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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.


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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

    Been a nice few days here with lots of sunshine with frosty mornings, now to enjoy a brief bit of weather action in the form of strong winds and some heavy rain before things calm down again. Love months with varied weather conditions.

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    I oft said, during the time I was a regular poster in this forum, that the the words 'upgrade' and 'downgrade' should be placed in the swear filter sine die. They are subjective and superfluous and in

    Yes indeed. It gets forgotten that there are people who view and partake of this site who are actually also ordinary members of the public and not just 'weather enthusiasts'.  Its good to be a weather

    One of the best April day's weather for sometime.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Meteociel Outage: Terrible fire at one of the data-centers

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: I love a variety
  • Location: West Midlands

    I think I'd rather have cool and unsettled weather during March, otherwise warm sunny weather will feel like a bit of a waste. I think about early to mid April is around the right time for the warm sunny weather to get started, but not every day though as this too will end up feeling like a waste. It would be nice to save the majority of warm sunny weather for May onwards when the sun is strong. And a warm sunny spring often (but not always) leads to a mediocre or even poor summer.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    On 06/03/2021 at 13:32, Arctic Hare said:

    March so often seems to take people (including me sometimes) by surprise. Meteorologically it's now spring, so we condition ourselves to expect springlike weather... but the early weeks, at least, are really late winter. I think I remember reading that early December is on average milder than early March. The only definite advantage is the now noticeably longer daylight hours.

    Another chilly, grey nothing of a day here: barely above 5 °C and only the briefest glimmers of brightness. Yes it's too much to hope for a repeat of last year's spectacular spring weather, but I hope we don't have to wait until April for some more cheerful weather with sunshine and temps well into the teens at least.

    Yes first two thirds of March on average probably colder than first half of December. Despite strengthening sun and extra daylight, it still feels very much like winter.

    Same thing happens in September, oh its autumn, when in an average year it takes until the last third for things to feel autumnal, first two thirds often milder than first half June. Its the lag effect. 

    We've had many a colder March than December. Indeed sometimes colder weeks in April than an average week in December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Spring gales overnight - fancy them being stronger than anything in autumn and winter. 

    You can pretty much rely on March to bring a good gale at some point. I think only 3 out of the 2010s didn’t produce any.

    Likewise, there’s normally at least one high pressure spell. It would be nice to have a warmer high by the final third of the month a la 2003.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Spring gales overnight - fancy them being stronger than anything in autumn and winter. 

    You can pretty much rely on March to bring a good gale at some point. I think only 3 out of the 2010s didn’t produce any.

    Likewise, there’s normally at least one high pressure spell. It would be nice to have a warmer high by the final third of the month a la 2003.

    A repeat of the March 2012 high would be even better, although only if we could guarantee there would be no repeat of summer 2012. There have been quite a few memorable spells of high pressure in March over the last decade or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    51 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    A repeat of the March 2012 high would be even better, although only if we could guarantee there would be no repeat of summer 2012. There have been quite a few memorable spells of high pressure in March over the last decade or two.

    Indeed, although no longer than a week please. As beautiful as it was at the time, the following four months will haunt me for years to come.

    The reason I mentioned 2003 is that is was a very episodic spring that led to a great summer. Plenty of warm sunny spells interspersed with less settled and sometimes chillier weather. A spring I have fond memories of.

    As you say, I can remember a few high pressure spells later in March over the years. 2019, 2012, 2011,mid 2009 and 2003 come to mind for lengthy sunshine. Likewise, 2010 had a two week cool/cold anticyclonic first half, and 2016 had a chilly anticylonic spell mid month, sandwiched between a stormy start and finish.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    Indeed, although no longer than a week please. As beautiful as it was at the time, the following four months will haunt me for years to come.

    The reason I mentioned 2003 is that is was a very episodic spring that led to a great summer. Plenty of warm sunny spells interspersed with less settled and sometimes chillier weather. A spring I have fond memories of.

    As you say, I can remember a few high pressure spells later in March over the years. 2019, 2012, 2011,mid 2009 and 2003 come to mind for lengthy sunshine. Likewise, 2010 had a two week cool/cold anticyclonic first half, and 2016 had a chilly anticylonic spell mid month, sandwiched between a stormy start and finish.

     

    I agree that 2003 was an excellent month for warm sunshine- it was pretty consistent all the way through as well.

    2005 is another one to add to your list- there was a very nice warm, settled spell mid-month. In fact the whole 2nd half was pretty warm. I also have vague memories of the 2nd half of March 2002 being sunny and fairly warm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    When I was growing up in the 1990s there were quite a few warm sunny anticyclonic spells in the Marches but not on the scale of late March 2012.  Perhaps the one exception was 16-18 March 1990, which, though not as widespread as the March 2012 instance, saw temperatures into the low 20s Celsius in many areas from a southerly flow, and there were very sunny spells for many around 24-27 March 1993, 19-24 March 1995 and during the last few days of March 1997, which resulted in an early warm sunny Easter.

