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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Coming week looks predominantly a dry one for many, could be on for a notably dry April.. but still quite a fair bit to go, last April was very dry, and is often the driest month of the year.. especially in the NW.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    2 hours ago, markyo said:

    Still looking good for the rest of April, fingers crossed May continues in the same vein, hopefully the up coming Summer is a normal summer, useable, not spoilt by heat and humidity.

    Heat and some humid weather is part and parcel of summer. I like some hot days, and would hope we get a decent summer. Don’t particularly want anything resembling 2007, or 2012. A wet cool summer would be depressing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    We've only had 28.4mm (49%) of rain so far this spring compared to an expected 58.2mm at this point (1991-2020 mean). It doesnt look like we're going to see much in at least the next week. GFS 12z has us on 3mm more to the 25th April.

    This comes after 34.2mm in the whole of Spring 2020.

    There's been a notable decline in spring rainfall here with each updated 30 year average:

    1961-90: 156.5mm
    1971-00: 150.9mm
    1981-10: 142.9mm
    1991-20: 132.9mm

    I wonder if the 2020s will continue this. Certainly looks like this year is continuing the theme.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    22 minutes ago, reef said:

    We've only had 28.4mm (49%) of rain so far this spring compared to an expected 58.2mm at this point (1991-2020 mean). It doesnt look like we're going to see much in at least the next week. GFS 12z has us on 3mm more to the 25th April.

    This comes after 34.2mm in the whole of Spring 2020.

    There's been a notable decline in spring rainfall here with each updated 30 year average:

    1961-90: 156.5mm
    1971-00: 150.9mm
    1981-10: 142.9mm
    1991-20: 132.9mm

    I wonder if the 2020s will continue this. Certainly looks like this year is continuing the theme.
     

    Spring seems to be the dry season, and then summer makes up for it!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: A variety, but nothing too extreme
  • Location: West Midlands
    41 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Coming week looks predominantly a dry one for many, could be on for a notably dry April.. but still quite a fair bit to go, last April was very dry, and is often the driest month of the year.. especially in the NW.

    Rather ironic really when you get the well known phrase 'April showers'. Perhaps one day, the way that most Aprils are going that phrase will cease to exist.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    This is utterly rancid now. Summer better be an absolute stonker after having to endure going on 6 and a half months of winter at this point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    This is utterly rancid now. Summer better be an absolute stonker after having to endure going on 6 and a half months of winter at this point.

    Bods expect too much of April, May is really the start of 'warm' half of year,

    1 May to 31st Oct 'warm' half

    1 Nov to 30th Apr, cool half

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    These conversations pop up every year, and like many things, not enough years follow the same sequence to set any notable trends that I can see.

    Last year had a dry spring (specifically mid March to mid June). 2019 was a variable spring followed by a variable summer. 2018 spring had a wet first two thirds but May was much better and summer was positively Mediterranean. 2017 was variable but April was very dry. Spring 2016 was wet but high summer was pretty dry. Spring and summer 2015 alternated dry and wet months ie April dry, May wet, June dry, July wet... 

    It’s anyone’s guess what will happen year on year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
    4 hours ago, markyo said:

    Still looking good for the rest of April, fingers crossed May continues in the same vein, hopefully the up coming Summer is a normal summer, useable, not spoilt by heat and humidity.

    Well, I half agree with you. 😛 My own preference is for warmth without the humidity, and generally May-June is the best time for that. August tends to have sticky heat that I find much less comfortable. If I were a bigger thunderstorm fan I'd take the trade-off, but as I'm not I'd prefer some nice sunny quiet weather. Some may find that boring, but I'd be delighted!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I really enjoyed today's mixed bag of weather with "April showers", feeling fairly warm in the sunshine in between the showers and out of the breeze, but also some hail, sleet and snow showers, some proper fluffy snow at 8pm tonight (which didn't generally settle, but I did spot a temporary smattering on the grass), and temperatures oscillating between 3C and 8C (down to 1C at 8pm when the snow shower hit).  Some impressive cloud formations too.  I ended up taking quite a number of photographs of the weather today.

