Model output discussion 10/02/21

[markw2680]

Tbh I’m actually looking forward to something a bit milder, I love the cold and snow but working in a garage in this weather is almost unbearable, let’s have a mild few days and then back to cold and snow again.

[DavidS]

I wouldn't give up on further wintry weather yet. The short to medium term isn’t favourable for cold for the UK, but while the models are showing the potential for amplification (albeit not currently favourably placed) and higher pressure over the Arctic, I think Coldies should retain their interest.

[mulzy]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Haven't these been flipping around a lot recently, though?

Yes they have - should be taken with a truck load of salt.  I am sure there will be a cold cluster in the extended period.  Even though the mean suggests mild and dry, move the whole pattern north west by a thousand miles (!!) then cold and snowy especially for the southern half of the country could be the outcome.

[Don]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Yes they have - should be taken with a truck load of salt.  I am sure there will be a cold cluster in the extended period.  Even though the mean suggests mild and dry, move the whole pattern north west by a thousand miles (!!) then cold and snowy especially for the southern half of the country could be the outcome.

Which would be inline with the latest Metoffice outlook.

[PUTIN]

Just now, Don said:

Which would be inline with the latest Metoffice outlook.

Already out of date unfortunately. Look at 2pm today by which time they will have hopefully updated to reflect latest prognosis.

[Don]

Just now, PUTIN said:

Already out of date unfortunately. Look at 2pm today by which time they will have hopefully updated to reflect latest prognosis.

If they agree.  We will see.

[ICE COLD]

Shall we all prey for the cobra run in the GEFS

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Game over as far as I can see with regards a decent snowy breakdown , and probably for Winter .........................IMO

It would be nice to have a spring like March for a change after this epic winter  

[winterof79]

Spring not sprung yet

[adrianh]

We aren't going to extend the current cold spell past Sunday but the overall pattern doesn't look too bad to me in the medium term with wedges of high pressure to the north of the UK

[Paul33]

46 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh I’m actually looking forward to something a bit milder, I love the cold and snow but working in a garage in this weather is almost unbearable, let’s have a mild few days and then back to cold and snow again.

Surely you are used to having a blue nose !!! #UTV

[TEITS]

Whilst I don't want to give false hope but there is an outside chance of a sudden, massive backtrack from the models as early as next Tues.

Whilst an outsider I wouldn't completely dismiss the disruption from the low going SE rather than NE. This could potentially have a massive change in the output, even allowing a bitter E,ly back in.

[Tim Bland]

Below is the sort of pattern the meto are expecting so this is something to look out for in the medium to long term. They have given up the ghost on the cold pattern holding and now expect a return end of the month. They mention drier in the north and more chance of disruptive snow in the south Will be nice to get some spring like sunshine in before the next round ..

[Tim Bland]

00z Vs 06z that pretty good agreement at t300 !

[SqueakheartLW]

I know this is significant cherry picking of the ensemble members in each recent run but I just had to do it. Picked out a few of the charts along the way in the few ensembles I have picked out

18z GFS

P27     13th February 0:00     +54 hours     850hpa temp -10.9

P06     17th February 12:00     +162 hours     850hpa temp -12.0

P13     18th February 0:00     +174 hours     850hpa temp -15.7

P27     23rd February 0:00     +294 hours     850hpa temp -11.4

P11     26th February 12:00     +378 hours     850hpa temp -13.7

00z GFS

P17     12th February 06:00     +36 hours     850hpa temp -12.2

P12     18th February 12:00     +180 hours     850hpa temp -15.2

P17     23rd February 0:00     +288 hours     850hpa temp -6.8

P14     24th February 18:00     +330 hours     850hpa temp -11.5

P13     26th February 06:00     +366 hours     850hpa temp -16.6

00z GEM

P01     13th February 06:00     +54 hours     850hpa temp -14.5

P01     18th February 18:00     +186 hours     850hpa temp -10.5

P03     21st February 18:00     +258 hours     850hpa temp -11.6

P18     24th February 18:00     +330 hours     850hpa temp -10.9

[johnholmes]

