Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, HellItsHot said:

....but Saturday, which was looking alright, is now terrible. 
 

I’ve never wanted some warmth as much I do now. 

Was it? I've had Saturday down as a washout for days now!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking over some recent comments, I decided to check out my old photos from April/May 2013 (in a spring that was consistently cold even relative to the old 1961-1990 average) and yes, for example in this picture from the University of East Anglia, Norwich, on 2 May 2013, some of the trees were only just starting to come into leaf. 

An indication of the warming climate is the observation that Spring 2021 has so far been close to the 1961-1990 average, with the warm March and cold April almost exactly counterbalancing each other, though the cold weather occurring later in the season means that vegetation is probably currently running behind the 1961-1990 average.  I'm left wondering how backward things would've been in early May 1979, following a cold winter and March, a near average April (relative to 1961-1990) but with wintry showers early and late in the month, and then an unusually cold snowy start to May.  1917 and 1951 are other years that were unusually cold up to this point in the year.

One thing that sticks out from Roger J Smith's CET analysis is that the first four months of the year have warmed faster than every other month apart from November, warming by about 1C between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 (whereas the annual mean has gone up by just 0.7-0.8C).  Thus, a colder spring will tend to particularly stick out.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[al78]

10 hours ago, B87 said:

There has been one example of a shocker start to May, with the month recovering to average temps in the 2nd half. That was May 2012. The summer after was probably the worst in living memory.

That May had a beautiful last weekend, hot and sunny, which would have been the bank holiday weekend but the Jubilee shifted it to the following weekend, which was one of the worst summer weekends possible without being destructive.

[AderynCoch]

8 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

An indication of the warming climate is the observation that Spring 2021 has so far been close to the 1961-1990 average, with the warm March and cold April almost exactly counterbalancing each other, though the cold weather occurring later in the season means that vegetation is probably currently running behind the 1961-1990 average.  I'm left wondering how backward things would've been in early May 1979, following a cold winter and March, a near average April (relative to 1961-1990) but with wintry showers early and late in the month, and then an unusually cold snowy start to May.  1917 and 1951 are other years that were unusually cold up to this point in the year.

Try to imagine what 1740 must have felt like up to this point. 

[stewfox]

Spring has arrived finally 5 May . Last year hot tub was in full use.

[Relativistic]

Graupel shower currently.

[Nick L]

April showers have arrived a month late it seems.

[Nick L]

5.5C in the middle of the afternoon in May. I'll say no more!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

5.5C in the middle of the afternoon in May. I'll say no more!

it's okay, be warmer in 7 and 8 months, with westerlies and rain at 10 degrees

[Azazel]

It’s absolutely bitter out there.

[B87]

Yep, May should be a month where you can wear a t-shirt and be comfortable even in the shade. This month feels like early March. Outside of direct sun and in the slightest breeze, it's icy cold. 

 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, B87 said:

Yep, May should be a month where you can wear a t-shirt and be comfortable even in the shade. This month feels like early March. Outside of direct sun and in the slightest breeze, it's icy cold. 

 

Not sure I agree with that @B87: Up until recently, May was definitely not a tee-shirt month -- I think we've just been spoiled, by a run of gooduns!

Edited May 5, 2021 by General Cluster

[B87]

14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not sure I agree with that @B87: Up until recently, May was definitely not a tee-shirt month -- I think we've just been spoiled, by a run of gooduns!

18c with light winds is definitely comfortable in a t shirt.

Even excluding the couple of warm Mays we've had recently in 2018 and 2020 with 20c+ average highs.

Edited May 5, 2021 by B87

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I was in the office this afternoon and it went spookily dark about 14:30. The wind got up and I thought the hurricane force gusts were gonna take the roof off. Then it started snowing horizontally and the temperature was a heady 5c.  How much more of this steaming pile of grotesque excrement do we have to endure. Late spring? I've been warmer on Boxing Day. 

