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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes first half of March at least I class as winter still, the bareness in nature also adds to the winter base state, its during the second half we slide into spring proper and nature stirs fully, clocks go forward and it's full throttle ahead...

    Yes I have always described it as the hungriest month of the year for the farm animals with full on winter feeding and up here that can last until mid April to mid May depending on temperatures when there is enough   new growth grass to sustain  cattle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, IDO said:

     

    Little sign of any cold, cooler days IMBY but overall mild more than cold?

    Yes, I think southern snow lovers can probably put away the sledges and snow boots until late November now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    Just now, Don said:

    Yes, I think southern snow lovers can probably put away the sledges and snow boots until late November now!

    I did after several great afternoons powder sledging in knoll park sevenoaks week 2 February..

    Time to move on Don 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    ECM for next Wednesday now more in line with GFS with colder air not extending as far south at that stage. Central pressure of the depression around 948mb on GFS, 952 mb on ECM, both with same track heading over Shetland. Some stormy weather for NW Scotland.

    ECM 00z +144

    ecm500_144.thumb.png.7c52bc070239b92315b2daf5ccb983ba.png

    GFS 06z +138

    1365776948_h500slp(1).thumb.png.0bb5c2cb1dc13b91d3570a4bd6c64a12.png

    The colder air for the south held back a day on the ECM and not so cold for the southern half of the UK as modelled yesterday, hints of a secondary low developing in the main circulation for next Thursday. 

    ECM 00z +168

    2023671133_ecm500.168(1).thumb.png.c9f1c712265126efb75d2a5760ae9705.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Yes, I think southern snow lovers can probably put away the sledges and snow boots until late November now!

    Mmm never discount chance of snow until June, yes chances from April on in the south at least become much slimmer, but often a cold shot from the north can appear out of nowhere coinciding with the disintegration of the PV and cold air spilling out of the arctic.

    This year the PV looks like staying quite robust through March and therefore there will be alot of cold bottled up in the arctic, when released could be potent, though may be a slow release or directed elsewhere.. but April is when this often happens hence the potent northerly  shot, think early April 2008, after a very mild winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    48 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm never discount chance of snow until June, yes chances from April on in the south at least become much slimmer, but often a cold shot from the north can appear out of nowhere coinciding with the disintegration of the PV and cold air spilling out of the arctic.

    This year the PV looks like staying quite robust through March and therefore there will be alot of cold bottled up in the arctic, when released could be potent, though may be a slow release or directed elsewhere.. but April is when this often happens hence the potent northerly  shot, think early April 2008, after a very mild winter!

    Thing is Damien...when is the last time we had snow in June! Its about as likely as a frog with feathers. And even if on the most slightest of chances it did fall,it would be melting on impact. What I do agree with though is we shouldn't discount Snow through till early April this year...Why?? The Vortex as gained quite a bit of strenght!! And this is not uncommon after a major SSW as taken place  for it to gain in more potency at this stage of the year!. So while it may be ticking along strongly right now,when the final break up occurs later this month,there could be quite a spill of cold to lower latitudes! Perhaps more so than normal years when SSW events have not occurred,or occurred earlier in the season. One to watch for sure! There could be some shocks before all is said and done.

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm never discount chance of snow until June, yes chances from April on in the south at least become much slimmer, but often a cold shot from the north can appear out of nowhere coinciding with the disintegration of the PV and cold air spilling out of the arctic.

    This year the PV looks like staying quite robust through March and therefore there will be alot of cold bottled up in the arctic, when released could be potent, though may be a slow release or directed elsewhere.. but April is when this often happens hence the potent northerly  shot, think early April 2008, after a very mild winter!

    Not discounting it but I think the chances are, southern areas have seen their snow now.  However, I think the Midlands northwards have a good chance of seeing more between now and the end of April.  We shall see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    This evening's gfs has some rapid cyclogenisis near the left exit of the jet the middle of next week. Could be quite windy over the north of Scotland for a while if this verified

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5356000.thumb.png.a27e63b31d08d593d02faed2bb7a8d19.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm take a tad more complex but still posibility of some strong winds over northern Scotland. Should be resolved in the next couple of days

    ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5377600.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Dear cold chasers help me out here...OK next week looks a little wild! If you like a little wind and rain that's great stuff...But just feast your eyes on that purple mass of cold towards the NE...All I ask of you this evening is a little help in blowing that towards us!  Trust me I'm blowing like made here..pardon the pun..all is not last dam it! 🤣

    Its closer at 240..but I'm having trouble downloading..

