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Model output discussion 10/02/21


Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon, Surrey
  • Location: Croydon, Surrey
    12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    You look good for 16C tomorrow - half an hour drive down the road in Crawley..maximum of 12/13C! This is solely going with the UKV/Met Office charts though.

    Tuesday of course more widespread warmth.

    15:00

    D3A288F1-BAFC-4876-82EA-5E4F6EB34BC6.thumb.png.5a67442974bdf0a1b9988a15517e354e.pngCE540C9F-7299-4E82-83CB-E1350DFAA0C8.thumb.png.818f1db8c4e95cccb4c40345f26b5dfd.png
     

    Wednesday still up for grabs! Swinging back and forth every run with regards to warmth further North.

    15:00

    60A53018-A353-4221-9F84-B4CD4762F41E.thumb.png.9ab9970499b507b1510ff5d8306cf082.pngF22F04CB-4358-4FF5-9E45-B148CACD9934.thumb.png.6a37dc3ee2e9966b117fb0d207577e4f.png
     

    Thanks for that, it was similar yesterday when we went out for our walk. Around here it was mostly sunny spells, but where we had our walk, it was cold, overcast and several degrees lower and it was barely a few miles down the road! Left the house in a light jacket, but really needed the winter coat for the walk! 

    I always feel that with a S/SW sort of breeze the real warmth hits the usual London hotspots (Heathrow) and places to the NE of here, while it can often be nice in these parts the 'proper' warmth seems to end up elsewhere. I remember last summer when we had that hot spell, the official weather station nearest here didn't get over the 30c mark! 

    I guess the models here are showing similar, we're only 50miles or so from the South Coast so unless the downs get into the act I wonder if that can influence the weather a tad? Either way this is off-topic (sorry mods!) hopefully the weather in 10 days or so time will get more certain so we can pick a day! 

    Edited by magicpatch
    geography fail
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    56 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    You look good for 16C tomorrow - half an hour drive down the road in Crawley...maximum of 12/13C! Bit of a breeze/windy in places.

    The above is solely going by the UKV/Met Office charts though.

    Tuesday of course more widespread warmth.

    15:00

    D3A288F1-BAFC-4876-82EA-5E4F6EB34BC6.thumb.png.5a67442974bdf0a1b9988a15517e354e.pngCE540C9F-7299-4E82-83CB-E1350DFAA0C8.thumb.png.818f1db8c4e95cccb4c40345f26b5dfd.png
     

    Wednesday still up for grabs! Swinging back and forth every run with regards to warmth further North. (Manchester, Leeds ect ect)

    15:00

    60A53018-A353-4221-9F84-B4CD4762F41E.thumb.png.9ab9970499b507b1510ff5d8306cf082.pngF22F04CB-4358-4FF5-9E45-B148CACD9934.thumb.png.6a37dc3ee2e9966b117fb0d207577e4f.png
     

    Looks fantastic for around the Thames estuary region 👌🏖🌞 Might have to have a cheeky sunbathing sesh Tuesday. Any ideas on humidity levels? Being so early in the year I'd expect it won't be that high? We may miss out on all the snow (no more than 2inches at any given time this February) and nothing in Dec/Jan in NW Kent but def get the best of the Spring/Summer conditions and the least (Wind/Rain) which being half Mauritian and working outside mainly I'm not the biggest fan of 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    29 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

    -20 uppers in April? I have never seen a chart like that directly over us in winter nevermind April.

    That has to be one for the archive/weather history museum. Be interesting to know if that has ever happened before . Despite little chance of it happening the fact that these more extreme perts and the very hps being shown over greenland are occuring maybe a sign of bigger changes taking place....

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    GFS op sticking to its guns at 06z with the low developing away from Greenland in a weeks time, wrapping some slightly colder air around it maybe compared with the 0z

    GFS 0z 192h.                                            GFS 06z 186h                                                

    BC8F4AF7-6259-471C-9863-B27DFFA4814B.thumb.png.a551208dab608bf5fc2de18fadbbb50c.png8D2587D7-E58C-453C-A4A1-AC8FAA4A831A.thumb.png.f07016f5477dcf336515f5cfee1e3147.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

    Morning all

    Three pages since I last posted - good mix of analysis! Great to see @IDO and @LRD - knew the models had took a turn for the worse when these lads started posting again. 😉😃

    Thought you both might have joined in with the discussion over the past week with all the great cold/warm charts/runs? 

