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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Spring....?

    image.thumb.png.e30e5999d0f7c40b12af22ad7b879376.pngimage.thumb.png.d9045ccbe4acb4a11e981c733780a820.pngimage.thumb.png.50814392124b6cf8bc51ffcb1e92e0c2.pngimage.thumb.png.591b9669001fdac8636b47f6528b81ba.png

    image.thumb.png.66e8ccffeef5393b38c6df63a006bf94.png

    Definitely a roller coaster ride on the 12z gfs...

    Sorry to hear that about your Dad JS. I am sure you help make him laugh and feel happier just as you do us and that is the greatest gift. Stay strong....

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

    Better from the ECM in the latter stages of the run- there does seem to be a good chance that the high will eventually build in a better position to allow some more springlike conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    A blustery and chilly day here in lowland East London but the showers missed us for the most part and it's been reasonable out of the gusty wind.

    The strongly-indicated rise of pressure to the west of Ireland during next week looks set to quieten down the weather and leave a benign evolution albeit perhaps still a little on the chilly side with a N'ly component to the air flow for most in the British Isles.

    T+144 (March 19th) and  T+240 (March 23rd) charts to follow.

    GEM:

    image.thumb.png.0ec2c2124ef1b9332cae404a1dccbb15.pngimage.thumb.png.73e5adfacbbb2fef112e95e654214aa8.png

    ECM:

    image.thumb.png.be9c79a440abf810307918b4d3b04909.pngimage.thumb.png.fcf9f29e78d4e3cd535433661d88dcd0.png

    GFS OP:

    image.thumb.png.3449aa827f59ce4add557eddf49ace9f.pngimage.thumb.png.a2a0b292ac40a160253846c62268e89d.png

    GFS Parallel:

    image.thumb.png.04e44a7aeeef6136b22e50249eb15b07.pngimage.thumb.png.83d3897e950ce99619b8c02dfae7343e.png

    A fair degree of agreement in the short to medium term this evening. The HP builds from the west and ridges to the north west or north west so the possibility of a nagging NE'ly flow into southern and eastern parts. From there, there's not much change to T+240 - Parallel declines the HP rather more quickly and is the most progressive at re-introducing an Atlantic flow while GEM shifts a declining core of heights to the east but both ECM and GFS OP keep the HP close to the British Isles. From there, GFS OP offers a fairly clean and classic path to retrogression and a N'ly air flow as we approach the end of the moth while Parallel is much more unsettled. Control, conversely, digs the trough south into the Atlantic and a mid-latitude block forms over the North Sea and southern Scandinavia with a n ESE'ly flow for southern England.

    It does look settled and quiet in the coming week, probably quite a cloudy GP with the flow of maritime air but in any cloud breaks during the day it will be pleasantly warm but clear skies at night will equal frost (it is still mid March and rural minima can be quite low). The continuation into the final third of the month has three options  and we're a long way from resolution as you might expect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Looks like  winter is not done yet in the south east England.

    ED4319A9-2046-435C-A034-EEF127A1AF43.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    One (last?) blast of winter for the south and east if this was to verify from the ecm 0z, should imagine it would feel quite bitter, especially on the east coast....

    image.thumb.png.6d69e14071ae176a8847fd78b5f1f41a.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Poor model output now beyond the end of next week 5-7days of nuisance late season cold feeding in the from continent. March heading towards being a month devoid of any real warming and distinctly average. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    The gfs op 6z also pointing in that direction although not as severe as the coldest air is further south east.

    image.thumb.png.44cb348ee2330c5532e4178c3b4957c4.png

    Still quite a bit of uncertainty after with some scatter in the ensembles...nothing too severe though..

    image.thumb.png.a8ffca01e5d155e91332a22e17784059.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    So quiet in here, you could almost hear a pin drop..back up Frosty..😳...didn’t I say that already?..I must be suffering from deja-vu?...anyway, the GEFS 6z certainly shows some cold weather during the second half of the week ahead!...where are all the coldies at?😺 🥶...my life may be messed up by family reasons but I still love cold!😜

    60DEDD43-5CB4-4102-AA9D-E2A33BE53638.thumb.png.ad62d29984917cf23d501652da7443a6.png69B52C42-EAD8-41F1-BC17-1F021CBA0547.thumb.png.179451d0168c16b9e87efea14bac1792.pngCD18CC53-2312-4E97-8554-F3C28FD271E4.thumb.png.5de2847b9d0c7badeddc697aec081105.png3F3A0734-6725-46B3-86C5-4A8E6D1918F7.thumb.png.1741cc929884f964e0acc1a09c412177.pngD17F70AE-EDF1-41C3-9782-DF7E422D45EF.thumb.png.554262ec31bc3288c3268e4c48dc3fd9.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I have a feeling the cold will linger for slightly longer this year, and this could turn out to be a poor early summer. Ending the run of nice sunny Mays since 2017, and possibly a poor June in the offing.