Thur 11 Feb. 21 and latest update re anomaly charts and ECMWF outputs

I think it is time to get off the fence!

ecmwf showing 500 flow from wsw and surface low near Iceland out to 10 days, 850 temps above zero by Sunday, looks like couple of fronts through outhen to day 10, so tempo 0 or below then back up above zero to 5C or more

Ec shows strongish 500 flow from sw off atlantic from below major trough s of Greenland to ridge n scandinavia/n Russia out to jan-meyen with some indication of extending towards Greenland, flow then into marked trough eastern med/black sea area (no gfs this morning)

Noaa 6-10 shows similar pattern to ec really, major trough extends se towards Iberia with –ve heights in the trough centred around 50n 30w showing 210 dm.

Thus all the anomaly charts, ecmwf suggest a marked change in weather, ecmwf charts show it to begin by Sunday and then out to at least day 10, anomaly charts support this and the 8-14 continues with it. We just have this continued ridging as outlined by noaa 6-10 and any possible effect it may have in the 6-14 day time frame. To me it seems only a slight, well under 50% probability. In there 0400 update UK Met are now supporting the above prediction. I don’t go beyond 14 days so will leave that to others, but UK Met have not yet changed their 15-30 day outlook!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by johnholmes
spelling

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 

, but UK Met have not yet changed their 15-30 day outlook!

this is usually the last thing to flip John - I thought yesterday was weirdly precise at that timescale - I think they will wait for the ec46 to update this evening although it wouldn’t surprise me to surprise me to see the wording a little more vague today 

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - it will flip to mild within next few update, game over now for this winter.

The thing is people have been saying this  for days. It could be that with the stuff we don't get to see that there is a very strong signal for what they are putting out.

[Battleground Snow]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

Whilst I don't want to give false hope but there is an outside chance of a sudden, massive backtrack from the models as early as next Tues.

Whilst an outsider I wouldn't completely dismiss the disruption from the low going SE rather than NE. This could potentially have a massive change in the output, even allowing a bitter E,ly back in.

It's not a bad call to be fair,

I think the one thing preventing  this  at the moment is our old enemy, the cold from north America spilling out into the Atlantic, which is feeding the trough with energy from the contrasting air masses.

On the gif you can see it trying to send WAA up, but it's just going up too far east atm.

Matt H tweet alludes to this too 

One thing that has been notable this year is for low pressure to struggle get very far east. Maybe models will adjust nearer to t0?

So what I think we need to develop is for the trough out in Atlantic to retract further west.

Also on the gif you can see tentative signs of the Arctic high trying to gain strength again, first signs of downwelling? This could assist us if it can set up on our side of the hemisphere..

Finally the MJO is still spinning around in the west Pacific, which should still encourage blocking at short notice. A lot of moving parts at the moment. EC 46 may give move clues later.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Don]

2 hours ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It would be nice to have a spring like March for a change after this epic winter  

Hasn't been an epic winter for everyone!

[Tim Bland]

Meto Long range has already changed, a few days back they were talking about a continuation of the cold ..Now it’s back to average with snow confined to Scottish hills until 25th feb at the earliest.  This is way out of view from ECM / GEM / UKMO and the GFS showing high pressure in FI also fits with their long term thinking. I’m not sure why people think it’s going to change much

[Purga]

New kid on the block ECM parallel shows a potential colder evolution next week with a more SE bias tothe wind direction.

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Purga

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

If I'm reading that correctly, he thinks this current cold spell is the last for winter?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Don said:

If I'm reading that correctly, he thinks this current cold spell is the last for winter?

I think he means this was probably the coldest/snowiest shot of the winter

[Andypvfc]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Hasn't been an epic winter for everyone!

Exactly. What epic winter. . 0 cm of Snow this week, and only minus 5 last night, which was supposed to be the coldest night of Winter. If this week was epic, I dread to think what Boring would be like