    March 1994 stood out as a particularly windy, westerly-dominated March from my childhood, with gales in the first week, around midmonth, on the 23rd and again in the last few days.  17 March 1995 was also very windy.  March 1995 was my favourite, as it had quite a bit of "cold zonality" with westerlies producing snow and hail showers at times, interspersed with a couple of warm anticyclonic interludes (10th-13th and the aforementioned 19th-24th), and a northerly on the 27th.  But I don't remember much windy Atlantic-driven weather in the Marches of 1996 to 2003.  March 1996 stuck out for how cold and dull it was, especially as Tyneside had well above average sunshine in the Marches of 1994, 1995 and 1997.

    I remember March 2002 for mild changeable weather until around the 25th and then a switch to warm sunny weather with high pressure, which raised the month's sunshine totals above average except in parts of the south.  March 2005's warm sunny weather only lasted a couple of days or so, I recall the last third being warm but very dull.  I remember the fine spell of mid-March 2009 well, but not so much March 2011 - maybe that one got dwarfed by March 2012.  March 2007 hasn't yet been mentioned, but that had a fair amount of dry sunny weather for most parts as well, with a brief northerly interruption on the 18th-20th.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    March 2003 is generally considered the best March of that decade. This decade i think most people away from the east coast agree that 2012 was the best March because it had much higher sunshine totals for most places than 2017 (possibly higher maxima too). 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    In terms of my spring thoughts as i have not provided them.

    ONI - La Nina has persisted through Q1 (will be weak or neutral-negative during Q2/Q3)

    Best matches are 1989, 1999, 2008 and 2011 (also 1971 and 1974) - First year. 

    QBO -  +QBO is weakening and is now the weakest since August on a standardised basis and should enter an easterly phase during Q2 or Q3.

    Best matches are 1979, 1981, 1988, 1991, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2016.

    PDO - PDO appears to have entered a negative state since late 2019 again with persistant negative values (albeit the Victoria mode is often positive dilluting its impact when negative). Negative values are likely to persist during Q2/Q3.

    Matches to the ONI and QBO years above are 1971, 1974, 1991, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 

    We see that there is a fairly strong ONI-PDO sync (more evidence that this will restrengthen later in the year imo) with 2011 being the standout when the QBO is modelled as well (i don't have pre-79 standardised QBO data so 1971 and 1974 may also end up strong matches). That said here is what we get for Apr-Sep from the years above (using the 1981-2010 average and defining average as within 1C). 

    April..

    5 close to average, 2 warm - Bias actually seems a little cooler than average here in the high 7's. 

    May..

    5 near average, 2 warm - 1999 and 2008, yes please

    June..

    2 cold, 5 near average - Bias again appears to be a little below average but its notable than 1991 and 1971 were a little above 12C.

    July..

    3 cold, 3 near average, 1 warm - As with other months, 1999 being the exception

    August..

    2 cold, 5 near average - A repeat of last August unlikely?

    September..

    4 near average, 1 cold, 2 warm - A better signal for early Autumn to stay mild

     

    All fun and games of course

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

     

    I agree that 2003 was an excellent month for warm sunshine- it was pretty consistent all the way through as well.

    2005 is another one to add to your list- there was a very nice warm, settled spell mid-month. In fact the whole 2nd half was pretty warm. I also have vague memories of the 2nd half of March 2002 being sunny and fairly warm.

    Yes the switch around in March 2005 was quite notable. Wintry showers on the second weekend then nearly 20C on the following weekend. It was changeable overall though, at least down here. The warmer weather coincided with a very early start to the easter holidays, and I distinctly recall thunder and lightning on the 23rd and the wettest day of the year came on the 29th - an absolute soaker. Still... an enjoyable March overall given the snowier weather in the opening days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    In terms of my spring thoughts as i have not provided them.

    ONI - La Nina has persisted through Q1 (will be weak or neutral-negative during Q2/Q3)

    Best matches are 1989, 1999, 2008 and 2011 (also 1971 and 1974) - First year. 

    QBO -  +QBO is weakening and is now the weakest since August on a standardised basis and should enter an easterly phase during Q2 or Q3.

    Best matches are 1979, 1981, 1988, 1991, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2016.

    PDO - PDO appears to have entered a negative state since late 2019 again with persistant negative values (albeit the Victoria mode is often positive dilluting its impact when negative). Negative values are likely to persist during Q2/Q3.

