Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[summer blizzard]

I see many people hope casting for summer based on cool to warm flips but it’s worth actually looking at sub 13.5C June’s.

2012

1991

1987

1985

1981

1977

1972

1971

1956

1954

For all the hopecasting the months people speak about ended up closer to average and the actual cool June’s were normally followed by very poor summers.

 

[Don]

15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For all the hopecasting the months people speak about ended up closer to average and the actual cool June’s were normally followed by very poor summers.

The only example I can really think of which quickly flipped from cool to warm was summer 2013, albeit June had a CET of 13.6C, so not quite sub 13.5C.

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I see many people hope casting for summer based on cool to warm flips but it’s worth actually looking at sub 13.5C June’s.

2012

1991

1987

1985

1981

1977

1972

1971

1956

1954

For all the hopecasting the months people speak about ended up closer to average and the actual cool June’s were normally followed by very poor summers.

 

Also with the exception of 1983 which had cool April & Mays no summers following really extended cold spells ie a couple of months or more have warm summers. 

[Britneyfan]

Think I’ve accepted a cooler summer now, if not I have become paranoid over the models and watching for any signs of a flip to warm! I will just be happy for Max temps in June to reach 18 then 20 July and 21 august 

I know that’s disappointing but it’s still warm at least; anything above is now a bonus as far as I’m concerned  

[B87]

3 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

I’m going to guess that the warmest day of the year will be 24° in the London area sometime in July or august, especially if this below average weather continues, yes we have had a few days above average here and there, which is why 24° might be possible in London as the average is 23 July and august 

Kew Gardens saw 24.5c in March.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, B87 said:

Kew Gardens saw 24.5c in March.

Even if we do have a cooler summer this year, I will be surprised if somewhere in London and the south east does not record 32C at some point.

[B87]

Just now, Don said:

Even if we do have a cooler summer this year, I will be surprised if somewhere in London and the south east does not record 32C at some point.

I can't see us even reaching 30c at this rate. A combination of June 1991, July 1980 and August 2008 to come I think.

[Don]

13 minutes ago, B87 said:

I can't see us even reaching 30c at this rate. A combination of June 1991, July 1980 and August 2008 to come I think.

Possible but too early to call at the moment.

[Tuxedo]

All this High level blocking through the whole of April and into May. Fantastic winter Synoptics wasted. Its hard not to imagine what the weather would be like if this was happening in January. So frustrating.

[SummerShower]

9 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Both 1920 and 1962 recorded Maximums of 27.8 deg.

The  last sub 30 deg was 1993 with 29.7 deg

The lowest was 1879 at 26.8 deg [records since 1875]

Also 1974, max 27.0 highest all year

[SummerShower]

7 hours ago, B87 said:

I can't see us even reaching 30c at this rate. A combination of June 1991, July 1980 and August 2008 to come I think.

I think a back loaded summer, like 1991, with a poor june, avg July and a good august.  Seem to remember the may of that year being poor as well

[weatherguru14]

What's the difference between cool and cold weather this time of year when mentioned by forecasters? about 00.1c??

Its   COLD not cool 

[weatherguru14]

And another thing.. Why does the Daily Express continue to wilfully lie about the weather?? is it purely to sell newspapers? 

They have been doing it for years . 24c in one article here. 

[B87]

Just now, weatherguru14 said:

And another thing.. Why does the Daily Express continue to wilfully lie about the weather?? is it purely to sell newspapers? 

They have been doing it for years . 24c in one article here. 

Because they were mentioning the weather. They lie about everything else too!

This May continues to be an unusable disaster, consistently 3-4c below average so far, same again for the next week. Surely by the law of averages we would expect to see 20-25c at some point?

[markyo]

8 minutes ago, B87 said:

his May continues to be an unusable disaster,

In what way unusable?

[weatherguru14]

I know Leeds is 2/3 c lower than London... but even here you'd expect  17/18c now and then.. not 9/10c with heavy showers for weeks on end.. if  I had money I'd seriously consider moving somewhere warmer. because our climate can be ultra depressing 

I don't think I  could cope emotionally with another cold and wet summer.. I know that's a bit OTT.But we want our fair share on nice weather.. I dont expect a summer like 2018 every year..but a  Summer of some description would be nice. 

[B87]

8 minutes ago, markyo said:

In what way unusable?

