March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

March can and often does swing wildly from late winter cold to early spring warmth and back again. Northerlies and easterlies are more likely than in the winter months, and such airstreams can bring cold weather every bit as extreme as can happen in January, given the continent, SSTs and the arctic are only slowly coming out of there coldest state - the lag effect. Conversely a southerly airstream can bring summer warmth think 2012.

I'm seeing a rather topsy turvy month periods of chilly anticyclonic weather mixed with more disturbed sometimes cold sometimes milder Atlantic weather, at least first 3 weeks. Late March could go one way or the other, cold and unsettled or dry, something much milder and generally dry.

Not seeing an especially wet month.

6.5 degree finish, but equal chances could be below average or something much milder. 

[2010cold]

7.1*c and 66.6 mm please.

[February1978]

Congested field - lots of people around average....!

7.2c & 72mm please

[davehsug]

6.5C & 65mm pls

[J10]

7.6c and  72.5mm.

[NeilN]

5.4c and 66mm

[Godber 1]

6.3 and 63mm please.

[Duncan McAlister]

6.5 for me please.

[Stargazer]

7.0 and 56mm please 

[jonboy]

6.3 and 63mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for March 2021

The number in brackets beside forecaster name is order of entry (of last revised CET). If EWP not revised at same time, it retains original order but drops by 0.5 to fit between new set of integers for CET order. Anyone revising only EWP receives a similar new EWP entry between two CET forecast entries on either side. Late entries are L1-1 to L1-?? for one day late, L2-1 etc for two days late, L3-1 etc for three days late. No entries accepted after three days of month being predicted. 

CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER ________________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER

12.0 _ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted ( 13 ) _______________6.9 __ 80.0 __ Summer18 ( 14 ) ____________

 8.3 __ 23.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 05 ) ________6.9 __ 58.0 __ weather-history ( 20 ) ___________

 8.0 __ 52.0 __ bobd29 ( 09 ) _________________________ 6.9 __ 65.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 ) ___________

 8.0 _ 50.0 __ The PIT ( 25 )  __________________________ 6.8 __ 89.0 __ Timmytour ( 01 ) _________________

 7.9 _ 45.0 __ Earthshine ( L1-4 ) _____________________

 7.8 __ 52.8 __ noname_weather ( 40 ) _______________ 6.8 __ 60.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 02 ) ___________

 7.6 __ 55.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 16 ) ___________________ 6.8 __ 55.0 __ Pegg24 ( 29 ) _____________________ 

 7.6 __ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 27 ) ____________________ 6.8 __ ------ __ Man Without Beard ( 31 ) ________

 7.6 __ 72.5 __ J10 ( 48 ) ______________________________ 6.7 __ 63.0 __ SteveB ( 11 ) _____________________ 

 7.5 __ 66.0 __ CheesepuffScott ( 37 ) ________________ 6.7 __ 59.0 __ seaside60 ( 32 ) __________________

 7.4 __ 75.0 __ Stationary Front ( 18 ) ________________ 6.7 __ 55.0 __ Norrance ( 34 ) ___________________

 7.4 __ 57.0 __ Reef ( 26 ) ____________________________  6.7 __ 65.4 __ 1991-2020 average _______________ 

 7.4 __ 65.0 __ General Cluster ( 36, 11.5 ) ____________ 6.6 __ ------ __ Typhoon John ( 12 ) ______________

 7.3 __ 65.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 30,6.5 ) _____________ 6.6 __ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 average _______________

 7.3 __ ------- __ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-6 ) ______________ 6.5 __ 75.0 __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ___________________

 7.3 __ 50.0 __ Federico ( L3-1 ) ______________________ 6.5 __ ------ __ damianslaw ( 44 ) _________________

 7.2 __ 75.0 __ Born From The Void ( 39 ) _____________6.5 __ 65.0 __ davehsug ( 47 ) _____________________

 7.2 __ 72.0 __ February1978 ( 46 ) ___________________ 6.5 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 51 ) ___________

 7.2 __ 85.0 __ Polar Gael ( 54 ) _______________________ 6.4 __ 75.0 __ Mulzy ( 28 ) _______________________

 7.1 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 07 ) ________________  6.3 __ 63.0 __ godber 1 ( 50 ) ____________________

7.1 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 15 ) _______________________ 6.3 __ 63.0 __ jonboy ( 53 ) ______________________

______________________________________________________ 6.3 __ 57.0 __ Emmett Garland ( L2-1 ) __________

 7.1 __ 45.0 __ stewfox ( 23 ) __________________________6.2 __ 78.0 __ Joneseye ( 17 ) ____________________

 7.1 __ 45.3 __ coldest winter ( 24 ) ___________________ 6.2 __ 58.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 21 ) __________

