Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Frosty.]

Well, I can’t show them all but the GEFS 18z perturbations, on balance are looking anticyclonic towards the end of Mars and into early Avril!  

[Frosty.]

Ditto the GEFS 0z mean longer term, the Easter period may become more settled again?.. following next weeks change to more unsettled, especially further n / nw...the end of March into early next month certainly shows signs of improvement, judging by some of the 0z perturbations....at least across southern u k!...whatever the weather, have a good one!  
 

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Plume anyone?

Gfs 0z shows potential thundery spell for beggining of April. Long way off but nice to see these set ups being shown...

[mushymanrob]

Theres nowt very springlike here, pretty stormy by the look of it.
 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z...Shirley this would feel like spring has sprung??!  

Edited March 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z...Shirley this would feel like spring has sprung??!  

It would... but stop keep calling me Shirley

[Eugene]

15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // 18z also showing that high pressure ridge from the Azores that might just reload, as I said earlier it is a while before summer, but a pattern that is nice to have T306:

Waaay out of the reliable of course, but interesting to see...

Things must be bad if you're using GFS(P) for almost two weeks away. Nothing interesting about that chart either. 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Things must be bad if you're using GFS(P) for almost two weeks away. Nothing interesting about that chart either. 

I respectfully disagree, Mike posted a good chart...and having viewed the GEFS etc..I have a decent feeling that Easter  won’t be too bad..weatherwise!..if I’m wrong, sue me..I don’t have any money too lose anyway!

[minus10]

Oh no,  shirley not gfs ???? (Jff) 

[HellItsHot]

There should be some sort of countdown on here until the pubs open outdoors, and what the models are saying for the big day on April 12th! 

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

There should be some sort of countdown on here until the pubs open outdoors, and what the models are saying for the big day on April 12th! 

Good idea, what ever happens,  I’ve my 8 berth ️at the ready

[minus10]

Not much to say about the 12z GFS run apart from no plume potential as such. Op at lower end of ens towards the latter stages....typical spring patten ....

Just realised the ens are from 6z: sorry.

Edited March 20, 2021 by minus10

[Mike Poole]

It looks like an unsettled blip end of next week, as far as I can see, ECM 12z T240 has things starting to calm down again and warming:

(I miss Meteociel ECM rollout ?)

Edited March 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[minus10]

 

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Not much to say about the 12z GFS run apart from no plume potential as such. Op at lower end of ens towards the latter stages....typical spring patten ....

Just realised the ens are from 6z: sorry.

This is the 12z ens i should have posted.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by minus10

[Mike Poole]

It seems likely that a system from the Atlantic will move in towards the end of next week, what then?  ECM clusters 12z, T192-T240:

So, cluster 1, Atlantic barrels through.

Cluster 2, Scandi block leading to a southerly.

Cluster 3, UK high.

Cluster 4, looks a bit weird to me, and probably won’t happen.  

Anyway, pick the bones out of that, I’m still quietly confident we are slowly edging towards a decent summer....

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z // T210

Maybe the end of a brief unsettled spell, let’s see.  By the way, the reason I only post the GFS // now is because it is the only mainstream run available on Meteociel at the moment.  I could look at other sites.  I just don’t want to.  Part of interpreting the model runs is knowing what the colours relate to, I’m waiting for Meteociel to come back rather than get to grips with other sites for that reason.  

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T264:

Whatever you think of this for now, it looks to me like it bodes well for summer, which is my primary interest on here at this time of year.  

[DR(S)NO]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T264:

Whatever you think of this for now, it looks to me like it bodes well for summer, which is my primary interest on here at this time of year.  

Hi Mike.. out of interest, what is it about this particular chart that bodes well for Summer?

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T264:

Whatever you think of this for now, it looks to me like it bodes well for summer, which is my primary interest on here at this time of year.  

Depends on what type of summer you are wishing for! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hi Mike.. out of interest, what is it about this particular chart that bodes well for Summer?

Looks generally inkeeping with the CFS idea of Azores ridging through April 

By June we see hints of it going for a UK trough, which looks more prominent come July

[minus10]

18 hours ago, minus10 said:

Oh no,  shirley not gfs ???? (Jff) 

0z gfs following same theme as yesterdays 6z at the very end ( jff)....

Edited March 21, 2021 by minus10

[Mike Poole]

9 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hi Mike.. out of interest, what is it about this particular chart that bodes well for Summer?

Azores ridge, and position of jet stream.  It is spring now, of course, but these patterns can reinforce themselves over time,

[ANYWEATHER]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Azores ridge, and position of jet stream.  It is spring now, of course, but these patterns can reinforce themselves over 

I don't really see in all respect what the current charts are showing say anything about our forthcoming summer. If you look back at most of Spring 2007 it was mainly anticyclonic dominated with the Azores high in the driving seat warm and very dry overall....then came Summer 2007 ! Anyway March came in like a Lamb this year and models show the jet stream revving up and March going out like a lion,well perhaps a Tiger!

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I don't really see in all respect what the current charts are showing say anything about our forthcoming summer. If you look back at most of Spring 2007 it was mainly anticyclonic dominated with the Azores high in the driving seat warm and very dry overall....then came Summer 2007 ! Anyway March came in like a Lamb this year and models show the jet stream revving up and March going out like a lion,well perhaps a Tiger!

I take the view that a signs of a reasonable summer can be detected in Spring.  Not from an individual GFS // chart in FI (of course).  But a general signal for a more northerly track of the jet stream and an increased tendency for ridging from the Azores can provide a clue, particularly if it is backed up by what the long range models are saying (GloSea5 suggesting a signal for a warmer and dryer summer at the moment).  SSTs are also relevant - for a hot summer we would like to see self reinforcing signals for ridging from the Azores, which will warm the sea to our SW.  

It is too early to have any confidence at the moment this year, so I’m just commenting on signals as I see them.  

2018 was a classic example of a pattern being set in spring which lasted through to July.

[Frosty.]

Winter is coming guys..in Avril..according too the GEFS pert 22 ...0z!!!!!!!!!!

  

Edited March 21, 2021 by Jon Snow