Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up 4.4C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 50.7mm 83.7% of the monthly average

    The expected slow down for yesterday and today however the upward pressure will resume next week.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 247
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.1c to the 12th

    Bang on the 61 to 90 average
    0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.1c on the 12th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models still showing nothing overly mild through the middle of the month and into the last third, long way to go, but likelihood of a below average month compared to 61-90 average even not too tall an order. However, by late March the sun has much more oomph to it, and a spell of southerlies would push temps up markedly. The balance though appears to be shifting towards a colder pattern.

    Typing this as I look out at the fells covered in thick snow down to 500m, not been this covered since mid February. The tug between winter and spring that is March, sometimes winter wins out...

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    15 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    This is interesting I feel there is a distinct chance.

     

    Very long way to go yet.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Some models are coming out with runs which would give March every chance of producing a second half of the month (16 days) colder than the first half of the month.

    But this is by no means an unusual occurrence.... 

     

    309526462_HalvesofMArch.thumb.jpg.4a29e3533f2d5e8757047e6ecef01e52.jpg

     

    The above diagram shows the difference in the average mean CET between the second half of March and the first half of March with the dips below zero representing those years with colder second halves. It might actually be said we are due a March with a colder second half, as we have now had 5 consecutive years  without one.  Since 1878, the longest such run was one of 10 years which ended in 1952. There has only been one other run of more than 6 years (7 years ending in 1975) and, in addition to those two runs, only two others  have gone more than  5,  with the current run threatening to make it the fifth such run.

    Maybe you wouldn't expect to see it so such much the other way around but there has been, in the same time-frame,  a run of 6 and two others of 4 with the most recent ending in 1981.  In fact that more recent run came in a period that saw 8 of of 11 months of March produce a warmer first half, a run that started  in 1975 after the aforementioned run of 7 years of successive warmer 2nd halves. That run of 8 in 11 is the principal reason that by 1994 we had seen a 20 years period that delivered over 50% of colder second halves, the only time that has happened.       

     

    1592780652_FrequencySecondHalfMarchcolder.thumb.jpg.be6e9243749c4939a31e9fabc40c8b9f.jpg 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 4.4C -1.1C below normal, Rainfall 53.8mm 88.8% of the monthly average

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.1c to the 13th

    0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.1c on the 12th & 13th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections...

    Mar14Proj.thumb.png.5e101a84890aac6301196777a8ab2efa.png Mar14Prob.thumb.png.61fb49b578d5c968a48177f670c9d5f7.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 40.7% (2 days ago was 34.3%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔺 to 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.4%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 56.5% (2 days ago was 63.3%)

    GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 6.9C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Assuming the 5.1C stays stead and becomes the mean CET for the first 14 days of March, then the difference in Mean CET between the first 14 days of March and the first 14 days of January converts to this...

     

    1769939899_JanvMarfirst14daydifference.thumb.jpg.8c90f1399e6b9932d1cc2e4ff5abbda2.jpg

    As in so many other measurements the rise in the mean is noticeable between the late Seventies and early 2000s, though is less pronounced, with, of course, the rise in January temperatures offsetting the difference. I would say as well the growth in the difference that can be seen takes place earlier than some other indicators.

    However, the's been a steady decline in the last few years back down to the levels  of 100 years ago, to before the point in time where there was a sustained period of a much smaller average difference.  I wonder if its indicative of a change back as it's something I've seen regularly in such charts.  I don't mean we are reverting to the equivalent temperatures of 100 years ago, but it's more in relation to the patterns settling down again  after the significant temperature rises of the 1990 and early 2000s.  Maybe global warming has peaked?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A colder than average first half to March just about against the running 61-90 mean, many a month in the last 10 years we haven't been able to say this about any calandar month... Odds on a colder than average March against 61-90 average probably 50, 50 at this stage, but long way to go..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    A colder than average first half to March just about against the running 61-90 mean, many a month in the last 10 years we haven't been able to say this about any calandar month... Odds on a colder than average March against 61-90 average probably 50, 50 at this stage, but long way to go..

