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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

    It's quite bizarre how the last 3 months have all started with below average temperatures and no warmth being modelled in the longer term, only for very warm conditions to turn up after mid month. The near average CET returns this year are masking some interesting cold / warm switches and variations.  April looks to start on a chilly note so could go in the same vein.  I was caught out in March going low, so have plumped for a warmer April!

    April 1st is looking pretty warm, especially in the south!

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    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP picked up a bit more than expected, 47 mm to 26th and looks like 3-4 added yesterday with some heavy falls in the northwest (dry most places though) ... just a bit more indicated so total likely to be closer to 52 mm than 48 as indicated. That will shuffle the leaderboard slightly, will perhaps edit the post made earlier. 

    Yesterday was rather cool so the CET didn't change, still on 6.7, what that means is that today's near record mild readings will bump it up to near 7.0 (more likely 6.9) and three more very warm days could leave it around 7.4 or 7.5. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

    EWP picked up a bit more than expected, 47 mm to 26th and looks like 3-4 added yesterday with some heavy falls in the northwest (dry most places though) ... just a bit more indicated so total likely to be closer to 52 mm than 48 as indicated. That will shuffle the leaderboard slightly, will perhaps edit the post made earlier. 

    Yesterday was rather cool so the CET didn't change, still on 6.7, what that means is that today's near record mild readings will bump it up to near 7.0 (more likely 6.9) and three more very warm days could leave it around 7.4 or 7.5. 

    The GFS 12z was showing around 12mm in total till the end of the month for parts of the North West, but it really is a deluge right now, slow moving bands as well, you are far more experienced in judging the average than me but wondering if it could be nearer to 60mm.

    image.thumb.png.41c3020811a33a69a75052b71f5ec175.png

    That heavy birst on the right of the image was the radar from 7pm - slab bang over N England

    image.thumb.png.2a500cacce4942f8eb79106cfa331a40.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Feb91, I have a bit of a feel for the day to day increases after looking at the 24h maps that are not yet included, then comparing my guesses to what the tracker shows as their estimate upon increase the next day. So from that I have come to the conclusion that 30-50 mm over ten per cent of the grid and nothing much everywhere else is going to be 3-5 mm (as you would expect from the raw math involved). But there can be surprises so let's just say anywhere from 52 to 59 mm is possible depending on what they add for today, then after that just small amounts on Monday possibly. 

    These changes are going to decrease your slide and would already say 3rd or 4th rather than 6th although the top six were already in a bit of a cluster anyway. As to best combined, I think Federico might be in the running despite a three day late penalty which cost him two ranks in EWP and will be assessed as a three-rank penalty in my system for combined (regardless of what it shows in the CET file because that doesn't slam with late penalties until the overall determination, but I think the three days deduction will be equivalent to three ranking spots). But despite that he's almost right on both estimated finishing values, if the CET does soar, I'm lurking with a 7.6 and 55.7 mm EWP which could get similar ranking totals to your effort. Not saying Leo97t is out of the running yet though, small additions to EWP and he should be in the lead still. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    56 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The GFS 12z was showing around 12mm in total till the end of the month for parts of the North West, but it really is a deluge right now, slow moving bands as well, you are far more experienced in judging the average than me but wondering if it could be nearer to 60mm.

    image.thumb.png.41c3020811a33a69a75052b71f5ec175.png

    That heavy birst on the right of the image was the radar from 7pm - slab bang over N England

    image.thumb.png.2a500cacce4942f8eb79106cfa331a40.png

    I can confirm it's hoying it down!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C+0.2C above normal. Rainfall up to 69.3mm 114.4% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP update ... 49 mm to Sat 27th, then yesterday as some were reporting, very heavy rains in Cumbria (88.4 mm the total at Shap) but 90% of the grid saw nothing, just northwest Wales and Cumbria, expect the tracker to add 3 or maybe 4 mm for this blend and then it's done according to GFS showing all further March rainfalls in Ireland and Scotland only (trace amounts in northern England). That gives us 52-53 mm for the estimate, will confirm what they have in the tracker account tomorrow. It won't make a big difference to that preliminary EWP scoring but slight changes will be needed (won't edit the post, just wait and see how it works out). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.8c to the 28th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.8c on the 28th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    6.8c to the 28th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.8c on the 28th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

    #StopTheCount !!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    GFS suggesting a potential daily record for the 31st. Forecast daily mean is about 14.0C, while the previous record is 13.8C from 1815.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    Then in April 1815 Tamboro (Indonesian volcano thought responsible for the 1816 cold waves) exploded. No connection of course (to the 31 Mar record as mentioned above). 