    The upcoming outlook also appeals to me with plenty of sunshine, temperatures getting up to near normal by day and it should feel warm in the sun and out of the wind - as long as that anticyclone doesn't drift north and allow an easterly flow to establish widely across England, which could lead to cool grey weather.  At the same time I appreciate that many gardeners may be concerned after the very warm end of March and this ongoing spell of below-average temperatures, so take care with those plants.

    I note that this April hasn't really been that cold so far relative to the 1961-90 average, just 0.8C below the 61-90 average for the CET.  The fact that many are describing the recent weather with highly negative terms reflects a mix of the shifting climate (April has warmed by 1C so the recent weather is 2C colder than what people have recently been used to in April) as well as the desire for winter to be followed by a sudden flip to a warm spring rather than a slow, erratic transition from winter to summer.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

    Dry here too. It's ironic that April often seems the least showery month of the year.

    I don't feel like the weather has been tooo bad down here recently. Cool/cold, but no maximum below 8C. Tuesday felt coldest with temps varying between 6-8C during the afternoon, windy, and a few sleet/graupel showers (an early morning snow shower also clipped us). Several slight air frosts (lowest -2.8C), but some cloud prevented the lowest potential temps. 

    Nowhere is the average April maximum 15-16C though, only some lowland areas in the south had  >13C average maxima in April for 1971-2000.
    More widespread for the 1981-2010 average, but at Bournemouth Airport it's 13.5C, and London Heathrow 14.2C. So you could assume that's the average for about the middle of the month, and only towards the end of the month might the average touch 15-16C.
    MaxTemp_Average_1971-2000_4.gifMaxTemp_Average_1981-2010_4.gif

    I guess if we are happy to lap up those spells where maxima approach 10C+ above average, like the end of March, they have to be balanced out somehow.

    I’ve got a feeling there’s going to be quite a big jump for 91-20 averages in April. We’re replacing the cool April’s of the 80s with the 11-20 decade which averages pretty much 15c here and 16c at Heathrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yes Roger J Smith confirmed that the 1991-2020 CET average for April is going to be either 8.9 or 9.0 depending on the rounding system that the Met Office uses.  For comparison, the 1961-90 average was 7.9C, for 1971-2000 it was 8.1C, and for 1981-2010 it was 8.5C, so there's been a big increase in the rate of warming of April recently after a period of relatively sluggish warming in the 1990s and early 2000s.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    26 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    I really enjoyed today's mixed bag of weather with "April showers", feeling fairly warm in the sunshine in between the showers and out of the breeze, but also some hail, sleet and snow showers, some proper fluffy snow at 8pm tonight (which didn't generally settle, but I did spot a temporary smattering on the grass), and temperatures oscillating between 3C and 8C (down to 1C at 8pm when the snow shower hit).  Some impressive cloud formations too.  I ended up taking quite a number of photographs of the weather today.

    The upcoming outlook also appeals to me with plenty of sunshine, temperatures getting up to near normal by day and it should feel warm in the sun and out of the wind - as long as that anticyclone doesn't drift north and allow an easterly flow to establish widely across England, which could lead to cool grey weather.  At the same time I appreciate that many gardeners may be concerned after the very warm end of March and this ongoing spell of below-average temperatures, so take care with those plants.

    I note that this April hasn't really been that cold so far relative to the 1961-90 average, just 0.8C below the 61-90 average for the CET.  The fact that many are describing the recent weather with highly negative terms reflects a mix of the shifting climate (April has warmed by 1C so the recent weather is 2C colder than what people have recently been used to in April) as well as the desire for winter to be followed by a sudden flip to a warm spring rather than a slow, erratic transition from winter to summer.

    Good post, the 0.8 degree below figure is against the rolling average, not final figure, currently running about 2 degrees below that which is notably below..