Not being able to sit outside in the shade without it feeling like March once there is any sign of a breeze. Only been able to wear short sleeves twice, when normally it's standard at this time of year.

I average just over 100 days of 20c+ per year. Only another 6 weeks until the half way point and we are currently on 2 days.

Edited May 15, 2021 by B87

[B87]

6 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

I know Leeds is 2/3 c lower than London... but even here you'd expect  17/18c now and then.. not 9/10c with heavy showers for weeks on end.. if  I had money I'd seriously consider moving somewhere warmer. because our climate can be ultra depressing 

I don't think I  could cope emotionally with another cold and wet summer.. I know that's a bit OTT.But we want our fair share on nice weather.. I dont expect a summer like 2018 every year..but a  Summer of some description would be nice. 

We are overdue a long run of sunny weather. Last summer was cloudy and wet, and then we just had the dullest October-March period on record. Surely it will even out at some point.

[markyo]

18 minutes ago, B87 said:

Not being able to sit outside in the shade without it feeling like March once there is any sign of a breeze. Only been able to wear short sleeves twice, when normally it's standard at this time of year.

This is what i find fascinating, how folk feel the weather totally differently. for me May has been t shirt and shorts, no coat,jacket etc. But add 10c and you'd be comfortable and i would be moaning! Certainly wouldn't be sitting out in it like i have been this month.

Edited May 15, 2021 by markyo

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

We are overdue a long run of sunny weather. Last summer was cloudy and wet, and then we just had the dullest October-March period on record. Surely it will even out at some point.

To be fair, I feel like between 2018 & early 2020 we were spoilt by a run of very sunny months. Winter 2017/18 was very sunny, as was May through July. Sept. & Oct. didn't seem bad either. Then 2019 had a fair share of sunshine in the early part of the year, then of course the exceptionally sunny Spring 2020. I feel like we were overdue a very dull period & low & behold we've got one.

[Scorcher]

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I see many people hope casting for summer based on cool to warm flips but it’s worth actually looking at sub 13.5C June’s.

2012

1991

1987

1985

1981

1977

1972

1971

1956

1954

For all the hopecasting the months people speak about ended up closer to average and the actual cool June’s were normally followed by very poor summers.

 

But we're not in June yet? It's over 2 weeks away!

Very premature to be predicting a sub 13.5C June. It's only May 15th! 

I don't think there has been any hopecasting about this- I think people have just been looking at years where there was a flip in late May- and it does happen.

2003 is a classic example. I distinctly remember feeling it was never going to warm up after a very boring, cool month. Once it flipped, we never really looked back.

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

 I feel like we were overdue a very dull period & low & behold we've got one.

We've already had it though- it's been dull since last October mostly.

[B87]

Just now, LetItSnow! said:

To be fair, I feel like between 2018 & early 2020 we were spoilt by a run of very sunny months. Winter 2017/18 was very sunny, as was May through July. Sept. & Oct. didn't seem bad either. Then 2019 had a fair share of sunshine in the early part of the year, then of course the exceptionally sunny Spring 2020. I feel like we were overdue a very dull period & low & behold we've got one.

The sunny spells in summer 2018 and spring 2020 weren't 6 months long though. 2018 also had an incredibly gloomy start and end, the summer of 2020 was consistently cloudier than normal. The last sunny month before April was September 2020, before that it was May 2020, a year ago!

[LetItSnow!]

Just now, B87 said:

The sunny spells in summer 2018 and spring 2020 weren't 6 months long though. 2018 also had an incredibly gloomy start and end, the summer of 2020 was consistently cloudier than normal. The last sunny month before April was September 2020, before that it was May 2020, a year ago!

Without meaning to derail, even though Mar/Apr. were dull, I do remember Feb. 2018 being one of the sunniest Februaries ever recorded & the winter overall having high sunshine totals. Anyway, my point was only to say that we were overdue such a period & here we are. However, like most people, I love sunshine too so to have a sunny summer would be glorious. Sunny & cool would suit well, but they seem hard to come by.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, markyo said:

This is what i find fascinating, how folk feel the weather totally differently. for me May has been t shirt and shorts, no coat,jacket etc. But add 10c and you'd be comfortable and would be moaning! Certainly wouldn't be sitting out in it like i have been this month.

Work trousers and tank tops, for me -- and my suntan is coming along nicely!