    If so, that would remove the one warm record 1815 managed to retain to this day, and open up a three-year gap between 14 June 1814 and 21 June 1817 records (on the max side, 1816 did pretty well on the min side). I think that may be around third longest after early 1840s and 1966-70. 

    So I looked at my nearly inexhaustible data sets and found these factoids, some more appropriate to April perhaps, will move them over there after the forecast frenzy. But this includes a look at all warm finishes to March, then how April began and ended up after them. 

    Criteria for table (1) is any mean of 10.0 or higher for 29-31 March, then CET for first half April and all of April that followed. 

    Table (2) will only look at cold starts to April regardless of what March was doing but will give the end of March CET for those cases. 

     

    (1) WARM SPELLS 29-31 MARCH and APRIL CET data

    _ The order in this table is reverse chronological (going back in time).

    Because there were so few cases before 1990, any three days after 26th (*) were included in table 1772-2020.

    Also included the remarkable 25th-27th 1777 spell with much higher average than any other to date.

    If 29-31 would have qualified but an earlier spell was warmer, that fact is noted (^) (one instance only).

    YEAR ___ CET 29-31 Mar __ avg ____ MAR CET ______ 1-15 APR and 1-30 APR CET

    2017 ___ 10.2, 15.1, 13.4 __ 12.9 _____ 8.7 ____________ 9.5 ______ 8.9

    2012*___11.2, 11.1, 10.1 __ 10.8 _____ 8.3 ____________ 6.6 ______ 7.2 __ * 27th-29th (9.4 30th)

    2014 ___ 10.8, 11.7, 11.5 __ 11.3 _____ 7.6 ____________10.1 _____10.2

    2006 ____ 8.3, 11.0, 11.7 __ 10.3 _____ 4.9 _____________ 7.0 _____ 8.6

    1999 ___ 10.6, 10.3, 12.8 __ 11.2 _____ 7.4 _____________ 9.6 _____ 9.4

    1998 ___ 11.9, 12.9, 9.2 ___ 11.3 _____ 7.9 ______________6.6 _____ 7.7

    1989*___10.6, 12.2, 8.7 ___ 10.5 _____ 7.5 ______________6.5 _____ 6.6 __ * 26th-28th 

    1981*____8.8, 12.5, 9.7 ___ 10.3 _____ 7.9 ______________ 9.3 _____ 7.8 __ * 27th-29th 

    1968*__ 10.5, 10.8, 13.3 __ 11.5 _____ 6.3 ______________ 4.9 _____ 8.1 __ * 27th-29th

    1946 ___ 11.7, 10.8, 9.9 ___ 10.8 _____ 5.1 ______________10.0 ____ 9.9

    1945 ___ 11.9, 8.8, 9.7 ____ 10.1 _____ 7.9 ______________ 10.4 ___ 10.1

    1938 ___ 11.6, 13.1, 11.7 __ 12.1 _____ 9.1 _______________7.8 ____ 7.6

    1936 ___ 11.4, 11.7, 10.7 __ 11.3 _____ 7.1 _______________5.6 ____ 6.3

    1929*___ 11.2, 10.8, 10.0 __10.7 _____ 6.2 ______________ 6.3 ____ 6.8 __ * 28th-30th (31st 8.9)

    1923*___ 13.5, 11.0, 9.4 ___ 11.3 _____6.5 _______________8.1 ____ 7.6 __ * 27th-29th

    1920 ___ 11.1, 13.4, 10.6 __ 11.7 _____ 7.2 _______________8.1 ____ 8.2

    1914 ____ 8.0, 10.0, 12.5 __ 10.2 _____ 6.1 _______________8.7 ____ 9.8

    1912*___11.5, 10.3, 10.3 __ 10.7 _____ 7.2 _______________8.0 ____ 8.8 __ * 26th-28th 

