring. Also noticed today how slow nature is in waking up through spring, most of the trees here are still bare - that's never normally the case surely?

Having defended cold outbreaks in spring earlier, I may as well take the opportunity to demonstrate that I also see the other side of the coin.  That GFS 12Z does have a fair amount of cold raw dull weather with rain and drizzle and maybe a little sleet in the longer-term outlook, for East Anglia and the south-east from around T+216 and more widely towards the end of the run.  As is often the case with such north-easterly setups, it would be sunny and dry in western Scotland, though.  Not too much support for it yet on the ECMWF though and it's a long way off.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

Liverpool also does well in S/SEerly flows. In these instances, sea breezes tend to be offset by offshore winds. In fact, I'm pretty sure Crosby (right on the beach) has a higher all-time maximum than Ringway. 

The worst wind direction is NWerly: always rubbish in summer and nearly always rubbish in winter.

Yes although being on the coast you are always more vulnerable to being affected by sea breezes. There have been many instances in the past of it being in the high teens on the coast only around 30 miles away and mid to high 20s at Manchester Airport. You definitely need a more favourable breeze to be sure of the high temps on the Irish Sea coast. It's almost always cooler there in a westerly than it is Manchester for obvious reasons.

[HellItsHot]

Blimey I don’t know what’s worse, this chilly April weather, or the fact if we’d got similar synoptics in Jan/Feb it would have led to some great cold and maybe snowy conditions.  
 

I know it is only April but it’s frustrating that good hours of sunlight and outside only pubs are being wasted on maxes of 10 degrees. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve never wanted some decent warmth so much. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by HellItsHot

[Arctic Hare]

I felt quite cheerful when I went into town for a wander and a coffee this afternoon. The sun was out and it felt okay out of the wind. But then I realised... we're halfway through April, it's 12 °C and I'm happy about that? With possibly only a brief respite next week before yet more pointless cold at the end of the month? I'm not into pattern matching, but I really hope we go the 1989 route now and get a great May and a fine summer!

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I think the reputation stems from the fact that it is the wettest big city in England (unless you include Bristol in that category).  It is also very prominent culturally, in sport and in the media so gets a lot of coverage.

Compared to some smaller towns and cities in Wales, Cumbria, SW England and Western Scotland it's relatively dry.

Interestingly though, the northern parts of Greater Manchester are noticeably wetter (Oldham, Rochdale) than the southern parts which are flatter (places like Sale and Altrincham). I used to live near the airport in the south and drive to work in Oldham in the mornings- it was often dry at home and raining in Oldham.

Windermere I believe is the wettest town in England after Ambleside, Manchester in comparison is much drier..

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

I felt quite cheerful when I went into town for a wander and a coffee this afternoon. The sun was out and it felt okay out of the wind. But then I realised... we're halfway through April, it's 12 °C and I'm happy about that? With possibly only a brief respite next week before yet more pointless cold at the end of the month? I'm not into pattern matching, but I really hope we go the 1989 route now and get a great May and a fine summer!

Yes, a great May is what we need.. hopefully the restrictions will be lifted further mid May, and I hope around then the weather behaves to add to a much better feel overall, rather than this half-hearted state of comfort we are currently in, not helped by the chilly weather, its not a very relaxing feeling all round.

[Nick L]

It's currently tolerable if the sun is out and there's no wind. Lose either of them and it's not pleasant to be out in.

The irony is that I'll get easily sunburned at this time of year!

[Azazel]

Eurgh the future doesn’t look bright.

it’s starting to look like the ‘warm/light’ portion of the year is going to feel a fair bit shorter this year. 

[Arctic Hare]

I'm just wondering when the last time was that 20 °C was recorded widely in March but not in April. Must be a possibility this year.

[Derecho]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes, a great May is what we need.. hopefully the restrictions will be lifted further mid May, and I hope around then the weather behaves to add to a much better feel overall, rather than this half-hearted state of comfort we are currently in, not helped by the chilly weather, its not a very relaxing feeling all round.

I'm hoping we get something similar to 1989 which saw a fantastic May from the charts I've seen and a hot summer. September saw plenty of high pressure too. I'll take that but the weather will throw whatever it likes at us. To be honest this April hasn't been too bad. Soils have dried out which has made it good for hiking, lots of good cycling weather. It's a shame we haven't had many really warm days yet (late March excluded) but it's been ok apart from last weekend.

Bit cold in the beer garden though. The very dry soils and lack of rainfall though may help us get some higher maximums in the summer if it carries on...