Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    March can and often does swing wildly from late winter cold to early spring warmth and back again. Northerlies and easterlies are more likely than in the winter months, and such airstreams can bring cold weather every bit as extreme as can happen in January, given the continent, SSTs and the arctic are only slowly coming out of there coldest state - the lag effect. Conversely a southerly airstream can bring summer warmth think 2012.

    I'm seeing a rather topsy turvy month periods of chilly anticyclonic weather mixed with more disturbed sometimes cold sometimes milder Atlantic weather, at least first 3 weeks. Late March could go one way or the other, cold and unsettled or dry, something much milder and generally dry.

    Not seeing an especially wet month.

    6.5 degree finish, but equal chances could be below average or something much milder. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 247
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Severe cold, heavy snow, massive thunderstorms and bright sunshine.
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

    7.1*c and 66.6 mm please. 🙂👍

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    6.3 and 63mm please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    6.3 and 63mm please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Table of forecasts for March 2021

    The number in brackets beside forecaster name is order of entry (of last revised CET). If EWP not revised at same time, it retains original order but drops by 0.5 to fit between new set of integers for CET order. Anyone revising only EWP receives a similar new EWP entry between two CET forecast entries on either side. Late entries are L1-1 to L1-?? for one day late, L2-1 etc for two days late, L3-1 etc for three days late. No entries accepted after three days of month being predicted. 

    CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER ________________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER

    12.0 _ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted ( 13 ) _______________6.9 __ 80.0 __ Summer18 ( 14 ) ____________

     8.3 __ 23.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 05 ) ________6.9 __ 58.0 __ weather-history ( 20 ) ___________

     8.0 __ 52.0 __ bobd29 ( 09 ) _________________________ 6.9 __ 65.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 ) ___________

     8.0 _ 50.0 __ The PIT ( 25 )  __________________________ 6.8 __ 89.0 __ Timmytour ( 01 ) _________________

     7.9 _ 45.0 __ Earthshine ( L1-4 ) _____________________

     7.8 __ 52.8 __ noname_weather ( 40 ) _______________ 6.8 __ 60.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 02 ) ___________

     7.6 __ 55.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 16 ) ___________________ 6.8 __ 55.0 __ Pegg24 ( 29 ) _____________________ 

     7.6 __ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 27 ) ____________________ 6.8 __ ------ __ Man Without Beard ( 31 ) ________

     7.6 __ 72.5 __ J10 ( 48 ) ______________________________ 6.7 __ 63.0 __ SteveB ( 11 ) _____________________ 

     7.5 __ 66.0 __ CheesepuffScott ( 37 ) ________________ 6.7 __ 59.0 __ seaside60 ( 32 ) __________________

     7.4 __ 75.0 __ Stationary Front ( 18 ) ________________ 6.7 __ 55.0 __ Norrance ( 34 ) ___________________

     7.4 __ 57.0 __ Reef ( 26 ) ____________________________  6.7 __ 65.4 __ 1991-2020 average _______________ 

     7.4 __ 65.0 __ General Cluster ( 36, 11.5 ) ____________ 6.6 __ ------ __ Typhoon John ( 12 ) ______________

     7.3 __ 65.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 30,6.5 ) _____________ 6.6 __ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 average _______________

     7.3 __ ------- __ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-6 ) ______________ 6.5 __ 75.0 __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ___________________

     7.3 __ 50.0 __ Federico ( L3-1 ) ______________________ 6.5 __ ------ __ damianslaw ( 44 ) _________________

     7.2 __ 75.0 __ Born From The Void ( 39 ) _____________6.5 __ 65.0 __ davehsug ( 47 ) _____________________

     7.2 __ 72.0 __ February1978 ( 46 ) ___________________ 6.5 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 51 ) ___________

     7.2 __ 85.0 __ Polar Gael ( 54 ) _______________________ 6.4 __ 75.0 __ Mulzy ( 28 ) _______________________

     7.1 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 07 ) ________________  6.3 __ 63.0 __ godber 1 ( 50 ) ____________________

    7.1 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 15 ) _______________________ 6.3 __ 63.0 __ jonboy ( 53 ) ______________________

    ______________________________________________________ 6.3 __ 57.0 __ Emmett Garland ( L2-1 ) __________

     7.1 __ 45.0 __ stewfox ( 23 ) __________________________6.2 __ 78.0 __ Joneseye ( 17 ) ____________________

     7.1 __ 45.3 __ coldest winter ( 24 ) ___________________ 6.2 __ 58.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 21 ) __________

    ______________________________________________________ 6.2 _ 105.0 __ Blast from the Past ( L1-3 ) _______

     7.1 __ 69.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) _____________________6.0 __ 88.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 06 ) _______________

    ______________________________________________________ 6.0 __ 50.0 __ Relativistic ( L1-5 ) ________________

     7.1 __ 66.6 __ 2010cold ( 45 ) ________________________ 5.8 __ 75.0 __ Jeff C ( 08 ) ________________________