    Someone said we expect too much from April, we've had some very mild Aprils at times in recent years, and this has perhaps skewed people's expectations from the month. We are in the colder half of the year still, May is when the warm up begins.. October on average is milder than April, and many a time November has been milder than April. Its the length of daylight and sun strength that lulls people into thinking April should be warmer than it often is in reality. Plus northerlies and easterlies are far more likely in April, the arctic is very cold still, and the continent only slowly warming, if the easterly is sourced from Russia or Scandanavia then expect it to be cold still.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    October on average is milder than April

    I remember being caught out by this in my childhood - in 1999 I noted in my weather diaries, "October was warmer than April", as if it was somehow unusual!  I also remember being surprised when I saw snow on 18 April 1995 (which was the first time I observed snow in April after I had started taking weather records), and again when I saw it repeatedly in the second week of April 1998 (despite the fact that I'd also seen snow on 6 May 1997).  However, I recall that by the northerly outbreak of 13-15 April 1999 I had accepted that snow in April wasn't that unusual, at least in north-east England (where I was living at the time).

    Indeed, although April is warmer on average than November and has fewer days with snow lying, the average frequency of sleet/snow falling is a little higher in April than in November in most parts of the UK.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    I remember being caught out by this in my childhood - in 1999 I noted in my weather diaries, "October was warmer than April", as if it was somehow unusual!  I also remember being surprised when I saw snow on 18 April 1995 (which was the first time I observed snow in April after I had started taking weather records), and again when I saw it repeatedly in the second week of April 1998 (despite the fact that I'd also seen snow on 6 May 1997).  However, I recall that by the northerly outbreak of 13-15 April 1999 I had accepted that snow in April wasn't that unusual, at least in north-east England (where I was living at the time).

    Indeed, although April is warmer on average than November and has fewer days with snow lying, the average frequency of sleet/snow falling is a little higher in April than in November in most parts of the UK.

    I'm always more surprised when April doesn't deliver a cold northerly or easterly feed at some point, more so than November, sometimes even December, as I expect a break from the atlantic in April much more than I do than in November and December - cold spells then seem more of a bonus, a much more bigger win against the might of the atlantic, in April not half as surprising!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    5 hours ago, markyo said:

    hopefully the up coming Summer is a normal summer, useable, not spoilt by heat and humidity.

    Same rhetoric at the same point in the year..

    Something is beginning to click now, though.. Why do your weather preferences include the word "hot" in them?

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I'm always more surprised when April doesn't deliver a cold northerly or easterly feed at some point, more so than November, sometimes even December, as I expect a break from the atlantic in April much more than I do than in November and December - cold spells then seem more of a bonus, a much more bigger win against the might of the atlantic, in April not half as surprising!

    Which made November and December 2010 even more unusual.   Had never seen such sustained cold  in those months in 50 odd years of watching the weather up till then. Always found that prior to that that the average date for snow to arrive here was just before New Year.

    Edited by Northernlights
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Problem with so many spring northerlies, especially further into spring, is how anticyclonic they become. At least in winter, the reason for the northerly is often a passing low ushering in a stronger push of Arctic air so wider snowfall. I can't help but feel that spring northerlies, dictated more by retrogressing highs, 9 times out of 10 disappoint for many, and are mostly dry affairs unless lucky enough to get a train of showers. Funnily enough, the northerly/easterly first ten days of January this year end up a winter version of this current spell.

    I must caveat what I say though with the fact I've always lived in the south - so northerlies pack less of a punch with each passing week out of winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Having lived in Exeter for the past six and a half years, I don't think it's a case of spring northerlies being more anticyclonic, more that they especially tend not to deliver much for the south and especially south-west of the UK.  Even the unusually potent one we had on 5/6 April only gave Exeter a snow flurry at 7am on 6 April followed by sleety showers later on.  It's probably down to a combination of factors - being sheltered and in the south, and seeing less showers being generated over the Irish Sea and heading down through Wales into the West Country, due to the air masses not being as cold relative to the seas, especially during the daytime.  