    I totally agree with them with regards to current runs - definitely not as good as previously for cold/snow lovers further South. 

    IMBY far enough North and West to get in on the action (briefly!) - although most of the UK and Ireland is still at risk of a wintry mix. 

    ECM 192:

    24F450A2-40A2-461B-8C80-D9164BB2D2DA.thumb.gif.ca85b9b1cd595751631bd044b9fd9275.gif928EA58E-5050-4D45-878D-DA3CD9AC2F84.thumb.gif.88acaf3da511b206266786be9ce992a2.gif12E6AFFD-A932-4BA5-AF7A-BC437FEC95F2.thumb.jpeg.865e9bbdf9f42f76a5970ecb39976a2a.jpeg
     

    216:


    4187051B-224D-4F22-A8E2-BCA69C3AAABB.thumb.gif.b39365e0a46a5a4fec9d17dd43131749.gif

    BE840E76-6D0B-4CDE-B32E-588EF2109D87.thumb.gif.ca6fc1ebce7491edfd735961697b6ab0.gif90ED5C5E-84FB-4228-B311-7666C0D4F3FA.thumb.jpeg.3e14d7a46bdba03b268ec5a938dfb8de.jpeg

     

    240:

     

    C5161C62-DF70-4C22-BE4B-008894E718BF.thumb.gif.c2c8bbe6a9e6631875c1b4e94e5aa36d.gifD4474562-0B4B-44BB-9A6A-24DC924D3492.thumb.gif.763662a25002c6d0a29ab31f4bbf2d80.gif0311E9A4-8EE6-4B86-812A-3A742834BEB2.thumb.jpeg.a1f1bde979555bf231efc4c8b47c85f8.jpeg


    GFS for later on the same days above:

    230A3649-FDA3-412A-9080-A41E75E7244A.thumb.png.bd7e1e6420a7c3f5d13579cda7e27847.pngE606E3AC-34B2-4D37-B82E-948F954F1674.thumb.png.753f3da5785a7f4e4b5b147e2bfb3c5e.pngCEFF3E57-A5A5-49A6-A4A0-6CF9A196126C.thumb.png.8d4bdc325a0eebafec4947f3f234f19b.png
     

    All the above subject to many changes at this range - better or worse? Who knows. 😄

    @Alderc get the hat/gloves out tomorrow - chilly on the South Coast - maximum of 11/12C expected for Bournemouth.

    D59EA4BA-CCF7-4C07-BA85-5F13BEA84A79.thumb.png.d08eb5795294a95967c3b6480053ee72.png05883E3F-CFA2-4B9A-963A-49BBDC9BA8E0.thumb.png.f0de3d3462c58257843254644df09970.png

     

    Warmest spots in the UK tomorrow...London area, parts of Norfolk and Lincolnshire. 
    17/18/19C - maybe even the first official 20C of the year. 

    Very jealous - enjoy! 

    Ha! Not sure where you got that impression from. I like the cold but from early/mid Nov - mid/late March please. No interest in April cold weather that, largely, gives us in the south maxes of 7 or 8 degrees and a bit of sleet and hail with some (very) transient snow in the showers and pesky frosts which delay nature's spring bloom. Excellent analysis in your post by the way 👌 

    Until last night I haven't been on here since about late January/early Feb so wouldn't have joined in on any warm weather chat as I've not been paying attention until a couple of days back. Besides celebrating that warmth is a bit hollow when it ain't lasting long and the danger of utter dross is quickly following it!!

    GFS6z similar to its 0z in many ways. Cool down from late Thursday into Friday but little sign of the real cold that was being progged a few days back. Uppers for Monday on GFS 6z - a bit of a turnaround from previous days with cold getting delayed once again:

    image.thumb.png.e5badc916178a747c82efe99d0b8f515.png

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath
  • Location: Haywards Heath

    Has there ever been snow in the south in April that has settled for any length of time? I can remember it snowing heavily in April and as late as May when I was young, but always disappearing quickly.

    Edited by Stav
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The downgrades to any notable cold continue.

    Yesterday I was called out for questioning why there was no talk about the very notable warm spell that is on the way but lots of discussion about the cold spell in FI.

