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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up 4.4C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 50.7mm 83.7% of the monthly average

The expected slow down for yesterday and today however the upward pressure will resume next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.1c to the 12th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.1c on the 12th
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models still showing nothing overly mild through the middle of the month and into the last third, long way to go, but likelihood of a below average month compared to 61-90 average even not too tall an order. However, by late March the sun has much more oomph to it, and a spell of southerlies would push temps up markedly. The balance though appears to be shifting towards a colder pattern.

Typing this as I look out at the fells covered in thick snow down to 500m, not been this covered since mid February. The tug between winter and spring that is March, sometimes winter wins out...

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
15 hours ago, Daniel* said:

This is interesting I feel there is a distinct chance.

 

Very long way to go yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Some models are coming out with runs which would give March every chance of producing a second half of the month (16 days) colder than the first half of the month.

But this is by no means an unusual occurrence.... 

 

309526462_HalvesofMArch.thumb.jpg.4a29e3533f2d5e8757047e6ecef01e52.jpg

 

The above diagram shows the difference in the average mean CET between the second half of March and the first half of March with the dips below zero representing those years with colder second halves. It might actually be said we are due a March with a colder second half, as we have now had 5 consecutive years  without one.  Since 1878, the longest such run was one of 10 years which ended in 1952. There has only been one other run of more than 6 years (7 years ending in 1975) and, in addition to those two runs, only two others  have gone more than  5,  with the current run threatening to make it the fifth such run.

Maybe you wouldn't expect to see it so such much the other way around but there has been, in the same time-frame,  a run of 6 and two others of 4 with the most recent ending in 1981.  In fact that more recent run came in a period that saw 8 of of 11 months of March produce a warmer first half, a run that started  in 1975 after the aforementioned run of 7 years of successive warmer 2nd halves. That run of 8 in 11 is the principal reason that by 1994 we had seen a 20 years period that delivered over 50% of colder second halves, the only time that has happened.       

 

1592780652_FrequencySecondHalfMarchcolder.thumb.jpg.be6e9243749c4939a31e9fabc40c8b9f.jpg 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 4.4C -1.1C below normal, Rainfall 53.8mm 88.8% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.1c to the 13th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.1c on the 12th & 13th
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest projections...

Mar14Proj.thumb.png.5e101a84890aac6301196777a8ab2efa.png Mar14Prob.thumb.png.61fb49b578d5c968a48177f670c9d5f7.png

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 40.7% (2 days ago was 34.3%)
Above average (>7.2C) is  to 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.4%)
Below average (<6.2C) is to 56.5% (2 days ago was 63.3%)

GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 6.9C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Assuming the 5.1C stays stead and becomes the mean CET for the first 14 days of March, then the difference in Mean CET between the first 14 days of March and the first 14 days of January converts to this...

 

1769939899_JanvMarfirst14daydifference.thumb.jpg.8c90f1399e6b9932d1cc2e4ff5abbda2.jpg

As in so many other measurements the rise in the mean is noticeable between the late Seventies and early 2000s, though is less pronounced, with, of course, the rise in January temperatures offsetting the difference. I would say as well the growth in the difference that can be seen takes place earlier than some other indicators.

However, the's been a steady decline in the last few years back down to the levels  of 100 years ago, to before the point in time where there was a sustained period of a much smaller average difference.  I wonder if its indicative of a change back as it's something I've seen regularly in such charts.  I don't mean we are reverting to the equivalent temperatures of 100 years ago, but it's more in relation to the patterns settling down again  after the significant temperature rises of the 1990 and early 2000s.  Maybe global warming has peaked?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A colder than average first half to March just about against the running 61-90 mean, many a month in the last 10 years we haven't been able to say this about any calandar month... Odds on a colder than average March against 61-90 average probably 50, 50 at this stage, but long way to go..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A colder than average first half to March just about against the running 61-90 mean, many a month in the last 10 years we haven't been able to say this about any calandar month... Odds on a colder than average March against 61-90 average probably 50, 50 at this stage, but long way to go..

I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
12 minutes ago, Don said:

I think it's probably safe to say my 7C guess will be too high now.

Quite possibly but don't rule it out, a warm southerly spell later in the month if it were to verify would see temps shooting upwards, given by late March the sun is gaining much more strength and power.. however, yes odds of something higher than 7 degrees look quite slim at this point in time, lets see where we are in a week's time, we saw what happened in February!, but unlike then, we had the prospect of a very mild spell ahead, and next week is looking average overall at best, cancelled out by something a bit milder than normal early week, to colder than average later in the week at least in the CET zone - based on today's models at least.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP now at about 33 mm (31 mm to 12th) and looks rather dry from here to end of month, 45-50 mm appears to be the most likely finish if current guidance holds. Running the scoring file on 46 mm, I found that the top five (annual) change to virtualsphere, snowray (stays 2nd), Bobd29 (up from 5th), Feb1991blizzard (down from 1st) and relativistic very close behind at 5th (from 7th). 

Feb1991Blizzard holds on to first place with any outcome above 54 mm to 90 mm, so it wouldn't take much of a change.