    1899 ___ 11.6, 10.5, 9.8 ___ 10.6 _____ 5.1 _______________7.9 ____ 7.8

    1890*___ 10.7, 11.2, 9.3 ___ 10.4 _____6.2 _______________6.2 ____ 7.1 __ * 27th-29th

    1886*___ 10.4, 11.1, 10.7 __10.7 _____4.2 _______________ 7.0 ____ 7.6 __ * 26th-28th

    1874*___ 10.9, 9.6, 9.9 ____ 10.1 _____6.7 _______________ 7.5 ____ 9.8 __ * 28th-30th

    1872*___ 11.2, 10.8, 10.8 __10.9 _____6.8 _______________ 8.3 ____ 8.2 __ * 28th-30th ^ 9.0 31st (10.2)

    1866*___ 10.5, 11.2, 10.9 __10.9 _____4.8 _______________ 7.6 ____ 8.6 __ * 28th-30th

    1848 ____ 7.8, 10.3, 12.0 ___10.0 _____5.9 _______________ 8.7 ____ 8.2 __ very warm 1-4 Apr (avg 13.1)

    1830*___ 10.6, 10.5, 9.2 ___ 10.1 _____7.7 _______________ 6.9 ____ 8.9 __ * 26th-28th

    1822*____ 9.9, 12.6, 8.6 ___ 10.4 _____7.8 _______________ 7.0 ____ 8.3 __ * 27th-29th

    1819 _____9.2, 10.8, 12.0 ___10.7 _____6.8 _______________9.0 ____ 8.6 

    1815 ____10.4, 8.4, 13.8 ___ 10.9 _____ 7.3 _______________9.6 ____ 8.1

    1813 ____ 13.4, 11.9, 10.4 __11.9 _____ 6.8 ______________ 8.0 ____ 7.6

    1803 ____ 10.6, 9.6, 11.6 ___10.6 _____ 6.3 ______________10.2 ____ 9.1

    1802*____ 9.5, 11.2, 11.2 __ 10.6 _____ 5.6 ______________ 8.1 ____ 8.9 __ * 26th-28th

    1788 _____9.0, 12.3, 8.8 ____10.0 _____ 3.6 ______________ 8.3 ____ 9.4 

    1780*___ 12.7, 10.7, 9.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 7.9 ______________ 4.4 ____ 6.3 __ * 27th-29th (9.7 30th)

    1778 ___ 11.1, 10.1, 10.0 __ 10.4 _____ 4.6 ______________10.2 ____ 8.2 

    1777*___13.9, 14.6, 14.8___14.4 _____ 6.8 ______________ 6.8 ____ 7.2 __ * 25th-27th (avg 4.6 28th-31st)

    averages for data _________10.9 _____ 6.7 ______________ 7.92 __ 8.26

    ______________________________________________________________________________________________

    ANALYSIS: There were 35 cases found, and probably about two dozen others that involved similar warm spells

    earlier in March not included here. That is a rate of one every 7.1 years on average, They tend to cluster somewhat,

    but are well distributed with the longest interval just 22 years (1946 to 1968). The March CET values are not overly

    warm given that this sample inserts three very warm days, the mean of the non-included days is about 6.4 C. That

    is somewhat above the long-term average for this sample period. The Aprils that follow these late March warm spells

    have a notable tendency to a cooler trend with the final CET only 0.3 higher than the mid-month, which for the sample

    period is considerably above the average at 7.9. Although the sample group ends up somewhat warmer than the long-

    term average the mean for the second half is probably a bit below the long term average. Of the 35 cases, 14 were

    warmer in the first half of April, and another three were within 0.2 of the eventual finish. This is considerably higher

    than a sample taken at random from all Aprils. The conclusion overall is that these late March warmings are not 

    locked into warm predecessor periods nor do they persist much longer than a few days to perhaps two weeks into

    April before a reversal of trend often sets in. The 1968 case had very cold weather within a few days in early April.

    _______________________________________________________________

    (2) Cold starts to April since 1950

    Since the first table was quite lengthy, will keep this one short -- a list of April mid-month CET values below 6.8

    since 1950, with the March and final April CET values added. This list is also reverse chronological. Several of

    these also appear in table (1) above. If so, they are marked with an asterisk. This can be moved over to the

    April discussion after the forecasts are in. 

