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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
On 14/03/2021 at 14:48, Don said:

I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

Hmm, perhaps not!

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
21 hours ago, Don said:

Hmm, perhaps not!

Ground hog, if I remember Feb mid month it was all cold cold and look how that turned out

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Ground hog, if I remember Feb mid month it was all cold cold and look how that turned out

Yep, bloody weather gods giving us the runaround yet again lol!

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.5C -0.3C, Rainfall 56.7mm 93.6% of the monthly average.

Looking like a mild month to be on the cards at the present time.

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

The coldest March in this area averaged 1.75 deg c in 1947 beating 2013 at 1.9 degC.

 

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

Would estimate the CET had gained 0.1 per day to reach 6.0, just a guess though. The rest of the month looks fairly bland and seems likely to stay in the 6 to 6.5 range. 

The EWP has been stalled at 38 mm for several days and looks to add small amounts the rest of the way, a finish in the 45-55 mm range is likely. Not enough difference yet from earlier estimate to re-set the scoring estimates. 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

Slightly above average temps look the form horse for the rest of the month, nothing especially mild, but nothing overly cool in the outlook either. Turning into a very bland March.. can't imagine many having much to remember about the month, though locally in Scotland the last few days have brought early warmth.

Edited by damianslaw
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 5.6C -0.2C below average. Rainfall up to 56.9mm 93.9% of the monthly average.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.7C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No update so far today

Typical this, just as it looked to be on the up creeping up to my 7.3c - vital one for me this, need at least a very close one to start threatening the leaderboard, reckon an outright win would put me slap bang amongst the early front ruunners, and with my EWP looking very good i could be in the best position i have been in going towards the second half of the year.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Typical this, just as it looked to be on the up creeping up to my 7.3c - vital one for me this, need at least a very close one to start threatening the leaderboard, reckon an outright win would put me slap bang amongst the early front ruunners, and with my EWP looking very good i could be in the best position i have been in going towards the second half of the year.

A hell of a long way to go yet Feb  I was topps for most of spring and summer last year, you only need one really bad guess/month and it’s hard to come back

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Typical this, just as it looked to be on the up creeping up to my 7.3c - vital one for me this, need at least a very close one to start threatening the leaderboard, reckon an outright win would put me slap bang amongst the early front ruunners, and with my EWP looking very good i could be in the best position i have been in going towards the second half of the year.

I can't help reading that in a Marlon Brando On-The-Waterfront-Style voice    

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Not sure where we are with the CET, lack of updates... suspect very close to the rolling mean against 61-90, if not a bit above. Still 11 days left of the month, and uncertainty where we may finally end up. Coming week looking close to average overall, perhaps little above in the CET zone at least for a time, before a slight cooling trend. End of the month may see something warmer or just average, but nothing particularly cool on the cards. Odds of ending with a figure higher than 61-90 average at least quite high I say, but suspect. A finish in the high 6s seems a good bet, possibility low 7s. A very average March, in what is turning into a very non-descript month that will be quickly forgotten - March can be highly variable, but this year there has been very little extreme so far apart from the odd very mild day here and there.

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Frigid Experienced

Frigid

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure where we are with the CET, lack of updates... suspect very close to the rolling mean against 61-90, if not a bit above. Still 11 days left of the month, and uncertainty where we may finally end up. Coming week looking close to average overall, perhaps little above in the CET zone at least for a time, before a slight cooling trend. End of the month may see something warmer or just average, but nothing particularly cool on the cards. Odds of ending with a figure higher than 61-90 average at least quite high I say, but suspect. A finish in the high 6s seems a good bet, possibility low 7s. A very average March, in what is turning into a very non-descript month that will be quickly forgotten - March can be highly variable, but this year there has been very little extreme so far apart from the odd very mild day here and there.

March 2020 was way more enjoyable, albeit being the start of lockdown the last 10 days was very pleasant. This March has been a bit boring. No sunny days and average/cool temps, highest i've recorded is 12c. Kinda surprised the CET is as high as it is tbh. 

Edited by Frigid
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Both years produced forgettable March's but I agree that the last third was better last year.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.7C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 56.9mm 93.9% of the monthly average.

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing again.

This seems to happen very occasionally. Is it possible it's the responsibility of just one person and every time they have a break, it gets left until their return?  

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

My CET estimate is 6.3 or 6.4 based on an average of 7.5 for the five missing days 17th-21st.  The EWP is still stuck at 38 mm and model guidance shows one significant addition coming late in the week, so current final total estimate remains 45-50 mm. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.9C -0.1C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

6.3c to the 22nd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 6.3c  on the 22nd*
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

*No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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