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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    And we’re back to chasing 10 day charts! Well it certainly won’t be a winter to remember. See you all next winter 🙂 signing out. 

     

    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    GFS // pub run - we can go to the pub in a parallel universe, right?  

    Anyway T138 looks really good, Omega block anyone...

    B3D8AB3A-4A48-4B24-94EB-B1578CD4C655.thumb.png.dfdab3907b83db03552490e99c657d27.png

    This is why I love the mod thread... 

    Consistent run at less than 6 days 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think some of the models are overblowing it, but the main reason is it cannot get any closer because of the block.  And the block may be stronger than some of the models, and some forecasters, think.  

    Are we accepting that it is going to turn milder? The Met Office is pretty confident with a press release, Alex Deakin has mentioned it in his broadcast, Marco Petagna has mentioned it in a recent tweet.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Weather-history said:

    Are we accepting that it is going to turn milder? The Met Office is pretty confident with a press release, Alex Deakin has mentioned it in his broadcast, Marco Petagna has mentioned it in a recent tweet.

     

    Yes but possibly days rather than a week

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS // T162, just showing what is in the realms if the possible now, and may become the realm of the probable later (I’ve said before this won’t be nailed til Thursday 12z or Friday 0z:

    8279B822-B47C-4D7D-B244-DF2C020D771B.thumb.png.3cad62a45993e2eff5ba0fe83331f014.png7D5BBBAB-04A5-49C0-A94C-63A335DAC24E.thumb.jpeg.2639dc1a8733aa0e4f637eae3f503c5a.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

    Are we accepting that it is going to turn milder? The Met Office is pretty confident with a press release, Alex Deakin has mentioned it in his broadcast, Marco Petagna has mentioned it in a recent tweet.

     

    Yes, i think so, for a while, but nothing at all off the Atlantic, i think that is the thing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Gem and gfs (with emphasis on the //) possibly picking up the trend yet again? 🤔 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    For what it's worth, mean is a big improvement at 96!

     

    gensnh-31-1-96.png

    gensnh-31-1-102.png

    how?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    No qualms from me regarding the gfs/p as it is very similar to the 12z,..just a tad delay

    the gfs on the other hand is trying to find it's other winter sock,...bless him.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    In these set ups you can normally correlate forward how strong a ridge will develop to the ne with how far south the upstream trigging digs into the mid Atlantic and also how sharp that is.

    And then when the shortwave runs into the base of that , the normal motion caused by that is the troughing gets pulled north or northwest . At that point you’ll get some shortwave energy which you can see towards day 8 , that then needs to eject cleanly se and under any ridging to the ne .

    You must have that clean separation. 

    Edited by nick sussex
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  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp day 9 12z Vs 18z....it’s being fairly consistent....

    BB21039E-69A9-4C2D-B391-5F6285918065.png

    987B93AD-6792-4434-91F6-4E88714C3E52.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Are we accepting that it is going to turn milder? The Met Office is pretty confident with a press release, Alex Deakin has mentioned it in his broadcast, Marco Petagna has mentioned it in a recent tweet.

     

    It can’t stay as cold as it is now Kev !

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs is a mild outlier in terms of the 850's ,2 meter temps and dew points...

    ens_image.thumb.png.1b519f6a94e965c010a9463b3985361b.png377706006_ens_image(1).thumb.png.417e3da507d7ab9ec545ca6cfc65adaa.png1943908534_ens_image(2).thumb.png.0d9a82aabd6b2f54b7690cae90865179.png

    but it stays cold out to the 14th/15th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    In these set ups you can normally correlate forward how strong a ridge will develop to the ne with how far south the upstream trigging digs into the mid Atlantic and also how sharp that is.

    And then when the shortwave runs into the base of that , the normal motion caused by that is the troughing gets pulled north or northwest . At that point you’ll get some shortwave energy which you can see towards day 8 , that then needs to eject cleanly se and under any ridging to the ne .

    You must have that clean separation. 

    A la Jan ‘87 no less. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Come on a bit late today as my nana has just passed away this evening after having covid!!!lived a 100 long years!!!what a fella😔!!!any snow on the 18 models for sunday monday?!!all is not lost it seems on the 18z!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Come on a bit late today as my nana has just passed away this evening after having covid!!!lived a 100 long years!!!what a fella😔!!!any snow on the 18 models for sunday monday?!!all is not lost it seems on the 18z!!?

    So So sorry for your loss....MY thoughts are with you...

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    Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    Come on a bit late today as my nana has just passed away this evening after having covid!!!lived a 100 long years!!!what a fella😔!!!any snow on the 18 models for sunday monday?!!all is not lost it seems on the 18z!!?

    RIP thoughts with you,  better times ahead. Ever so slight improvements but the GFS seems a bit isolated.

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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