    In April we get a greater emphasis on showers being generated from solar heating during the daytime, but these tend to develop mainly in central and eastern parts of the UK due to high pressure being closest to western areas when we get a northerly regime. 

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Having lived in Exeter for the past six and a half years, I don't think it's a case of spring northerlies being more anticyclonic, more that they especially tend not to deliver much for the south and especially south-west of the UK.  Even the unusually potent one we had on 5/6 April only gave Exeter a snow flurry at 7am on 6 April followed by sleety showers later on.  It's probably down to a combination of factors - being sheltered and in the south, and seeing less showers being generated over the Irish Sea and heading down through Wales into the West Country, due to the air masses not being as cold relative to the seas, especially during the daytime.  

    In April we get a greater emphasis on showers being generated from solar heating during the daytime, but these tend to develop mainly in central and eastern parts of the UK due to high pressure being closest to western areas when we get a northerly regime. 

    Well aware of all that... my point being that because they're more anticyclonic, what you mention is more of an issue in the first place.

    I can also imagine down there that very much being the case, but even the one we've just had, despite potency, was generally anticyclonic compared to say early April 2008 or the 1998-2000 succession of April northerlies which all delivered much more here. Even the 12-hour northerly on 08th April 2005 brought more wintry showers than this week...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The summer prospects are interesting. If we look at the fact that upper ocean heat content in the ENSO region is now positive and assume that our choice is a persistence of neutral then it looks like I like 2001, 1996, 1989, 1985.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    The summer prospects are interesting. If we look at the fact that upper ocean heat content in the ENSO region is now positive and assume that our choice is a persistence of neutral then it looks like I like 2001, 1996, 1989, 1985.

    What  a mixed bag of summers, 2001 had its moments but overall nothing special, 1996 was decent with a fair amount of dry sunny warm weather but nothing exceptional, 1989 was very good indeed with a great July, 1985 less said the better!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Some good storms in 2001 and 1996, particularly in July and August. I presume in 1989 too...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    1989 wasn't a particularly thundery summer overall, well short of both 1996 and 2001 in terms of overall thundery activity, but there were scattered notable events, especially the "Halifax storm" on 19 May 1989, and fairly widespread thunderstorms around 13 June, 6-7 July and 23 July.

    1996 is a summer that I remember particularly fondly from my childhood, it had some of almost everything, there were anticyclonic spells, heatwaves, thundery breakdowns and cooler changeable spells.  Many perceived it as a relatively cool summer because of the way it suffered by comparison with that of the previous year, but for much of England the mean maximum temperature for summer 1996 was rather above the long-term average, partially offset by cool nights, and most areas were drier and sunnier than average as well.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    12 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

    Dry here too. It's ironic that April often seems the least showery month of the year.

    I don't feel like the weather has been tooo bad down here recently. Cool/cold, but no maximum below 8C. Tuesday felt coldest with temps varying between 6-8C during the afternoon, windy, and a few sleet/graupel showers (an early morning snow shower also clipped us). Several slight air frosts (lowest -2.8C), but some cloud prevented the lowest potential temps. 

    Nowhere is the average April maximum 15-16C though, only some lowland areas in the south had  >13C average maxima in April for 1971-2000.
    More widespread for the 1981-2010 average, but at Bournemouth Airport it's 13.5C, and London Heathrow 14.2C. So you could assume that's the average for about the middle of the month, and only towards the end of the month might the average touch 15-16C.
    MaxTemp_Average_1971-2000_4.gifMaxTemp_Average_1981-2010_4.gif

    I guess if we are happy to lap up those spells where maxima approach 10C+ above average, like the end of March, they have to be balanced out somehow.

    Yes it is. Here in central London (Greenwich) average April max is 14.7C with 1991-2020 average it’s definitely over 15C+ now. 

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