    Thats more like it...come to papa my son.

    ECM0-168.gif

    giphy (2).gif

    ECH0-240.gif

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.c458554fbd700a129f555cfb95c11f02.png

    image.thumb.png.07ac014d847a209f8a0f075079e4463f.png

    Yes that area of very cold air to north east is not that far away on the ecm. Need the right synoptic pattern to enable the developing area of hp to sink south or better still ssw. It is as so ecm is trying so desperately hard ...

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    A chilly old day again in lowland East London and we look set for a week or so of below average temperatures (not spectacularly so as happened last month) but I think we should be at 10-12c and we'll be at 6-9c for a few days.

    The settled spell looks set to continue through the weekend but next week the Atlantic returns perhaps only briefly but it could be quite a potent spell of rain or wind before heights rise again around mid month but where they end up was a long way from resolution last evening.

    As a wise man once said, you're never more than 24 hours from another day so let's see what T+144 and T+240 might look like courtesy of GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel.

    T+144 (March 10th):

    image.thumb.png.a0b859c18be99a1f0eb06d7d58c896ff.pngimage.thumb.png.29d3dd0504e3a70ec53e25c0af16f208.pngimage.thumb.png.d9c76c1d9abcd07760cd0e17f48c11b8.pngimage.thumb.png.7ad6931464b8ec4517e2ec0102a7ef6f.png

    T+240 (March 14th):

    image.thumb.png.88a1951bbd21bb4f5ac7f5d8bbf5b2e7.pngimage.thumb.png.b5402ad451a5e98bf27eb5dc178958d4.pngimage.thumb.png.c158b613f82dc76aebaf86d1a0817abe.pngimage.thumb.png.1c7478fd306ed0c668eb70becd0b8ec8.png

    The Atlantic takeover is evident across all the models by T+144 with GEM and GFS OP perhaps most progressive at having the core of the trough closest to the meridian. From there, the American models keep the strong Atlantic them through to T+240 but with the trough aligning positively to the west as heights start to raise from the south and south west. GEM and ECM are rather different with signs of amplification. GEM looks to be developing a mid-Atlantic ridge with a shallow LP moving south east down the North Sea but the heights on ECM are further west over Scandinavia with a secondary LP well to the south east of the main trough just to the west of Iberia. Both are potentially interesting evolutions.

    Moving on and let's see if GFS plays catch up or not with T+312 and T+384 charts from OP, Parallel and Control plus CFS:

    T+312 (March 17th):

    image.thumb.png.5c614688477ed9c7e766d8409e23f968.pngimage.thumb.png.01982a978c657a0635d932cfacc00aa4.pngimage.thumb.png.33c3f439f1182f53f957be8ceaea3309.pngimage.thumb.png.d7f22ffaddc16200cd607a428bf19dce.png

    T+384 (March 20th):

    image.thumb.png.3e03d30fb383283872516cb52b9a799f.pngimage.thumb.png.20ea6215ffd308fcec2e4fa743d391fc.pngimage.thumb.png.ccd2d037e19f2440635848d5c4888d6b.pngimage.thumb.png.475bbc6dd93d9f8fee32c781498b2e08.png

    If I had to sum up those eight charts in one word, I'd say "mobile". Atlantic domination supported by a strong PV pulsing very cold air and promoting cyclogenesis and sustaining a powerful zonal jet. Indeed, these wouldn't be out of place in January but the near SSW this year has left the PV stronger later than you might expect and the consequence is whereas you might be seeing some amplification whether cold or warm there's little of that and instead the Atlantic flattens any attempt at heights. It could well be we'll have a stronger PV for longer - OP certainly suggests that at 10HPA, Parallel perhaps less so. That might mean the stormy midwinter conditions become stormy spring conditions and of course with spring tides due the last time some areas will need is or are heavy rain and strong winds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm never discount chance of snow until June, yes chances from April on in the south at least become much slimmer, but often a cold shot from the north can appear out of nowhere coinciding with the disintegration of the PV and cold air spilling out of the arctic.

