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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Posted the least and most windy options from the GFS 00z for Thursday. Both charts are showing the time with the peak wind speeds

    Windiest

    Member 23     Thu 12pm     Average wind speed in m/s 18.6     Converted to mph 41.6

    image.thumb.png.0226c166172bfee14c98e3728db036a8.png

    Least but still quite windy chart

    Member 19     Thu 12am     Average wind speed in m/s 11.2     Converted to mph 25.1

    image.thumb.png.d1b8dc2ee30320862698f2231d129799.png

    You can clearly see how much deeper the low pressure is on Member 23 compared with Member 19 and how it is also tracking further south too bringing more of England and Wales into the strongest winds

     

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    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    This would be a stonker if it was mid December.

    image.thumb.png.d0aa831c6c9157de83d27610f474b2a4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)

    Interesting to see the perpetual teasing cold charts in FI 10-14 days away.

     

    And, as usual, there they perpetually stay - in FI - whilst our 'real' weather remains, week by week, decidedly ordinary, notwithstanding its usual variations of settled and unsettled. 

     

    😊

    Edited by PUTIN
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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    The GFS looks like it was more on the money than ECM for the timing of this week's storm and also had the troughing to the north of Ireland bang on from last Friday. The ECM has now fallen in with its american cousin for 0z Thursday. The T+72h fax shows the same trough, results in a real squeeze through Ireland by Wednesday evening and then across the bulk of the UK by 6am Thursday. Going by the GFS, it will be at its worst for most of Ireland, then North Wales, Southern Scotland and Northern England, though windy pretty much everywhere. 

    ECM 00z T+72                                            GFS 06z T+66                                       UKMO Fax 00z T+72

    ecm500_072.thumb.png.5d29f81381575e4ce619ce8cc83bc2a2.pngh500slp.thumb.png.fe0804677ebd074cf5a9c824ef6adf7f.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.16f577ef80c46e530fe1de7889066776.gif

     

    ECM then bringing some colder air further south for Saturday with a bit of repeat of the transient N-S troughing to Ireland (528 south of Cork, Pembrokeshire to Norfolk), GFS not so keen on the troughing this time or bringing the colder air as far south (528 Donegal to Lancashire and Yorkshire). 

    ECM 00z T+120                                       GFS 06z T+114

    ecm500_120.thumb.png.a4fe008d3162c063af3f1a73e837e5c1.png1616372461_h500slp(1).thumb.png.35fe2afa1b8f8424fee82a6dbbbecd3b.png

    Edited by Cambrian
    Label for second GFS chart missing
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    As many of us have predicted, the models now firming up that midweek will be a short unsettled period, followed by a return to high pressure in the vicinity of the UK, here GEM, GFS and ECM at T168 and T240, settled through that period, whether cool or warm flank of the high for us to be decided I think:

    1BAA2D41-FB7E-4FE0-AE27-7E10C3614273.thumb.png.953fde2abc338f048ca94168fd088ea6.png5A2B0694-DF25-43A7-B2FA-CD13123DD6AA.thumb.png.166d169ca34761ddfcaf56ccf80aa13e.png

    B6516564-76F8-4465-8D78-BC18FDC7C2FD.thumb.png.a0925af315aa10096e34c24e55bf9596.pngC9F534D4-A7F9-4D76-80E9-E7AC2E7F65F3.thumb.png.ad525262a3648d63c8045accbb565f3f.png

    2C38B8C5-92EE-4DCD-831B-EB3281EB4740.thumb.gif.f4a4d9c8c858be25205ffb7f98ba7bed.gifD19D8F57-587A-464C-8270-8BCD448FD88C.thumb.gif.41d5929b9207a4fd183e7d1b131629e5.gif

    My interest in this spell is also forward looking - how will the sea temperatures respond to another settled spell, now the sun is gathering strength.  Current SSTs:

    1B928597-07F9-4C17-8BC5-18D5D3F63029.thumb.png.fdcaa1084e3f9438e3b1dcc59777e973.png

    In a way I’d prefer the high SW as per ECM T240 for long term gain!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    I think tea is allowed 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.114c31329d7ecb2c9b91e42ff82672fe.png

    Just wonder what the next frame would have shown.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Quite a few members going very warm end of next week now...

