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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections

    Mar22Proj.thumb.png.2b07ddb1794297466206be3cb0329f89.png Mar22Prob.thumb.png.57ac9022294f1aab16c84c8f771b6517.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 97.2% (6 days ago was 61.3%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻 to 0.0% (6 days ago was 3.2%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 2.8% (6 days ago was 35.5%)

    GFS for the 23rd to 28th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.3C above the 91-20 average

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    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A finish in the high 6s looking a good bet based on current output, generally a bit above average in the days ahead with a mini blip Friday. Last 3 days may bring more general warmth but too late to up the CET value much. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6C bang on average. Rainfall unchanged at 56.9mm 93.9% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.4c to the 23rd

    1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.4c on the 23rd*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    image.thumb.png.50c9ea9a5581a66c087044e3026e5058.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C bang on average. Rainfall unchanged

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.5c to the 24th

    1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.5c on the 24th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.3C +0.2C above normal, Rainfall up to 57mm 94.1% of the monthly average.

    Looking like we will finish around 6.7C +0.3C so overall an average month rain fall looks to be just above average

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    7.1C before corrections looks most likely to me. The warm spell, in terms of length and intensity, could change that by 0.1 or 0.2C either direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    7.1C before corrections looks most likely to me. The warm spell, in terms of length and intensity, could change that by 0.1 or 0.2C either direction.

    Yes, i am going for a shade under 7 after corrections, just shows you though that graphic you put up can massively under do the % chance of a certain outcome, the other day it had over 7 as a 5%, that is probably because it still had lower than 6 as a possibility which just was never going to happen, still not completely out the question of being bang on 7.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, i am going for a shade under 7 after corrections, just shows you though that graphic you put up can massively under do the % chance of a certain outcome, the other day it had over 7 as a 5%, that is probably because it still had lower than 6 as a possibility which just was never going to happen, still not completely out the question of being bang on 7.

    The 6% chance it showed of finishing above 7C would have been on the basis of us seeing near record breaking warmth at the end of the month. That's exactly what we're seeing this year. The 29th and 30th are both forecast to be in the top 3 warmest for those days.
    A low probability event, thus a low chance of it being the outcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Meanwhile the EWP tracker is a sleepy spot to rest, now at 41 mm (24th) with an estimated 2 mm average in the grid yesterday, and the rest of the month fairly dry away from heavier rainfall zones in north Wales and Cumbria, so giving that about 5 mm comes to 48 mm. 

    A finish on 48.1 mm was put into the provisional excel file so I'll list the top 15 annual and monthly from that, realizing that any shift would be towards higher forecasts adding one or two scoring levels. Virtualsphere at the moment looks to scoop top scores in both the monthly and annual contests but the race is fairly tight behind his leading total. Leo97t would have his second consecutive top score if the EWP finishes 49.1 to 51.0 mm. 

    PROVISIONAL SCORES for MARCH 2021 (on 48.1 mm) ____ PROVISIONAL TOTALS for CONTEST YEAR

    Rank_ Forecaster _______ fcst __ err _____ pts __________ rank _ forecaster _________ points __ avg err (rank)

    01 _ virtualsphere ______ 48.0 __ -0.1 ___ 10.00 _________ 01 _ virtualsphere ________ 32.12 ___ 28.95 (3)

    02 _ Leo97t _____________ 50.0 __ +1.9 ___ 9.80 _________ 02 _ snowray ______________31.27 ___ 31.53 (5)

    03 _ The PIT _________ (2)_50.0 __ +1.9 ___ 9.68 _________ 03 _ Relativistic ___________ 29.83 ___ 29.00 (4)

    04 _ Relativistic __ (3, 1d)_50.0 __ +1.9 ___ 9.26 _________ 04 _ Bobd29 ______________ 29.81 ___ 36.25 (9)

    05 _ coldest winter ______ 45.3 __ -2.8 ___ 9.03 _________ 05 _ The PIT _______________29.53 ___ 37.75 (15)

    06 _ Frigid _______________ 45.0 __ -3.1 ___ 8.83 _________ 06 _ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 29.17 ___ 35.50 (7)

    07 _ Stewfox _________ (2)_45.0 __ -3.1 ___8.71 __________07 _ Federico _____________ 26.38 ___ 36.15 (8)

    08 _ Federico ____ (4, 3d)_50.0 __ +1.9 ___ 8.54 _________ 08 _ Don __________________25.57 ___ 37.40 (14)

    09 _ Earthshine __ (3, 1d)_45.0 __ -3.1 ___ 8.29 _________ 09 _ stewfox ______________ 25.30 ___ 41.30 (22)

    10 _ Bobd29 _____________ 52.0 __+3.9 ___ 8.25 _________10 _ Godber1 _____________ 24.86 ___ 40.00 (20)

    11 _ noname_weather ___ 52.8 __+4.7 ___ 8.05 _________11 _ SteveB _______________23.69 ___ 36.65 (11)

    12 _ Pegg24 ______________ 55.0 __+6.9 ___ 7.66 ________ 12 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ___23.66 ___ 40.95 (12)

    13 _ snowray ________ (1d)_54.0 __+5.9 ___7.57 ________ 13 _ Reef __________________23.50 ___ 36.75 (13)