    I think we've seen now why it's called FI. A few people were convinced it was nailed on- nothing is nailed on over a week out.

    Add in the fact that it will be April next week and the odds are increasingly against any notable cold anyway- you need perfection in terms of a setup now.

    That's not to say it won't be chilly and snow/sleet showers aren't uncommon in April.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    The downgrades to any notable cold continue.

    Yesterday I was called out for questioning why there was no talk about the very notable warm spell that is on the way but lots of discussion about the cold spell in FI.

    I think we've seen now why it's called FI. A few people were convinced it was nailed on- nothing is nailed on over a week out.

    Add in the fact that it will be April next week and the odds are increasingly against any notable cold anyway- you need perfection in terms of a setup now.

    That's not to say it won't be chilly and snow/sleet showers aren't uncommon in April.

     

    Yep agree. Of course the proper cold charts might reappear again and verify... even though the trend is moving away from that

    If this does prove to be a damp squib (and what happens from Friday ain't nailed on just yet I don't think - coldies probably still have some hope at this stage), then looking forward to next winter on here, if winter wonderland charts are showing at 192+ hours, we now have a handy reference point for those urging caution - "remember Easter 2021"

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    The downgrades to any notable cold continue.

    That’s misleading, there is no downgrade according to the GEFS 6z mean!! 😛

    A6D37978-ADE0-4081-AAB2-9FE926F483D9.thumb.png.a30beb3c58689d8ab840f1daf5b62b54.png 

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

    That’s misleading, there is no downgrade according to the GEFS 6z! 😛

    A6D37978-ADE0-4081-AAB2-9FE926F483D9.thumb.png.a30beb3c58689d8ab840f1daf5b62b54.png 

     

    That shows cold for Tuesday - for the north anyway. Real cold was showing for Good Friday 2 or 3 days back! So, Scorcher is right in that respect. What was looking to be a very grim, wintry Easter is, at the moment, trending towards bog-standard cool and dry.

    As I say it might change back and cold might be brought forward again. Just commenting on what this morning's charts are showing

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, LRD said:

    That shows cold for Tuesday - for the north anyway. Real cold was showing for Good Friday 2 or 3 days back! So, Scorcher is right in that respect. What was looking to be a very grim, wintry Easter is, at the moment, trending towards bog-standard cool and dry.

    As I say it might change back and cold might be brought forward again. Just commenting on what this morning's charts are showing

    I respectfully disagree..if that is allowed?..the second cold shot (reload) is the one that matters, the first shot always looked weaker, more of a glancing blow whereas the reload is the more powerful cold shot..if it happens of course as it’s currently only a computer projection in FI! 😛 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    1 hour ago, Stav said:

    Has there ever been snow in the south in April that has settled for any length of time? I can remember it snowing heavily in April and as late as May when I was young, but always disappearing quickly.

    The only time snow has lasted the day here in April was 14th April 1999 but that was an organised area of snow that arrived just at the coldest time of the morning and continued until the early afternoon. 6th April 2008 brought decent snowfalls to many southern areas but I’m not sure how much lasted all day. Overall, April snow is fleeting at best.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I respectfully disagree..if that is allowed?..the second cold shot (reload) is the one that matters, the first shot always looked weaker, more of a glancing blow whereas the reload is the more powerful cold shot..if it happens of course as it’s currently only a computer projection in FI! 😛 

    I remember a few days ago, yesterday was the glancing blow and this coming Wednesday was meant to be the reload that matters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I respectfully disagree..if that is allowed?..the second cold shot (reload) is the one that matters, the first shot always looked weaker, more of a glancing blow whereas the reload is the more powerful cold shot..if it happens of course as it’s currently only a computer projection in FI! 😛 

    A bit of an unpleasant, passive/aggressive tone there but never mind!!

    Yes of course you're allowed to disagree. Works both ways of course and I'm allowed to disagree with you, which I'm doing. That's how message boards and forums work.

    Ah cool, it's a "second shot" now is it? Righto

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I respectfully disagree..if that is allowed?..the second cold shot (reload) is the one that matters, the first shot always looked weaker, more of a glancing blow whereas the reload is the more powerful cold shot..if it happens of course as it’s currently only a computer projection in FI! 😛 

    There's little sign of the heat build-up, away down to our SE, downgrading:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Might be some interesting weather coming our way, as we approach May?👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    The only time snow has lasted the day here in April was 14th April 1999 but that was an organised area of snow that arrived just at the coldest time of the morning and continued until the early afternoon. 6th April 2008 brought decent snowfalls to many southern areas but I’m not sure how much lasted all day. Overall, April snow is fleeting at best.