    This year the PV looks like staying quite robust through March and therefore there will be alot of cold bottled up in the arctic, when released could be potent, though may be a slow release or directed elsewhere.. but April is when this often happens hence the potent northerly  shot, think early April 2008, after a very mild winter!

    Indeed and I think it highly likely northern hills and mountains will see a lot of spring snow this year. The signal for a height rise mid month has faded on GFS but both GEM and particularly ECM look more interesting tonight. The problem is the PV looks stronger later this year and the only chance for those further south is if we can get some negative trough alignment but I don't see it currently - the zonal jet in the next 10-14 days looks far too strong but as you say April can often surprise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.5a834a2932eb24379352ab0a2082941a.png

    Gfs has gone into overdrive on this run. Really winding itself up, although that area of cold to the northeast everpresent...

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    In the medium term the tpv continues to dominate with no high latitude blocking and thus unsettled with temps around the norm. perhaps a tad above, but variable as sytems pass through, The gfs(P) for a change

    ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5766400.thumb.png.c85968a14e18425c79223bb830fe4ce2.pnggfs-deterministic-para-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5766400.thumb.png.543f09e12abbcf959c49e7af4b0fcc0d.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The gefs mean is improving in FI as to IMBY with a general trend away from the Atlantic flush with time.

    D8-16> anim_ljf0.gif

    Pressure gefs London> graphe4_10000_313.216459745_153.528029631___.thumb.png.345bf2971b66bade86cf57719315ad7b.png

    However the hi-res runs remain more zonal. More runs needed for clarification.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    44 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The gefs mean is improving in FI as to IMBY with a general trend away from the Atlantic flush with time.

    D8-16> anim_ljf0.gif

    Pressure gefs London> graphe4_10000_313.216459745_153.528029631___.thumb.png.345bf2971b66bade86cf57719315ad7b.png

    However the hi-res runs remain more zonal. More runs needed for clarification.

     

    Was just going to post the same. Seems to be a bit of a tussle now developing in around 8-10 days time. Some ensemble members want to build pressure, whilst others (like the slightly outlying GFS op this morning) keep it very unsettled.

    The larger cluster in the ECM  00z groups develops an omega block by day 15, while the slightly smaller cluster is a tad more mobile. One to watch with plenty of outcomes on the table.

    image.thumb.png.692d918c34e89cdbd0fadc8a11e1501a.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.9e08963137640492f2b95cdf7ec23988.pngimage.thumb.png.c66ca0d49f21c7dce983bbc2951c56d2.png

    As others have stated a potentially very disturbed spell coming up next week. After all the calm of this week and next few days this will be very noticeable. At least trees not yet in leaf. After this ecm still showing that very cold air to the north east . Variety of outcomes still possible, particularly as temp differences between the air masses becoming more stark at this time of year.

     

     

    image.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    Been watching the system for the middle of next week for a few days now. Modelled to deepen to 960mb by GFS but to lower than 956mb central pressure by ECM, but the main difference is in their handling and timing of the secondary low. The ECM has it whistling through Scotland to the North Sea by 0z Thursday and deepening, maintaining its own centre, while the GFS merges it into a more of a trough hanging down from the main low over the Northern half of Ireland by that time. 

    As others have said, the secondary feature might well become the main interest, as it extends the risk of strong winds further south. The ECM solution would take the strongest winds through Ireland across Northern England to the East of England by the end of Wednesday. If the latest GFS has it right, it will bring a period of strong winds further south over Southern Ireland, transferring through Wales to the Midlands during early hours Thursday then out over East Anglia by breakfast time. Either way it's going to be lively!   

    ECM +144 00z

    ecm500_144.thumb.png.6e41a9848f58201636aa7a9fd163107c.png

    GFS +138 06Z

    h500slp.thumb.png.cd18e1c92bb0a07f2fe69fa344e6f8ff.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Was just going to post the same. Seems to be a bit of a tussle now developing in around 8-10 days time. Some ensemble members want to build pressure, whilst others (like the slightly outlying GFS op this morning) keep it very unsettled.

    The larger cluster in the ECM  00z groups develops an omega block by day 15, while the slightly smaller cluster is a tad more mobile. One to watch with plenty of outcomes on the table.

    image.thumb.png.692d918c34e89cdbd0fadc8a11e1501a.png
     

    Certainly a chance of it turning warmer as we go into the second half of March, unless an omega block builds slightly further north or west than highlighted in cluster 1. 

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