    YEAR ___________ 1-15 Apr CET _____ March CET _ April CET

    2013 ____________ 5.8 _________________ 2.7 _______ 7.5

    2012*____________6.6 _________________ 8.3 _______ 7.2

    2008 ____________ 6.7 _________________ 6.1 _______ 7.9

    2000 ____________ 5.6 _________________ 7.6 _______ 7.8

    1998*____________6.7 _________________ 7.9 _______ 7.7

    1996 ____________ 6.5 _________________ 4.5 _______ 8.5

    1994 ____________ 5.8 _________________ 7.7 _______ 8.1

    1990 ____________ 6.7 _________________ 8.3 _______ 8.0

    1989*___________ 6.5 _________________ 7.5 _______ 6.6

    1986 ____________ 4.4 _________________ 4.9 _______ 5.8 

    1984 ____________ 5.6 _________________ 4.7 _______ 8.1

    1983 ____________ 5.6 _________________ 6.4 _______ 6.8

    1978 ____________ 5.4 _________________ 6.7 _______ 6.5

    1977 ____________ 6.2 _________________ 6.9 _______ 7.2 

    1975 ____________ 5.6 _________________ 4.8 _______ 8.3

    1973 ____________ 6.3 _________________ 6.2 _______ 7.0

    1970 ____________ 4.7 _________________ 3.7 _______ 6.7

    1968*____________4.9 _________________ 6.3 _______ 8.1

    1967 ____________ 6.6 _________________ 7.0 _______ 7.7

    1966 ____________ 6.0 _________________ 6.5 _______ 7.2

    1964 ____________ 6.8 _________________ 4.3 _______ 8.7

    1962 ____________ 6.5 _________________ 2.8 _______ 7.7

    1958 ____________ 4.6 _________________ 3.7 _______ 7.4

    1953 ____________ 6.5 _________________ 5.6 _______ 7.3

    1951 ____________ 6.1 _________________ 4.1 _______ 6.8

    averages ________ 5.95 ________________ 5.8 _______ 7.5

    _________________________________________________

    25 of the past 70 Aprils have begun with a first half of 6.8 or colder. 

    They tended to follow the colder Marches in general with a few exceptions like 1990, 2012.

    The frequency has dropped off, only 4 of the past 21 (7.5 expected from the 25/70 rate).

    The severity has also dropped, with most sub-6.0 cases in the first half of the interval. 

    1986 was the most recent sub-5.0 first half of April. 

    The all-time lowest first half (since 1772) was 2.6 in 1917 followed by 2.9 in 1837. 

    A recent benchmark is a running mean CET of 3.8 on 8th of 1986. (3.7 to 8th of 1968).

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.6C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 69.3mm 114.4% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP only added 2 mm despite those northwest deluges, 51 mm now. That's likely about it for March 2021. Will report on the updated scoring tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    7.0c to the 29th

    1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 7.0c on the 29th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    On 14/03/2021 at 14:48, Don said:

    I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

    Mid month I was thinking the same, but how things change and surpass 🥴

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Just like February, a warming trend through the month, first half colder than normal, but a very mild second half. 4 months in a row when the first half of the month has delivered colder than average conditions of varying degrees. April about to do the same.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    7.0c to the 29th

    1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 7.0c on the 29th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

    Getting 0.2C rises at this point in the month is quite something. We may well get above 7C after corrections, which at one point not even that long ago was unthinkable.

    Edited by Man Without Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    During the warmest three day interval of March (25th-27th of 1777) the running CET went from 6.2 on the 24th to 7.1 on the 27th and the month then chilled and finished at 6.8 C. So that was three consecutive days with 0.3 rises in CET. In 1938 with three quite warm days at the end, the CET went from 8.8 to 9.1 but it was already working from quite a warm base. In 2017 the month also ended with three very warm days and went from 8.2 on the 28th to 8.7 outcome. And in 1815 the month went from 6.9 to 7.3 over that same period.

    The rise formula is basically this -- take the warm day, compare differential of that to previous day's CET, divide by number of days now elapsed. Example, yesterday came in at 13.0, which was 6.2 above the running mean from previous day, 6.2/29 = 0.21. If today is also around 13.0, the differential now 6.0 and 30 days, so the rise will be another 0.20. (most probably knew that anyway, just adding it in case not already known). It would take something like 14.6 or higher to get into 0.3 rise territory (depends on the second decimal value of the current provisional). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    5 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Mid month I was thinking the same, but how things change and surpass 🥴

    And it's mad how so many people assume they know -- or are at least very confident of -- the outcome of a month when there are 14+ days left. Not singling anyone out here, as such comments have been made on these threads for years.

