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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

     

    23 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

    What's the chances this month could be the coldest April on record? Needs to come in below 5.7°C here, which was 1986. I reckon it's possible especially with the dire outlook.

    That's very similar to the April 1986 CET (5.8C).  It's a very tall order - we're currently running at 5.6C, 1.2C below the 1961-90 average for the first 12 days of April.  If that anomaly was maintained in the second half of April we'd end up on 6.7C, which would make it easily the coldest April since 1989, but not up there with April 1986.

    Also, the model outputs are increasingly agreeing on a warm up around Sunday/Monday - OK, not as warm as many on here would like, but allowing for the GFS's typical underestimations of daytime maximum temperatures there's strong support for daytime highs creeping a little above the seasonal norm, peaking at 13-16C and possibly nudging 18C in the south-east.  For comparison 18C is London's long-term average maximum for May, using the more recent averages (for 1961-1990 it was 17C).

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    On 12/04/2021 at 12:17, reef said:

    We beat two April records this morning: lowest minimum on record (-3.4C previously -3.1C in 1990) and the first April with 6 air frosts (and more to come by the looks).

    Its not everyone's cup of tea admittedly, but its interesting to break a few cold records for a change.

    Yes,interesting,1986,1989,1996 and 1998 all recorded 5 AF in April at Whitby Met office site however 1970 recorded 7 and 1968 recorded 9.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    When I returned to the farm, on the 15th March, the whole place was like a quagmire; and now, less than a month on, it's like a dustbowl! Whatever happened to a 'happy medium'?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: A variety, but nothing too extreme
  • Location: West Midlands

    The second half of April is looking more akin to mid spring. I personally have enjoyed this spring so far with the erratic weather; keeps things interesting imo. And from a meterological point of view, it makes a change to break a cold record rather than a warm or dry one which is often the case. We have certainly had some cold frosty nights this month.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: howth,east dublin city

    Can anyone  help me find the last daily 24hrs uk extremes as  I write them in my diary for last 15 years and seem to have disappeared from a well known website since April 9th. Please help

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The Met Office ones are still working for me:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation

    Edit: no they're not, they were last updated on 11 March 2021, d'oh!

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The University of Reading weather diary is also worth checking out as it gives daily extremes, but so far only up to the end of March as far as I can see:

    http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/diary.html

    It's possible that these may be updated monthly, in which case at some point in May you should be able to get the April extremes from there.  I was surprised by the Met Office's lack of updates though.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    On 11/04/2021 at 20:05, damianslaw said:

    Coming week looks predominantly a dry one for many, could be on for a notably dry April.. but still quite a fair bit to go, last April was very dry, and is often the driest month of the year.. especially in the NW.

    Was just about to post this, the overall weather patterns seem to be getting predictable these last few years, temperatures vary and indeed this year is significantly cooler than last, however, after constant wind, rain and floods over the winter months, April, May and June sees us crying out for rain! This becomming a very real trend here in the west. Pretty sure we didnt get a drop last April or May and this year is setting up the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    This sort of uneventful anticyclonic weather that’s neither warm nor really cold reminds me a little of the prolonged conditions in April 2017 between the warm start and cold spell at the end. That month was also very dry!

    May made up for it but also brought a number of warm or even hot days with some cracking thunderstorms. Fingers crossed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Really annoying again, shallow Cu has bubbled up spreading out into a thin layer of Sc to give 100% infill again. At just 11C and despite no wind its nothing other than cold outside. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: A variety, but nothing too extreme
  • Location: West Midlands

    As others have pointed out, yes the weather is becoming more predictable as of late. Whilst I have enjoyed this spring so far for its erraticness (summer the one day, winter the next), it is indeed starting to become predictable now. The rest of April is going to be almost if not completely bone dry, as well as the whole of May and the first few days of June before becoming more unsettled. I can definitely see that coming.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    Another cloudy afternoon and feeling chilly in the breeze. High pressure? I'd like a refund please 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny weather, thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Really annoying again, shallow Cu has bubbled up spreading out into a thin layer of Sc to give 100% infill again. At just 11C and despite no wind its nothing other than cold outside. 