[Guest]

Couple of thundery showers today but it’s not fun. Temps fell to 6c this afternoon in the rain showing just how cold the airmass is. Saturday looks a write off and looks like next week we are swapping cold and awful for less cold and awful. 

[audiotech]

I enjoyed a couple of classic thundery April (May) showers today, not had much of that weather type this spring. Torrential rain and hail. Didn't enjoy the 7c of the remaining afternoon that followed though. The tarmac surfaces were steaming nicely once UV level 6 sunshine got to work between the showers, nice to watch.

Edited May 5, 2021 by audiotech

[Man With Beard]

Well this is a truly horrific spring now. Reminds me of July 2012 when we got used to temperatures 5-10C degrees below normal day in day out. We really should be seeing 16-20C on a regular basis by now. That sounds like a heatwave at the moment. Looking ahead on the ECM, we look absolutely trapped. 

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Not sure I agree with that @B87: Up until recently, May was definitely not a tee-shirt month -- I think we've just been spoiled, by a run of gooduns!

Yes i have to agree in recent times we have had many more warm Mays than average[in the long term] or cold ones.I think some of those commenting on May being cold would have been shocked if we were still in the 80s.

[hillbilly]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Well this is a truly horrific spring now. Reminds me of July 2012 when we got used to temperatures 5-10C degrees below normal day in day out. We really should be seeing 16-20C on a regular basis by now. That sounds like a heatwave at the moment. Looking ahead on the ECM, we look absolutely trapped. 

Not so,unless you are in the south east,we have had plenty of Junes that have been mid teens at best!

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, hillbilly said:

Not so,unless you are in the south east,we have had plenty of Junes that have been mid teens at best!

Fair enough. Been spoilt in recent years down here. Not this year!

[B87]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Yes i have to agree in recent times we have had many more warm Mays than average[in the long term] or cold ones.I think some of those commenting on May being cold would have been shocked if we were still in the 80s.

My long term average for May is 18c, which is still about 5c warmer than this May has been.

Coldest May on record here was 1996, colder than any of the 80s Mays. This May looks like challenging 1996, with constantly below average or well below average days for the forseeable future.

Edited May 5, 2021 by B87

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

My long term average for May is 18c, which is still about 5c warmer than this May has been.

Coldest May on record here was 1996, colder than any of the 80s Mays. This May looks like challenging 1996, with constantly below average or well below average days for the forseeable future.

But we're only up to May 5?

[B87]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

But we're only up to May 5?

Well below average on every day so far, and the forecast for the next 10 days or show just shows more of the same. Not a single day reaching average, apart from maybe one day this weekend which is forecast rain. Then it's back to 12-13c rubbish that belongs in November.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Not sure I agree with that @B87: Up until recently, May was definitely not a tee-shirt month -- I think we've just been spoiled, by a run of gooduns!

May though sees sunshine levels reach their near yearly peak, the sun has same oomph in it as it does through mid-late July.. out of the wind and in full sun the may afternoon will feel warm despite what the upper air temperature might be doing. Despite the sun today there was a cold wind to boot which negated its effect.

In NW parts May on average is often drier and sunnier than August and more often than not July. It's an annoying trait we are often dealt warmer uppers combined with rain in second half of summer and May and June drier sunnier weather often comes courtesy of colder uppers..

A high pressure directly overhead in May though is a thing of beauty, my ideal synoptic! Low to mid 20s easily reached.

Edited May 5, 2021 by damianslaw

[al78]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Not sure I agree with that @B87: Up until recently, May was definitely not a tee-shirt month -- I think we've just been spoiled, by a run of gooduns!

May definitely brings T-shirt weather at least for a short spell in all but the worst years here in Sussex. This year is something else. Walking back from the supermarket in twilight I'm in a sweatshirt, jeans and a jacket and I've felt warmer on several days in December. May is climatologically the driest and sunniest month in some parts of the UK (e.g. the Scottish highlands).