    Edited by Relativistic
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.9C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    EWP still showing 51 mm, have updated the scoring using 51.4 mm as I expect very marginal additions today. In any case this is only provisional until that final number is posted on or about 5th of April, and with so many forecasts closely bunched, some changes may occur then. For now this is the scoring available ... ranks are probably less significant than differentials in some parts of the table. 

    The material posted about "best combined forecasts" will be edited in place later. Leo97t remains second EWP in the new list anyway, but a few others may have improved their chances. The group with forecasts around 45 mm have dropped about 1-2 points and those with low to mid 50s have gained, otherwise the only changes were rather minor as better error deductions rippled through the former scoring.

    Ranks 2 and 3 for March have equal scores (t2) as equal errors on either side of provisional, this tie will likely get broken on 5th April however, in whose favour can't say. With the duplicate entries at 50 mm noname_weather could drop by three ranks, the other outcome only drops three people by one rank.

     

     

    PROVISIONAL SCORES for MARCH 2021 (from 51.4 mm) ____ PROVISIONAL TOTALS for CONTEST YEAR

    Rank_ Forecaster ________ fcst __ err _____ pts __________ rank _ forecaster _________ points __ avg err (rank)

    01 _ Bobd29 _____________52.0 __+0.6 ___ 10.00 ________ 01 _ snowray ______________32.24 ___ 30.70 (5)

    02t_ Leo97t ______________50.0 __ --1.4 ___ 9.80 ________ 02 _ Bobd29 ______________ 31.56 ___ 35.43 (8)

    02t_ noname_weather ___52.8 __ +1.4 ___ 9.80 ________ 03 _ virtualsphere ________ 30.76 ___ 29.78 (4)

    04 _ The PIT __________ (2)_50.0 __ --1.4 ___ 9.68 ________ 04 _ Relativistic ___________ 29.83 ___ 28.88 (3)

    05 _ Relativistic ___ (3, 1d)_50.0 __ --1.4 ___ 9.26 ________ 05 _ The PIT _______________29.53 ___ 37.63 (15)

    06 _ virtualsphere ________48.0 __ --3.4 ___ 8.64 ________ 06 _ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 29.18 ___ 34.68 (7)

    07t_ Federico _____ (4, 3d)_50.0 __ --1.4 ___ 8.54 ________07 _ Federico _____________ 26.38 ___ 36.03 (10)

    07t _ snowray _______ (1d)_54.0 ___+2.6 ___8.54 _______  08 _ Don __________________ 25.58 ___ 36.58 (13)

    09 _ Pegg24 ______________ 55.0 ___+3.6 ___8.45 ________09 _ noname_weather ____ 24.96 ___ 40.88 (21)

    10 _ Norrance ________ (2) _55.0 __ +3.6 ___8.33 ________10 _ Godber1 _____________ 24.87 ___ 39.18 (19)

    11 _ Roger J Smith ________ 55.7 __ +4.3 ___8.07 ________ 11 _ Reef _________________ 24.29 ___ 35.93 (12)

    12 _ stargazer ____________ 56.0 __ +4.6 ___7.87 ________ 12 _ SteveB _______________ 23.70 ___ 35.83 (11)

    13 _ Reef _________________ 57.0 __ +5.6 ___ 7.68 ________13 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ____23.67 ___ 40.13 (20)

    14 _ coldest winter _______ 45.3 __ --6.1 ___ 7.28 ________14 _ stewfox ______________ 23.56 ___ 42.13 (23)

    15 _ Frigid ________________ 45.0 __ --6.4 ___ 7.09  _______ 15 _ JeffC _________________ 23.28 ___ 38.93 (t17)

    16 _ Stewfox __________ (2)_45.0 __ --6.4 ___ 6.97 ________16 _ davehsug ____________ 23.22 ___ 38.08 (16)

    17 _ Emmett Garland_(2,2d)_57.0 __ +5.6 ___ 6.94 _______ 17 _ Midlands Ice Age _____22.23 ___ 38.93 (t17)