     

    This is the plague of the northern English climate as well, the default pattern in spring/summer in fact - stable but humid air causing cumulus clouds to form and spread into a layer of stratocrapulus that makes for a cold and cloudy afternoon. It's particularly common with northerlies however, which is why I call them Boretherlies. Southerlies never seem to have this problem with cloud, usually making for much sunnier afternoons.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    37 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

    This is the plague of the northern English climate as well, the default pattern in spring/summer in fact - stable but humid air causing cumulus clouds to form and spread into a layer of stratocrapulus that makes for a cold and cloudy afternoon. It's particularly common with northerlies however, which is why I call them Boretherlies. Southerlies never seem to have this problem with cloud, usually making for much sunnier afternoons.

    Goodness me its actually raining heavily now, really didn't expect to see such heavy showers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yes, I was wrong about the conditions not being conducive to cumulus spreading out into stratocumulus sheets, judging by the satellite images this has indeed happened over a large part of south-east England in particular.  Here in Lincoln it's only partial stratocumulus cover and there's still a fair amount of sunshine, but further south there's somewhat more cloud.  It also looks cloudier in the west with some light showers, and heavy ones locally near the south coast, amusingly enough especially around Exeter, where I was located just a week ago.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    13 hours ago, KTtom said:

    Was just about to post this, the overall weather patterns seem to be getting predictable these last few years, temperatures vary and indeed this year is significantly cooler than last, however, after constant wind, rain and floods over the winter months, April, May and June sees us crying out for rain! This becomming a very real trend here in the west. Pretty sure we didnt get a drop last April or May and this year is setting up the same.

    Yes the dry season is April to mid June in the Lake District nowadays, then we have the wet season rest of the year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

    The dry season on the south coast lasts from now until the end of August. At least it has done here for the last 10 or so years, scorched grass and dusty paths are a recurring theme in summer nowadays. Last 3 summers it certainly has been.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    31 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    The dry season on the south coast lasts from now until the end of August. At least it has done here for the last 10 or so years, scorched grass and dusty paths are a recurring theme in summer nowadays. Last 3 summers it certainly has been.

    Probably a reflection of the fact that summer 2018 was very hot and the last two have produced warm August's. Beforehand the weather tended to break down during the prior decade or so.

    I'm unsure what will happen this summer as we have gained positive upper ocean heat content in the Pacific but most first year moderate Nina's are not single year.

    I lean towards 1989 and 1996 being potential analogues however we have seen faux warm episodes in Spring under the surface be replaced by a second wind for ENSO events over the summer.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Probably a reflection of the fact that summer 2018 was very hot and the last two have produced warm August's. Beforehand the weather tended to break down during the prior decade or so.

    It's funny as summer 2019 was actually just as dry as summer 2018 here if not dryer, 2018 was just more consistently warmer. I tend to cherish summer rains now as they don't happen too often, love a good downpour. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    9 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    It's funny as summer 2019 was actually just as dry as summer 2018 here if not dryer, 2018 was just more consistently warmer. I tend to cherish summer rains now as they don't happen too often, love a good downpour. 

    I tend to agree mostly. Whether it's a cold wet month or hot and thundery the energy involved tends to produce noteworthy downpours as opposed to a few hours of moderate light wind rain every few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS is starting to trend cooler and cooler as we head towards the end of the month, the mean now barely scraps average for a few days here and there but the Ops run is persistently now way the ensemble mean. Looks like increasing chances our high will regress and open the door to another cold spell IMO. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS is starting to trend cooler and cooler as we head towards the end of the month, the mean now barely scraps average for a few days here and there but the Ops run is persistently now way the ensemble mean. Looks like increasing chances our high will regress and open the door to another cold spell IMO. 

    Yes would not be surprised to see another cold northerly airflow before the month is out, signs low pressure and trough wants to develop to our NE heights affected NW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    It really illustrates the importance of where that high pressure is. April 2020 was just as dry with lots of high pressure around and look how different that was! 

    I'll give it another several years before confidently saying Spring is becoming a 'dry season' as 2012 for example wasn't that long ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

     

    I'll give it another several years before confidently saying Spring is becoming a 'dry season' as 2012 for example wasn't that long ago. 

    Indeed, and neither was 2018!

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