    See historic thread for April snowfalls, there have been a number of notable events in years gone by, but nothing widespread recently since about 2008. Late April 2016 delivered snow cover here and temps freezing at noon, shortlived but notable!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    1 hour ago, LRD said:

    A bit of an unpleasant, passive/aggressive tone there but never mind!!

    Yes of course you're allowed to disagree. Works both ways of course and I'm allowed to disagree with you, which I'm doing. That's how message boards and forums work.

    Ah cool, it's a "second shot" now is it? Righto

    👜

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    From a 500 mb anomaly perspective

    Sunday 28 th

    Ec-gfs, and only ec again, no idea what has happened to GFS input on this link?

    It continues with, for several days now, the pattern of largish upper ridge over south Greenland with a noticeable trough over the UK and down tpwards/off nw Iberia. Previos outputs had shown this as a deeper trough.

    Noaa 6-10 and 8-14 last evening had a similar pattern in western Europe/atlantic to the ec chart; this does suggest that the upper air pattern shown is going to be around for possibly 2 weeks, as of today!

    I would expect, with time, that the ridge will edge in towards the uk giving mostly settled weather after the initial cold outbreak, especially for western areas, nw or sw, just dependent on where the surface high is positioned.

    So a very see-saw range of temperatures over the coming week or so. Will Easter be white? The odds look like no for most from what the models are showing,

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I've just had a look at the GEM. Nuisance cloud is possible in Eastern Britain, including IMBY but overall doesn't look too bad:

    Good Friday:

    image.thumb.png.6970e4af9ce373870db292261123d63c.png

    Easter Saturday:

    image.thumb.png.d6f9728e3115df43e1056fd266655593.png

    Easter Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.41c5de4d068c8a2ee1d9ce7a3ca85b49.png

    A change to colder conditions, albeit pushed back again, eventually gets underway Monday and into the early hours of Tuesday

    image.thumb.png.2463ef699b2f867580dd87640e45e947.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Here’s a Peedie sample from the GEFS 6z to show that there is still plenty of support for an unseasonably cold plunge during early April..frankly, there are too many wintry perturbations to post here..anyway, as I’ve said...there is scope for winter to bite back with a vengeance although a few days ago the models were hinting at Good Friday possibly being white..but now it’s the following week?..or maybe not, the models do like a good tease don’t they coldies? 😛 🥶 

    FC72892C-905D-4121-80C1-8A8B28B499A1.thumb.png.a9a71bdc2bb355311cf34042fcc91a9f.png1DEAFC97-4DF8-4A56-A428-A8D356AE548C.thumb.png.9b5e76d04229d64489bd1aec08f901b1.png4969E78B-F2EB-4D65-986A-60A783970806.thumb.png.8af6f31c3f8fd0f71d5fbb9db41f5f1c.pngA3E5C605-4DFD-465A-ACC1-82EF2919B836.thumb.png.5fa662646602e763c0437ea67f8939dc.pngD9AFCBC2-047C-415C-B895-2BD83B340021.thumb.png.fc3d3a5854823845fcde1ca082831d1f.png74394B88-07C9-48C1-9CF7-B88BC8FF5696.thumb.png.05f619458410e78634eca1e1e2b2824c.pngF7D5FBD9-5BAD-48A2-A7EE-DEC0221E83CC.thumb.png.a9779cd6a3f480108b8ba460b73a4723.pngE6B488CB-D796-4EF4-AFCE-0A22B61D26A7.thumb.png.b665fec3c5f54aca2b2359b2f4d36dcf.png

    just to show how unbiased I am, towards mid april the mean does show signs of improvement! 😉

    598716E0-202B-45F4-A8E6-5256AAFD0E94.thumb.png.87a9f5200f8a40a6c81612e1400cc864.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Last time I remember snow hanging around in April was 2013, but it was snow that had fallen in March!

    Looks to me like fairly similar conditions being modelled in that it won't be cold enough to generate snow (down south anyway) but ,if there had been snow around, it wouldn't have been disappearing too fast

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