     7.0 __ 15.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 10 ) ________________ 5.7 __ 45.0 __ Frigid ( 04 ) ________________________

     7.0 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 22 ) __________________________ 5.7 __ 83.0 __ daniel* ( 38 ) ______________________

    ______________________________________________________ 5.6 __ ------- __ Kentish Man ( L1-7 ) _____________

     7.0 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley ( 33 ) _____________________ 5.4 __ 66.0 __ NeilN ( 49 ) _______________________

     7.0 __ 70.0 __ Don ( 43 ) _____________________________ 5.3 __ 48.0 __ virtualsphere ( 03 ) _______________

     7.0 __ 56.0 __ stargazer ( 52 ) ________________________ 5.3 __ 58.0 __ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _________

     7.0 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO ( L1-1 ) _______________________ 5.2 __ 54.0 __ snowray ( L1-2 ) __________________

     6.9__ 63.0 __ consensus _______________________________

    __ 54 on time forecasts, seven more that are one day late, one each 2, 3 days late, total 63 ...

    ... consensus 6.9 (median) __ later forecasts will be added to table __

    =========================

    EWP Forecasts in order

    200_LG .. 105_BFTP^ .. 96_wx26 .. 90_DR(S)^ .. 89_Tim .. 88_shil .. 85_PG .. 83_dan .. 80_sum18, .. 78_Jones

     .. 75_Jeff, SF, syed, mul, BFTV .. 72.5_J10 ... 72_Feb78 ... 71.5_81-10 ... 70_Don ... 69_MrM ... 66.6_2c ... 66_CPS,NN

     ... 65.4_91-20 ... 65_Feb91, GC, MIA, dave ... 63_Ste, godb, jon, con ... 60_SB ... 59_sea ... 58.8_KW

     ... 58_wxh,WWS ... 57_Reef, EG^^ ... 56_star ... 55.7_RJS ... 55_pegg, Norr ... 54_snow^ ... 52.8_non ... 52_bobd

     ... 50_Leo, PIT, Rel^fed^^^ ... 48_virt ... 45.3_cw ... 45_Frig, stew, earth^ ... 23_IRem ... 15_DRL

    _ 47 on time forecasts, plus five marked one day late (^) , one also two days late (^^)and one more 

    three days late (^^^) ... total 54 ... consensus (median) 63.0 mm.

    ... ... ... consensus (median) 65.0 mm

     

     

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    errors in EWP table, 50 (2) PIT not Reef. davehsug 6.5, 65 mm
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    7.2C and 85.0mm for me please. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    J10, the above appears to be on time, it was posted pretty much on the stroke of midnight ... I am just posting this for clarification and forecasts appearing after this post are going to be late one day (to three days). You can still enter with the late penalties though. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    7.0c and 90 mm please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    5.2c and 54mm please. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    6.2c and  105mm

     

    BFTP

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    6.0C and 50mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    7.3C please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

    5.6C thanks

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2020 extremes

     

    DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ________ CET date, cum ___ Running CET extreme values

    01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.7 (1878.) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)
    02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878,1999).-3.0 (2018.) 
    03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.1 (1965)
    04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.1 (1859) ... ... -1.9 (1965)
    05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1909)

    06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
    07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
    08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
    09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
    10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

    11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
    12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
    13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
    14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
    15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

    16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
    17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845)
    18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
    19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
    20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

    21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931).-1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
    22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
    23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945).-0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
    24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
    25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)
    26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ...... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)

    27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)

    28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998).-0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
    29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
    30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)

    31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

    ________________________________________________________________________

    ^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th. 

    ** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

    ________________________________________________________________________

    1991-2020 daily and running CET values

    1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6

    2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6

    3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6

    4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7

    5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.74

    ____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________

     

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.0c to the 1st

    0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.0cabove the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.0c to the 1st
    Current low this month 4.0c to the 1st

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    First projections for March

    March2Project.thumb.png.4fa1461a5811bccf02d0f093e852bb0f.png March2Prob.thumb.png.43e1dcd669ca8fcc5caf58ff4ede5919.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 26%
    Above average (>7.2C) is 5%
    Below average (<6.2C) is 69%

    GFS for the 2nd to 7th looks like average about 4.3C, or 1.1C below the 91-20 average


    EDIT: Alternatively, quite a different picture when using the 1961-90 average (1C colder).

    Close to average (5.2 to 6.2C) is 31%
    Above average (>6.2C) is 30%
    Below average (<5.2C) is 39%

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A chilly start to March on the cards, nothing overly mild at all for the foreseeable despite some places seeing low teen maxima, nights will be cold and in places low-mid single digit figures. 4 degrees is notably cold for early March, but not unusual.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: howth,east dublin city

    6.3 degrees and 57mm please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 3

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...