    3D617322-9C75-4353-9410-AA1B911227F5.png

    Hey, Tim, you joining us for the summer chase this year, then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Winter may not be quite done according to this morning GFS abeit been in FI.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    No real change from the last few days modelling. HP building post-d6 but the models still playing with how that develops. This has been the story all winter and we will need a day or more to see how far north the core high moves? The ops push it towards Iceland of the UK at d10:

    gfs>gfs-0-240.thumb.png.4d94c9422f4ae656b866f8a64520acde.png ecm>ECM1-240.thumb.gif.072f69a5a663e885026a495fc63dde9b.gif

    The gefs mean, core over the UK:

    gens-31-1-240.thumb.png.dd953410c4920872a23733eae09e8582.png

    The tPV looks weak and pliable so I would not rule anything out? This is a repeating pattern all winter and cold spells have developed from this setup.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    49 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

    Winter may not be quite done according to this morning GFS abeit been in FI.

    C.S

    I'm pretty sure models were showing snowy charts starting the 18th/19th of March a few days ago and now they're showing it again, so maybe 🤷‍♂️

    ECM  image.thumb.png.7f3b871deca58e29d1e28cb672368f5a.png GFS image.thumb.png.81adf2f21e60705d59561adebd253dbd.png

    I think we'll end up with something like the GEM - I don't mind either way.

    image.thumb.png.97351509f2bcce0d2b57e917f1956636.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.1f183bb92f341a453eb9ad360b6a75da.pngimage.thumb.png.6a9583c6099bcb7a2412f7cfd685b3ce.png

    Good to see a drier and more settled outlook returning after an unsettled week.

    Temperatures very much dependent on where the high ends up.....so we could end up with anything from single figure maxima to mid teens. To be determined.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

     

    image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

     

    image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

    As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    39 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

     

    image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

     

    image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

    As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

    image.thumb.png.231ffc7034e65a63b8efe08db2d0498f.pngimage.thumb.png.c0d3ba85b3c937f27d55923d14859222.pngimage.thumb.png.d7d171ebec970b676a6bcaf5ec7fe87d.png

    ECM op was an outlier at the end of the run in terms of SLP/500/850, so not too much concern there.

    The general trend is good which is the main thing - with mean pressure above 1025mb from day 7 until day 10 and beyond.
    Probably another couple of days before we can start to be more sure about where the high may end up sitting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.231ffc7034e65a63b8efe08db2d0498f.pngimage.thumb.png.c0d3ba85b3c937f27d55923d14859222.pngimage.thumb.png.d7d171ebec970b676a6bcaf5ec7fe87d.png

    ECM op was an outlier at the end of the run in terms of SLP/500/850, so not too much concern there.

    The general trend is good which is the main thing - with mean pressure above 1025mb from day 7 until day 10 and beyond.
    Probably another couple of days before we can start to be more sure about where the high may end up sitting.

    Not as cold but the ECM // supports it.

    image.thumb.png.9f4da24f21b1864d749db79bbc62d1c9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, minus10 said:

    Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

     

    image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

     

    image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

    As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

    I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking this would be horrific in the current situation. The worst case scenario and the most extreme. Seems like even the diehard coldies are looking forward to something warmer now.

    Thankfully there is every chance of the position of the high changing over the next few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS brothers at T192:

    CD4F83FD-2447-41BD-93E1-89D140586A63.thumb.png.4aef61e925432531e5327976a9601222.pngC52BD48F-6E95-4821-BE3A-A8920F10F11C.thumb.png.dd05b68a2f53d58aacc457942c51ed8b.png

    This is the kind of pattern we will want to see imprinted later into summer, so good that it is happening now.  Best bet for a decent summer is jet stream north and reinforcing pattern through SSTs, this isn’t a bad start in early spring. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Having said that the GEM’s gone off on one and brought back winter big time, T192;

    772BC04B-61BE-4E02-8ED3-C2FDFE6F589A.thumb.png.459342b90415570bd8f4d0717cea4f3a.png

    And T240:

    1248C229-6E03-4A84-A4F7-ECE324EAE720.thumb.png.99a33b4c6b3dbe003398394b43c54306.png56224004-732A-470D-A788-C4957D3C645D.thumb.png.d64a2e1db9cb566f11b3da276db8fdf0.png

     

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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