    I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    12 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

    Quite possibly but don't rule it out, a warm southerly spell later in the month if it were to verify would see temps shooting upwards, given by late March the sun is gaining much more strength and power.. however, yes odds of something higher than 7 degrees look quite slim at this point in time, lets see where we are in a week's time, we saw what happened in February!, but unlike then, we had the prospect of a very mild spell ahead, and next week is looking average overall at best, cancelled out by something a bit milder than normal early week, to colder than average later in the week at least in the CET zone - based on today's models at least.

    Edited by damianslaw
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    EWP now at about 33 mm (31 mm to 12th) and looks rather dry from here to end of month, 45-50 mm appears to be the most likely finish if current guidance holds. Running the scoring file on 46 mm, I found that the top five (annual) change to virtualsphere, snowray (stays 2nd), Bobd29 (up from 5th), Feb1991blizzard (down from 1st) and relativistic very close behind at 5th (from 7th). 

    Feb1991Blizzard holds on to first place with any outcome above 54 mm to 90 mm, so it wouldn't take much of a change.

    In terms of the March contest, coldest winter (45.3 mm) would finish first, adding to a second in the only other contest entered, not too shabby (just too infrequent). Three are tied second for errors (45.0 mm). Frigid moves up to 25th, stewfox to 8th, and earthshine to  Only two forecasts have much chance of going significantly low (23 mm from I Rem Atl 252 and 15 mm from DRL). Those mentioned are the lowest of our 54 forecasts, virtualsphere at 48 mm has a great chance of moving up the tables, as would the foresome at 50 mm -- Leo97t, the PIT, Relativistic and 3-day late federico who overcomes a four-rank late penalty hit and still moves up the table. These all move up about ten spots with any outcome below about 55 mm. Relativistic and The PIT move to 5th and 6th, federico to 8th, and Leo who was further back to 22nd. Don (75 mm) would drop from third to ninth but the fall would be gentler for each outcome above 55 mm, at 60 mm Don holds off all the 50 mm table climbers. Already making a nice move is Pegg24 (39th to 21st) but at 55 mm (Pegg's forecast) that becomes 39th to about 15th. 

    Godber1 would stay 10th with a 63 mm call, but that could improve several places if the outcome were above 50 mm. 

    As this is all very speculative at this point, I won't post a link to the scoring table, will do that when we have a more reliable estimate. But that's what would happen if 46 mm verified. (probably about the same 44-52, differences would creep in after that). 

    Had a look at the 12z GFS indications for the CET -- while there's no signs of any large scale warming, the colder intervals are certainly muted now and the run looks rather close to average for the next sixteen days, which would tend to place the outcome into the low to middle 6 range. This is the sort of output that can modify to warm spell before you can say "GFS cold bias in FI."

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 4.5C -1.1C below average, Rainfall 55.7mm 91.9% of the monthly average

    Should be a steady rise next five days. Some days comfortably above average before slowing down as we head to the weekend as day time temperatures edge back to around normal but night times remaining above.

    Edited by The PIT
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    For continuity...

     

    5.2c to the 14th

    0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    (0.9 below the 91 to 20 average)

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.2c on the 14th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C -0.9C below average. Rainfall 55.8mm 92.1% of the monthly average.

    Should keep rising steadily bar a slight pause for Friday

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Edmonton is at -1.0c to the 15th..which is +1.5c above normal..thought it would be higher had some very warm daytime temps sometimes up to 10c above normal..however this has been tempered by still cold well below zero nights.