    The upshot might be a decent warm spell in July, and sunnier August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

    I have a feeling the cold will linger for slightly longer this year, and this could turn out to be a poor early summer. Ending the run of nice sunny Mays since 2017, and possibly a poor June in the offing.

    The upshot might be a decent warm spell in July, and sunnier August.

    We're overdue a better second half to summer than first half, we've had a run of very good May's and June's in the main, only for things to go to pot come the school summer holidays, even in 2018 the warmth diminished in time for the school holidays. As we know mother nature doesn't keep check of how past summers have panned out.

    Last April - June was a blessing given the situation, weeks of endless blue skies sunshine and warmth it was a major mood booster. I guess this year more than ever we need the same to happen, albeit perhaps later this year, if fingers crossed everything is opened up for July and August. A wet July and August is not many will be wishing or wanting, so I'd be happy to exchange a poor May and June if it means a very good July and August, though personally I prefer warm sunny dry weather in May and June, less intense, less humidity and still the prospect of the long summer ahead.. 

    Back to model thread- sorry but the above probably should go on the Spring thread.. week ahead looking much more settled than the one just gone, but not completely so, the high pressure set to ridge in from tomorrow will most likely have a fair bit of cloud trapped within, and it doesn't look like it will set up in a position to deliver a lengthy blue sky and sunshine day period, though Tuesday and Wednesday look decent especially further north and west, but may be some early frost tempering rise in temps somewhat, it should though feel more like early Spring than late winter.

    Later in the week, a cold shot looks probably more so for the south and east, a long drawn easterly from a cold source, indeed more of a NE flow, possibility of wintry showers and suppressed daytime maxima, cloudy as well, feeling raw. North and western parts could hold onto very pleasant conditions sheltered from the wind, staying dry and sunny with respectable temps.

    Further into second part of March, lots of scatter and uncertainty where heights may eventually position themselves, could be over the UK, to the west, NW, SW or south... lots of options between some springlike warmth, or wintertime cold!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Such an underwhelming outlook, I'm not surprised how quiet it is in here.

    The ECM is showing more of a glancing blow from the cold air tonight. Nowhere near the depth of cold needed this late in the season for the coldies to get excited, but cool enough for there to be an annoyance factor for those of us desperate for something warmer.

    It does look like the potential is there for a warmup as we go into next weekend with the cooler air eventually being cut off.

    West is definitely going to be best over the next week or so. Ireland looks like the place to be- perhaps in the whole of Europe next week. Not often you say that!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.cef33ac7e69e5d4205713587e84aa149.png image.thumb.png.e19afcab343c19a5cd23e925aa16e32f.png

    I'm glad it's mid-March and not mid-February... just imagine the toy-throwing that'd be underway following this embarrassing flip from ECM today!

    The 00z run had -12*C 850s across the middle third of the UK for a time. The 12z barely gets the -5*C isotherm across the southeast.

    Reminds me of 'That ECM' but toned down of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
    49 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Silence is golden... 

    ECMOPNH12_120_1.png

    omega block

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    35 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    image.thumb.png.cef33ac7e69e5d4205713587e84aa149.png image.thumb.png.e19afcab343c19a5cd23e925aa16e32f.png

    I'm glad it's mid-March and not mid-February... just imagine the toy-throwing that'd be underway following this embarrassing flip from ECM today!

    The 00z run had -12*C 850s across the middle third of the UK for a time. The 12z barely gets the -5*C isotherm across the southeast.

    Reminds me of 'That ECM' but toned down of course.

    Quite a shift east of the cold air with the high centred much further west on the ecm op 12z. No incremental change here. Be interesting to see whether some middle ground is reached in the next few days or is this a new signal...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well I’m happy enough with the 12z GEFS mean at T192:

    1952BA26-5FF7-4DE7-99B4-4FFDEB334F0C.thumb.png.bfd23069cf48cf7e2b936886f8b25fda.png

    Obviously the position of the high is uncertain. I’m interested in what the ECM clusters might show on this timescale.  