    14 _ Norrance ________ (2) _55.0 __+6.9 ___7.54 ________t14 _ noname_weather ____ 23.21 ___ 41.70 (23)

    15 _ Roger J Smith ________ 55.7 __+7.6 ___7.27 ________t14 _ davehsug _____________23.21 ___ 38.90 (16)

    _____________________________________________________________________________

    16-20 in the annual contest are JeffC (23.08), Midlands Ice Age (22.22), February1978 (22.09), Blast from the Past (21.30) and

    Stationary Front (21.21). The average error ranks include anyone who played 2/4 to 4/4 and from now on will always be

    based on all but two contests (ending up needing 10/12 for a ranking there) so as it happens the two lowest average

    errors are currently held by coldest winter (19.20 mm for 2 contests) and cymro (26.75 mm for 2 contests) but those two

    would have to enter all remaining contests to hold on to their rankings, if they fail to show for April, the other ranks will

    move up one or two spots. Polar Gael has managed to score 10th for average error despite being in 33rd on points. That

    was mainly due to a very good forecast in January with a much lower error than most, then more middle of the pack to

    low scores and errors in the other three months. Joneseye is the other missing top ten error rank (6th) and did it the 

    opposite way by playing 3/4 and missing treacherous January. 

    This will all of course be updated at the end of the month and a longer list of scores will be made available as well as

    the updated scoring file. Note that scores for 45.0 mm start from scoring level seven because of Federico's late penalty

    dropping his rank into their grouping. Although Earthshine dropped two ranks for his late penalty, that score remained

    just ahead of 10th ranked. Also snowray was scored from 12th scoring interval and Pegg24 from 13th but their ranks

    were exchanged after the late penalty on snowray's score. 

    For the annual standings, the first six are all quite competitive, with not much spacing, then 7th to 13th are all closely 

    bunched in a chase pack. 

    10 _ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    There were a lot of contenders for "best combined forecast" based on possible finishes in the range 6.8 to 7.1 as seems likely.

    With the added uncertainty of the EWP ranks being not quite settled, these would be best combined depending on where

    the CET finishes, based on the EWP rankings we just listed. 

    At 7.1, coldest winter is 4th CET (with 7.1, 4th entry) and has 5th in EWP = 9 ranking points

    that would edge out Leo97t (7.0, 8th CET) and 2nd EWP = 10 ranking points

    also, stewfox is 3rd CET (with 7.1, 3rd entry) and has 8th in EWP = 11 ranking points

    At 7.0, Leo97t is 2nd CET (with 7.0 2nd entry) and also 2nd in EWP = 4 ranking points

    At 6.9, Leo97t is 7th CET and 2nd EWP for 9 ranking points. 

    At 6.8, Leo97t drops to 13th CET but is still tied best combined at 15 ranking points, with 

    Pegg24 (3rd CET, 12th EWP) also tied. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.4C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 64.8mm 106.9% of the monthly average.

    Present landing zone for us looks like 6.9C +0.5C above normal.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.6c to the 25th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.6c on the 25th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    6.6c to the 25th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.6c on the 25th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

    no uupdate so far today either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    GFS this morning has the CET finishing on 7.2C as the warm air holds on a little longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    59 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    GFS this morning has the CET finishing on 7.2C as the warm air holds on a little longer.

    I'd be doing quite well with my guesses lately  I fancy if every month ended 5 days before it actually does! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.7c to the 26th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.7c on the 26th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Daily records from today to end of month include current and former monthly extremes. 

    27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) 

    28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) 

    29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) 

    30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) 

    31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) 

    The mark from 28th is quite a bit easier to reach than the others, Tuesday is up against the recent all-time daily record which put an end to the reign of the 27th, 1777. 

    From the 6.7 reached to 26th, a repeat of all five of these values would in theory produce an outcome of 7.8 C, an outcome that averages 2 deg short of each daily record comes out to 7.5. An average of 10 leaves the outcome 7.2 to 7.3. 

    So if we do set or threaten any records the outcome will jump up quickly, but after correction would likely be not much higher than 7.0. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield eased back to 6.3C +0.1C above normal, Rainfall 67.6mm 111.6% of the monthly average

    Latest projections for sunny Sheffield is 6.9C. All depends how warm the early summer days get Monday and Tuesday.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.7c to the 27th

    1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 6.7c on the 26th and 27th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The GFS has kicked things up a notch. Extending the near record warmth to the end of the month (the forecast average for the last 3 days is about 13.1C, the warmest on record). As such, it currently looks like a finish of 7.4C is on the cards!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The GFS has kicked things up a notch. Extending the near record warmth to the end of the month (the forecast average for the last 3 days is about 13.1C, the warmest on record). As such, it currently looks like a finish of 7.4C is on the cards!

    It's quite bizarre how the last 3 months have all started with below average temperatures and no warmth being modelled in the longer term, only for very warm conditions to turn up after mid month. The near average CET returns this year are masking some interesting cold / warm switches and variations.  April looks to start on a chilly note so could go in the same vein.  I was caught out in March going low, so have plumped for a warmer April!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    We had a lot of rain here this morning, could that get the rain up to mid 50's mm averaged out over the whole country, CET looking like 7.4c (presuming that is before corrections), i could be on for the double here!

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