    Matches to the ONI and QBO years above are 1971, 1974, 1991, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 

    We see that there is a fairly strong ONI-PDO sync (more evidence that this will restrengthen later in the year imo) with 2011 being the standout when the QBO is modelled as well (i don't have pre-79 standardised QBO data so 1971 and 1974 may also end up strong matches). That said here is what we get for Apr-Sep from the years above (using the 1981-2010 average and defining average as within 1C). 

    April..

    5 close to average, 2 warm - Bias actually seems a little cooler than average here in the high 7's. 

    May..

    5 near average, 2 warm - 1999 and 2008, yes please

    June..

    2 cold, 5 near average - Bias again appears to be a little below average but its notable than 1991 and 1971 were a little above 12C.

    July..

    3 cold, 3 near average, 1 warm - As with other months, 1999 being the exception

    August..

    2 cold, 5 near average - A repeat of last August unlikely?

    September..

    4 near average, 1 cold, 2 warm - A better signal for early Autumn to stay mild

     

    All fun and games of course

     

    April 2011 was exceptionally warm and dry, on a par with last April. 

    1989, 1999, 2008 all brought northerly blasts..

    I like a bit of early warmth in April, not bothered about it in March, too early to benefit from it. However, I'm always nervous when we have lengthy warm sunny weather in April,not a good omen for the summer holiday period at least, think 2018 and last year, 1987 and 2011 good examples as well, 2007  as well.

    Warm sunny dry weather best in May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    Dire here currently and a dire outlook in the charts. Looks revolting. Roll on May. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    Dire here currently and a dire outlook in the charts. Looks revolting. Roll on May. 

    Don't mind in quarantine! roll on April 12th for obvious reasons

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    still 1 month of borefest crap to go! expect from mid April to be very wet

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    The Atlantic storms arrived here overnight, blowing a hoolie and the rain lashing against the windows woke me up. Showery and blustery now.

    771D673A-14A0-49E2-94F1-475D1137231B.jpeg

    20ADD6EB-51A8-453D-AE2C-AEE9E43A2CB7.jpeg

    55371C3A-30FD-4DE9-B0CB-23D2EC353792.jpeg

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    We had an early glimmer of spring late in February, but too early to feel like Spring, alas still in winter mode, adding credence to my view that Spring doesn't start going until the equinox 21 March, and bursts through once clocks go forward. March can be a trying month in this regard, more so this year.. by March we've had over 4 months of dismal dark weather and need the sunshine! Come Easter everything will feel very different. Just a couple of weeks or so to go.. until that switch occurs.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    Not keen at all on the nearish-term outlook. I'm just not interested in a possible cold easterly in the second half of March, which isn't going to produce anything around here but nasty chilly conditions and grey skies. A few days ago we had a couple of afternoons here which may not have been all that warm (say 10 °C) but had light winds and sunshine. I'd be okay with that. But it's been windy and chilly for days now, and I've had my fill of it. Roll on days in the mid-teens with a genuinely warm feel, even if the price is the usual April showers I'll take it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Seasonal Trim said:

    Wish the Easterly trend would 🤬 off!

    Not one bit interested in cold now. Roll on the warm up!

    Unfortunately from mid March through until early June, easterlies and northerlies are on average at their yearly maxim peak, when the atlantic is at its quietest, many such a period can be more dominated by northerly and easterly airstreams than westerly.. affecting the east in particular, hence the west tends to see best conditions of the year, dry, sunny and sometimes warm - far better than high summer on average!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Unfortunately from mid March through until early June, easterlies and northerlies are on average at their yearly maxim peak, when the atlantic is at its quietest, many such a period can be more dominated by northerly and easterly airstreams than westerly.. affecting the east in particular, hence the west tends to see best conditions of the year, dry, sunny and sometimes warm - far better than high summer on average!

    Yes easterlies can be very welcome on this side of the country in spring- however not the kind of easterly that we may get next week.

    If we can get uppers above 5C under high pressure with an easterly it can be very pleasant indeed in the west during spring. Areas like the Lake District and the west coast of Wales often do especially well in those setups from late March onwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Yes easterlies can be very welcome on this side of the country in spring- however not the kind of easterly that we may get next week.

    If we can get uppers above 5C under high pressure with an easterly it can be very pleasant indeed in the west during spring. Areas like the Lake District and the west coast of Wales often do especially well in those setups from late March onwards.

    Easterlies yuck no thanks, worst setup possible here, exposed to north sea mist, often takes until 2pm to clear, even then, never feels that warm

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 11/03/2021 at 23:36, damianslaw said:

    April 2011 was exceptionally warm and dry, on a par with last April. 

    April 2011 was the warmest on record with a CET 11.8C, beating the previous record set in 2007.  It had a real summerlike feel to it!  April last year was very warm and settled until the final week when it turned much colder and unsettled, which pegged the CET back to a cooler but still very warm 10.4C.

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