______________________________________________________ 6.2 _ 105.0 __ Blast from the Past ( L1-3 ) _______

 7.1 __ 69.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) _____________________6.0 __ 88.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 06 ) _______________

______________________________________________________ 6.0 __ 50.0 __ Relativistic ( L1-5 ) ________________

 7.1 __ 66.6 __ 2010cold ( 45 ) ________________________ 5.8 __ 75.0 __ Jeff C ( 08 ) ________________________

 7.0 __ 15.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 10 ) ________________ 5.7 __ 45.0 __ Frigid ( 04 ) ________________________

 7.0 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 22 ) __________________________ 5.7 __ 83.0 __ daniel* ( 38 ) ______________________

______________________________________________________ 5.6 __ ------- __ Kentish Man ( L1-7 ) _____________

 7.0 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley ( 33 ) _____________________ 5.4 __ 66.0 __ NeilN ( 49 ) _______________________

 7.0 __ 70.0 __ Don ( 43 ) _____________________________ 5.3 __ 48.0 __ virtualsphere ( 03 ) _______________

 7.0 __ 56.0 __ stargazer ( 52 ) ________________________ 5.3 __ 58.0 __ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _________

 7.0 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO ( L1-1 ) _______________________ 5.2 __ 54.0 __ snowray ( L1-2 ) __________________

 6.9__ 63.0 __ consensus _______________________________

__ 54 on time forecasts, seven more that are one day late, one each 2, 3 days late, total 63 ...

... consensus 6.9 (median) __ later forecasts will be added to table __

=========================

EWP Forecasts in order

200_LG .. 105_BFTP^ .. 96_wx26 .. 90_DR(S)^ .. 89_Tim .. 88_shil .. 85_PG .. 83_dan .. 80_sum18, .. 78_Jones

 .. 75_Jeff, SF, syed, mul, BFTV .. 72.5_J10 ... 72_Feb78 ... 71.5_81-10 ... 70_Don ... 69_MrM ... 66.6_2c ... 66_CPS,NN

 ... 65.4_91-20 ... 65_Feb91, GC, MIA, dave ... 63_Ste, godb, jon, con ... 60_SB ... 59_sea ... 58.8_KW

 ... 58_wxh,WWS ... 57_Reef, EG^^ ... 56_star ... 55.7_RJS ... 55_pegg, Norr ... 54_snow^ ... 52.8_non ... 52_bobd

 ... 50_Leo, PIT, Rel^fed^^^ ... 48_virt ... 45.3_cw ... 45_Frig, stew, earth^ ... 23_IRem ... 15_DRL

_ 47 on time forecasts, plus five marked one day late (^) , one also two days late (^^)and one more 

three days late (^^^) ... total 54 ... consensus (median) 63.0 mm.

... ... ... consensus (median) 65.0 mm

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Roger J Smith
errors in EWP table, 50 (2) PIT not Reef. davehsug 6.5, 65 mm

[Polar Gael]

7.2C and 85.0mm for me please. 

[Roger J Smith]

J10, the above appears to be on time, it was posted pretty much on the stroke of midnight ... I am just posting this for clarification and forecasts appearing after this post are going to be late one day (to three days). You can still enter with the late penalties though. 

[DR(S)NO]

7.0c and 90 mm please

[snowray]

5.2c and 54mm please. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6.2c and  105mm

 

BFTP

[Earthshine]

7.9C and 45mm please!

[Relativistic]

6.0C and 50mm.

[Derecho]

7.3C please

[Kentish Man]

5.6C thanks

 

[Roger J Smith]

March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2020 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ________ CET date, cum ___ Running CET extreme values

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.7 (1878.) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878,1999).-3.0 (2018.) 
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.1 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.1 (1859) ... ... -1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1909)

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931).-1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945).-0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)
26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ...... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)

27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)

28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998).-0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

________________________________________________________________________

^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th. 

** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and running CET values

1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6

2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6

3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6

4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7

5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.74

____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

4.0c to the 1st

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0cabove the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 4.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 4.0c to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

First projections for March

 

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 26%
Above average (>7.2C) is 5%
Below average (<6.2C) is 69%

GFS for the 2nd to 7th looks like average about 4.3C, or 1.1C below the 91-20 average


EDIT: Alternatively, quite a different picture when using the 1961-90 average (1C colder).

Close to average (5.2 to 6.2C) is 31%
Above average (>6.2C) is 30%
Below average (<5.2C) is 39%

Edited March 2, 2021 by BornFromTheVoid

[damianslaw]

A chilly start to March on the cards, nothing overly mild at all for the foreseeable despite some places seeing low teen maxima, nights will be cold and in places low-mid single digit figures. 4 degrees is notably cold for early March, but not unusual.

[emmett garland]

6.3 degrees and 57mm please