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    We're overdue a better second half to summer than first half, we've had a run of very good May's and June's in the main, only for things to go to pot come the school summer holidays, even in 2018 the warmth diminished in time for the school holidays. As we know mother nature doesn't keep check of how past summers have panned out.

    Last April - June was a blessing given the situation, weeks of endless blue skies sunshine and warmth it was a major mood booster. I guess this year more than ever we need the same to happen, albeit perhaps later this year, if fingers crossed everything is opened up for July and August. A wet July and August is not many will be wishing or wanting, so I'd be happy to exchange a poor May and June if it means a very good July and August, though personally I prefer warm sunny dry weather in May and June, less intense, less humidity and still the prospect of the long summer ahead.. 

    Back to model thread- sorry but the above probably should go on the Spring thread.. week ahead looking much more settled than the one just gone, but not completely so, the high pressure set to ridge in from tomorrow will most likely have a fair bit of cloud trapped within, and it doesn't look like it will set up in a position to deliver a lengthy blue sky and sunshine day period, though Tuesday and Wednesday look decent especially further north and west, but may be some early frost tempering rise in temps somewhat, it should though feel more like early Spring than late winter.

    Later in the week, a cold shot looks probably more so for the south and east, a long drawn easterly from a cold source, indeed more of a NE flow, possibility of wintry showers and suppressed daytime maxima, cloudy as well, feeling raw. North and western parts could hold onto very pleasant conditions sheltered from the wind, staying dry and sunny with respectable temps.

    Further into second part of March, lots of scatter and uncertainty where heights may eventually position themselves, could be over the UK, to the west, NW, SW or south... lots of options between some springlike warmth, or wintertime cold!

    Yeah, although a poor May and June means we miss out on those longer sunny days. However, I take your point, a decent sunny and warm July and august would still be welcome, as the days are still long enough to enjoy the weather. I’ll take some humid weather, as we will be guaranteed more thunderstorms. I have a feeling we will get more storms this coming summer.

    2020 was good for storms, but the summer was a dull one. A good spring like many have said, but it was a disappointment to lose the sunshine once we moved further into June, and it was only in short bursts on and off between mid June and September.

    That being said, even a poor summer will produce some nice days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    97D75D76-04D0-4D00-A546-E67CA8620382.thumb.png.c019bdd47eed75b3a9b1858767b7c6d8.png

    The story is high pressure for the UK, strong on the first two majority clusters, but close but less strong on the others, but uncertainty about where it goes if it is less strong.

    For the final T264+ timeframe there was just one cluster so not worth posting, obviously uncertainty too great beyond T240.  

    BTW does anyone have a link for a good Atlantic/Europe SST anomaly chart?  I follow this at this time of year and usually use Meteociel but obviously can’t at the mo.  TIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    97D75D76-04D0-4D00-A546-E67CA8620382.thumb.png.c019bdd47eed75b3a9b1858767b7c6d8.png

    The story is high pressure for the UK, strong on the first two majority clusters, but close but less strong on the others, but uncertainty about where it goes if it is less strong.

    For the final T264+ timeframe there was just one cluster so not worth posting, obviously uncertainty too great beyond T240.  

    BTW does anyone have a link for a good Atlantic/Europe SST anomaly chart?  I follow this at this time of year and usually use Meteociel but obviously can’t at the mo.  TIA

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Ecm yes has a big change in synoptics  but all things considered the colder weather from the East will be arriving from as early as Thursday and I expect there will be more tweeks  tommorow . Unfortunately cold laden stratus clouds for southern areas later week  north western Uk holding on to the best of weather. Looking further ahead a very Blocked weather pattern Friend  or Foe ....we will have to see. ,!!!!

    h850t850eu-14.png

    h850t850eu-15.png

    ecmt850.096-2.png

    ecmt850.144-4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    8 hours ago, danthetan said:

    Just out Interest how accurate are these charts they seem so different form the NOOA charts?

    I have no idea but that is a highly rated site

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Thankfully the charts and output showing a biting cold easterly have pretty much gone, to be replaced by something slightly chilly at the end of the week before the high starts to move east and cut the cooler air off completely:

    image.thumb.png.21c375bd87f9f3432a164b6a9ab792d2.pngimage.thumb.png.57aa3027eb6aedc14fc2b8eb08367f3f.pngimage.thumb.png.d1b8ffdc464ec74bcbbb9df388319097.png


    By day 10 the models all have the high pushed away from the UK, with it likely turning more unsettled for the end of March. 






     

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