In terms of the March contest, coldest winter (45.3 mm) would finish first, adding to a second in the only other contest entered, not too shabby (just too infrequent). Three are tied second for errors (45.0 mm). Frigid moves up to 25th, stewfox to 8th, and earthshine to  Only two forecasts have much chance of going significantly low (23 mm from I Rem Atl 252 and 15 mm from DRL). Those mentioned are the lowest of our 54 forecasts, virtualsphere at 48 mm has a great chance of moving up the tables, as would the foresome at 50 mm -- Leo97t, the PIT, Relativistic and 3-day late federico who overcomes a four-rank late penalty hit and still moves up the table. These all move up about ten spots with any outcome below about 55 mm. Relativistic and The PIT move to 5th and 6th, federico to 8th, and Leo who was further back to 22nd. Don (75 mm) would drop from third to ninth but the fall would be gentler for each outcome above 55 mm, at 60 mm Don holds off all the 50 mm table climbers. Already making a nice move is Pegg24 (39th to 21st) but at 55 mm (Pegg's forecast) that becomes 39th to about 15th. 

Godber1 would stay 10th with a 63 mm call, but that could improve several places if the outcome were above 50 mm. 

As this is all very speculative at this point, I won't post a link to the scoring table, will do that when we have a more reliable estimate. But that's what would happen if 46 mm verified. (probably about the same 44-52, differences would creep in after that). 

Had a look at the 12z GFS indications for the CET -- while there's no signs of any large scale warming, the colder intervals are certainly muted now and the run looks rather close to average for the next sixteen days, which would tend to place the outcome into the low to middle 6 range. This is the sort of output that can modify to warm spell before you can say "GFS cold bias in FI."

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 4.5C -1.1C below average, Rainfall 55.7mm 91.9% of the monthly average

Should be a steady rise next five days. Some days comfortably above average before slowing down as we head to the weekend as day time temperatures edge back to around normal but night times remaining above.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

For continuity...

 

5.2c to the 14th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

(0.9 below the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 5.2c on the 14th
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C -0.9C below average. Rainfall 55.8mm 92.1% of the monthly average.

Should keep rising steadily bar a slight pause for Friday

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Edmonton is at -1.0c to the 15th..which is +1.5c above normal..thought it would be higher had some very warm daytime temps sometimes up to 10c above normal..however this has been tempered by still cold well below zero nights.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
On 12/03/2021 at 11:14, Relativistic said:

Relative warmth in the second half of the year is a strange phenomenon that manifests itself in the monthly records too. With the exception of April, the first half of the year is dominated by older records, while the records from the second half of the year have all occurred since 1990:

 

January: 1921

February: 1869

March: 1957

April: 2011

May: 1833

June: 1846

July: 2006

August: 1995

September: 2006

October: 2001

November: 1994

December: 2015

 

Not something I have an explanation for.

It actually makes some sense. If the changes in the UK climate were down to solar input or synoptics, then you'd have a fairly even distribution of modern warm records throughout the year. As it stands, you could argue months more reliant on latent heat (which is now harder to lose in a world with higher concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere) would be more likely to break records than those on the upward curve which are still more reliant on solar input / synoptics. This is particularly magnified in the UK which has a climate heavily influenced by sea temperatures which take even longer to cool down than land. Its probably also a good explanation for why easterlies can still have just as much bite as in the past, but any direction with a long sea track (northerly, north-westerly) is becoming increasingly feeble.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Looking at the months in the 21st Century as they rank in order of warmest to coldest out of the 362 years (for Jan and Feb) that we have mean CET monthly data for...

HOT = Ranks in top 20
Warm = Goes up to top 75
Above Average = Goes up to top 181
Below Average = Up to the top 250
Cold = In the coldest 112 years 

 

966747440_21stCenturyMonths.thumb.jpg.14d376867a581ff3e08e70182acf8929.jpg

 

October stands out with the most "HOT" months, no cold months and only one month out of 21 that has not made the top half of the warmest Octobers.  November is not far behind.

Every month has had at least 15 years of "Above Average" or better.  But. compared to other months in the warming stakes, February, April, June and July are the most disappointing, However April at least has produced a fair few "HOT" months with June the most disappointing in that respect.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

For continuity...

 

5.5c to the 15th (prov 9.0 on 15th)

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

(0.7 below the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 5.5c on the 15th
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
6 hours ago, reef said:

It actually makes some sense. If the changes in the UK climate were down to solar input or synoptics, then you'd have a fairly even distribution of modern warm records throughout the year. As it stands, you could argue months more reliant on latent heat (which is now harder to lose in a world with higher concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere) would be more likely to break records than those on the upward curve which are still more reliant on solar input / synoptics. This is particularly magnified in the UK which has a climate heavily influenced by sea temperatures which take even longer to cool down than land. Its probably also a good explanation for why easterlies can still have just as much bite as in the past, but any direction with a long sea track (northerly, north-westerly) is becoming increasingly feeble.

Yes, that certainly adds up. It also fits nicely with Timmytour's post one below yours, where the Autumn months show a very strong warming signal.

It would be interesting to see if this signal is replicated in other maritime datasets.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 5.1C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 56.5mm 93.2% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.8c to the 16th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.8c on the 16th
Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest projections

Mar17Proj.thumb.png.3a5cf4ab6247a938a422d8a9fbc371fe.png Mar17Prob.thumb.png.98b4c89cfb7273ba6615911fbf6d85c9.png

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 61.3% (3 days ago was 40.7%)
Above average (>7.2C) is  to 3.2% (3 days ago was 2.8%)
Below average (<6.2C) is to 35.5% (3days ago was 56.5%)

GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.5C above the 91-20 average

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking fairly mild in the main for the foreseeable, but some some cooler conditions in the CET zone relative to northern and western parts, should be comfortably in the 6s going into the last third of the month.

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