    18 _ Earthshine __ (3, 1d) _ 45.0 __ --6.4 ___  6.55 _______ 18 _ February1978 ________22.11 ___ 43.08 (24)

    19 _ weather-history ______58.0 __ +6.6 ___ 6.50 _______ 19 _ Stationary Front ______ 21.41 ___ 43.18 (25)

    20 _ Walsall Wood Snow (2)58.0 __ +6.6 ___6.38 _______ 20 _ Blast From the Past ___ 21.30 ___ 46.93 (t40)

    21 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 58.8 __ +7.4 ___ 6.13 _______ 21 _ pegg24 _______________ 20.96 ___ 45.08 (34)

    22 _ seaside60 ___________ 59.0 __ +7.6 ___ 5.94 _______ 22 _ Leo97t ________________ 20.93 ___ 53.88 (50)

    23 _ Summer blizzard ____ 60.0 __ +8.6 ___ 5.75 _______ 23 _ Emmett Garland ______ 19.44 ___ 44.83 (33)

    24 _ SteveB ______________ 63.0 __+11.6 ___ 5.55 _______ 24 _ Summer18 ____________ 19.14 ___ 43.93 (27)

    25 _ Godber1 _______ (2) _ 63.0 __+11.6 ___ 5.43 _______ 25 _ seaside60 _____________ 18.85 ___ 45.33 (t35)

    _________________________________________________________________________________

    notes: 6th place virtualsphere was scored from 8th scoring interval and snowray scored from 7th scoring interval, late penalty accounts for switch. 

    ... both moved ahead of (or tied) federico who had a larger late penalty, so that virtualsphere is two scoring ranks ahead of error ranking, snowray

    splits the difference and ends up tied with federico scored from second rank. Any other scores which look out of order relative to errors have a

    similar explanation, somebody's late penalty dropped them one or two ranks down the scoring list. (coldest winter scored off 15th interval, 

    Frigid and duplicate 45 mm off 16th, Emmett Garland off 13th interval with 2d late penalty and duplicate entry deductions.) 

    ______________________________________________________________________

    some higher ranks in average error do not appear in top 25 as criteria for ranking is entry of 2/4 or more contests, this will advance by "all but two"

    as we move forward so these outliers will probably either drop off the list (if they fail to enter) or get mixed in more. 

    Currently low average error (2 of 4 entered) is coldest winter, second lowest is cymro (also 2 of 4). They will be out of the rankings if they miss

    one more month this contest year.

    ... will post the supporting excel scoring file later, for ranks beyond 25th in each contest. 

    ... 26-30 annual ranks are 2010cold, J10, Polar Gael, moffat and jonboy.

    ... 31-40 are shillitocettwo, coldest winter tied Summer Blizzard, Born from the Void, Earthshine, General Cluster, Cymro, Norrance, Roger J Smith, Mulzy.

    ... 41-50 are Sleety, Booferking, Dog Toffee, DR(S)NO, Joneseye, Frigid, Walsall Wood Snow, weather26,  I Rem Atl 252, Let It Snow.

    ... 51-60 are cawsand, DRL, sundog, weather-history, David Snow, MrMaunder, Stargazer, moorlander, NeilN, Paul T.

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    On 08/03/2021 at 12:19, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest update

    Mar8Project.thumb.png.ccbd78c6a9c76a323f0470d8b6b3bfe1.png Mar8Pob.thumb.png.ae158e59b9686720bc5a05e5a9e46493.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 29.4% (4 days ago was 23.8%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻to 2.8% (4 days ago was 3.6%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 67.7% (4 days ago was 72.6%)

    GFS for the 8th to 13th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.5C below the 91-20 average

     

    8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    And it's mad how so many people assume they know -- or are at least very confident of -- the outcome of a month when there are 14+ days left. Not singling anyone out here, as such comments have been made on these threads for years.

     

    Not just people.....the models are guilty of it too!!! 

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    We've set a provisional record maximum for the 30th, 19.9C. Beats the 2017 record by 0.7C.

    The max record today, of 18.7C, is almost certain to be beaten. As is the daily mean record of 13.8C.
    There's even a chance that today could average above 15C, a feat that was achieved only once before, in 2017!

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    We have a provisional minimum of 9.1C, so would need a maximum of 20.9C to give a provisional 15.0C mean. Will be close.

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