    Edited by cheeky_monkey
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    On 12/03/2021 at 11:14, Relativistic said:

    Relative warmth in the second half of the year is a strange phenomenon that manifests itself in the monthly records too. With the exception of April, the first half of the year is dominated by older records, while the records from the second half of the year have all occurred since 1990:

     

    January: 1921

    February: 1869

    March: 1957

    April: 2011

    May: 1833

    June: 1846

    July: 2006

    August: 1995

    September: 2006

    October: 2001

    November: 1994

    December: 2015

     

    Not something I have an explanation for.

    It actually makes some sense. If the changes in the UK climate were down to solar input or synoptics, then you'd have a fairly even distribution of modern warm records throughout the year. As it stands, you could argue months more reliant on latent heat (which is now harder to lose in a world with higher concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere) would be more likely to break records than those on the upward curve which are still more reliant on solar input / synoptics. This is particularly magnified in the UK which has a climate heavily influenced by sea temperatures which take even longer to cool down than land. Its probably also a good explanation for why easterlies can still have just as much bite as in the past, but any direction with a long sea track (northerly, north-westerly) is becoming increasingly feeble.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Looking at the months in the 21st Century as they rank in order of warmest to coldest out of the 362 years (for Jan and Feb) that we have mean CET monthly data for...

    HOT = Ranks in top 20
    Warm = Goes up to top 75
    Above Average = Goes up to top 181
    Below Average = Up to the top 250
    Cold = In the coldest 112 years 

     

    966747440_21stCenturyMonths.thumb.jpg.14d376867a581ff3e08e70182acf8929.jpg

     

    October stands out with the most "HOT" months, no cold months and only one month out of 21 that has not made the top half of the warmest Octobers.  November is not far behind.

    Every month has had at least 15 years of "Above Average" or better.  But. compared to other months in the warming stakes, February, April, June and July are the most disappointing, However April at least has produced a fair few "HOT" months with June the most disappointing in that respect.

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    For continuity...

     

    5.5c to the 15th (prov 9.0 on 15th)

    0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

    (0.7 below the 91 to 20 average)

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.5c on the 15th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    6 hours ago, reef said:

    It actually makes some sense. If the changes in the UK climate were down to solar input or synoptics, then you'd have a fairly even distribution of modern warm records throughout the year. As it stands, you could argue months more reliant on latent heat (which is now harder to lose in a world with higher concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere) would be more likely to break records than those on the upward curve which are still more reliant on solar input / synoptics. This is particularly magnified in the UK which has a climate heavily influenced by sea temperatures which take even longer to cool down than land. Its probably also a good explanation for why easterlies can still have just as much bite as in the past, but any direction with a long sea track (northerly, north-westerly) is becoming increasingly feeble.

    Yes, that certainly adds up. It also fits nicely with Timmytour's post one below yours, where the Autumn months show a very strong warming signal.

    It would be interesting to see if this signal is replicated in other maritime datasets.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.1C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 56.5mm 93.2% of the monthly average

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.8c to the 16th

    0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.8c on the 16th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    Edited by Summer Sun
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections

    Mar17Proj.thumb.png.3a5cf4ab6247a938a422d8a9fbc371fe.png Mar17Prob.thumb.png.98b4c89cfb7273ba6615911fbf6d85c9.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 61.3% (3 days ago was 40.7%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔺 to 3.2% (3 days ago was 2.8%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 35.5% (3days ago was 56.5%)

    GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.5C above the 91-20 average

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Looking fairly mild in the main for the foreseeable, but some some cooler conditions in the CET zone relative to northern and western parts, should be comfortably in the 6s going into the last third of the month.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-12 09:20:25 Valid: 12/05/2021 0600 - 13/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 12TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Thunderstorm Safety: How to avoid being struck by lightning

      What is the best thing to do if you are caught in a thunderstorm, in the park, on a ramble, playing golf or at the beach? Predicting lightning and where is safe? Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Heavy showers and the risk of thunderstorms continues this week

      The mixed weather continues across the UK. Temperatures staying in the teens but there will be warm sunshine. Heavy downpours move by and the risk of thunderstorms remains. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...