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Model output discussion 10/02/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Great charts from the gfs if it's cold and possible wintry/snow showers you are after,...like me (i wouldn't mind one last blast)...

but the UKMO says no and i would love the UKMO to come off TBF ,...winter can wait until next,...well,...winter

144.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.94b33566d669aa8d7fb01f5b8d63ddc9.gif

if the gfs was to come off then there would be plenty of convective showers about in an unstable north to NE wind with maybe some thunder snow

lets see where the other models go for the rest of the day.

GEM 12z 144

GEMOPNH12_144_1.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

(Disclaimer about comparing charts from different websites, sorry about that, makes it confusing - at least for me) 

GEM brings the block

GEMOPNH12_204_1.png

GEMOPNH12_204_2.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Just to add a little...

from the anomalies

the 00z EPS/gefs at day ten,there is some differences in how far south the Scandi trough heads and the gefs has this closer to the UK,the EPS less so 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.818a681046450e6cc413e645eed404b7.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.e236e4d0698064bf835c702c85cdd363.png

Looking at the day 8 EPS ens tactile,this shows a -NAO ridge in the Atlantic

20210326165205-414627a44737edee2530e2fd7e5a27baf6cd2ac6.thumb.png.238aab097b0533631dae141ab3ade451.png

EPS day ten and ext show quite an Atlantic block there but split possibilities past day ten.

20210326165229-f18f23db66042270999a7634f24e5eaeca4e873e.thumb.png.c5909aec619e12672bcfe43fa882dac5.png20210326165246-cb8c043249574f18cf4579d66dbbbdddefdcb768.thumb.png.84dadd462c4b7a762faad50bbc87791f.png

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

It's becoming a unanimous decision on the gefs ens that it will turn colder as we go into April

means at 144 and 180 plus the gefs ens graph...

gensnh-31-1-144.thumb.png.1ad47f1e6e68a72a4470c201ad8f945f.pnggensnh-31-1-180.thumb.png.0d4e913c4b8343e9a31d02a905d0ea50.pngens_image.thumb.png.db1551940fe1c063328bc0bc42bc09f0.png

but with the UKMO saying no (at this stage) i think more runs are needed until this is settled 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

It’s time to get the Bunting out chaps..we have a HOT topic!...anyway, just looked at the GEFS 12z for Easter weekend and there’s strong support it would be unseasonably cold with some snow around..yes, some snow around so it could be a white Easter at times for some of us! ❄️..   ...further ahead, as I said yesterday etc..I think there’s arctic reload potential following the initial cold surge southwards...in the meantime...it looks like becoming unseasonably warm across the south early next week..24c 75f perhaps on Tuesday for parts of the s / se? ...have a blessed evening  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

I will have some of what the control is havin at the mo,...a reload from the north,this could be potent.

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.994c61f5d802f3fdfc340f4e04a4699d.pnggensnh-0-0-240.thumb.png.7c08913266ad7354eb609e23056f239d.png

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It’s time to get the Bunting out chaps..we have a HOT topic!...anyway, just looked at the GEFS 12z for Easter weekend and there’s strong support it would be unseasonably cold with some snow around..yes, some snow around so it could be a white Easter at times for some of us! ❄️..   ...further ahead, as I said yesterday etc..I think there’s arctic reload potential following the initial cold surge southwards...in the meantime...it looks like becoming unseasonably warm across the south early next week..24c 75f perhaps on Tuesday for parts of the s / se? ...have a blessed evening  

Sounds like easter will be eggciting

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Fingers crossed the UKMO is onto something this evening- looks like it may want to do away with the northerly.

I still think the GFS is being too hasty with the breakdown of the warm conditions later on Tuesday. It has already backed down on its initial modelling of the breakdown and Tuesday is now looking pretty nailed on to be a warm and sunny day for most of us, certainly England and Wales.

 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Great charts from the gfs if it's cold and possible wintry/snow showers you are after,...like me (i wouldn't mind one last blast)...

but the UKMO says no and i would love the UKMO to come off TBF ,...winter can wait until next,...well,...winter

144.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.94b33566d669aa8d7fb01f5b8d63ddc9.gif

if the gfs was to come off then there would be plenty of convective showers about in an unstable north to NE wind with maybe some thunder snow

lets see where the other models go for the rest of the day.

Yes after the warm/very warm spell the gfs 12z keeps most of uk in at least -5 850s from 31st March through to 9th April. Plenty of scope for wintry showers in this time as you say but also regretably night time frosts...

Edited by minus10
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Some extreme ensembles on the 12z gefs which would provide pretty brutal conditions for early April.

 

12z GEFS mean supports the possibilities.

 

gensnh-28-1-264.thumb.png.7865d053c48be192f955294a59e12463.pnggensnh-28-0-264.thumb.png.fa81216b091201edef14e6b60c56450a.png

 

gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.a69141c67708aae57184f7c5075b9e44.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

ECM gone a bit GEM

ECH1-192.gif

ECH0-192.gif

Yes it's that second shot that looks potentially brutal for the time of year (around 4th April). Could come to nothing though if it goes too W based and encourages LP development to the W of us. We could end up in S'lys instead!

If the N'ly does happen, however, it looks like like uppers have the potential to go a way below -10

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Much better output this evening from ECM & UKMO, a much slower breakdown into the cold and ECM produces a belter of a day on Wednesday that could put the March record under threat and even Thursday stays mid to high teens in the south west before the colder air comes in for Easter Friday. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Griff said:

Yes ominous... 

 

ECH0-216.gif

Would be interesting from a nature perspective. With the depth of cold and low dew points that have been shown on recent output, I'd expect emerging leaves etc to be frostbitten and regrowth might be postponed until later into May? Such anomalies are always intriguing!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Would be interesting from a nature perspective. With the depth of cold and low dew points that have been shown on recent output, I'd expect emerging leaves etc to be frostbitten and regrowth might be postponed until later into May? Such anomalies are always intriguing!

Off topic I know, but frosts throughout May last year IMBY and very little lasting damage... 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Griff said:

Off topic I know, but frosts throughout May last year IMBY and very little lasting damage... 

Yes would have to go a fair way below freezing due to residual day time heating and shorter night. You'd need temperatures down to -4 or -5.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes ominous... 

 

ECH0-216.gif

A few tweaks and it would of been a boom from me

F671CD86-9BE8-49B2-A9D6-EFAF4D998C84.png

0337A0D2-57E4-4F0C-A063-EEE3B862E681.png

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

One of those classic spring switcharound on the way, warm followed by cold. How warm, how cold remains to be seen. ECM and GFS both going for a potent blast of arctic air over Easter, very potent as well. UKMO doesn't go out as far, but there are strong signals for a pool of very cold uppers to be released from a very cold arctic.. in the meantime some places may see a bit of snow overnight. The Joy's of see-saw spring .

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